ScoreProb
Liga Nacional Guatemala Round 19 2026

Mixco vs Deportivo San Pedro

Mixco Home · Elo 1,543
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Deportivo San Pedro Away · Elo 1,505
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Mixco win
Mixco winPick
53.2%
Draw
29.5%
Deportivo San Pedro win
17.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes41.9%
No58.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.550.2%
Under 2.549.8%

How much we know

Mixco history72 matches
Deportivo San Pedro history5 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 12 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 21:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (53.2%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Mixco are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Mixco are rated 38 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,543 against 1,505. On rating alone Mixco would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.24 goals a game over 72 matches for Mixco, against 1.20 over 5 for Deportivo San Pedro.

  • Deportivo San Pedro concede fewer

    Mixco concede 1.21 a game, Deportivo San Pedro 0.80.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    46% of Mixco matches, against 40% for Deportivo San Pedro. The model puts this match at 50% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Mixco
Deportivo San Pedro
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1542.5
ELO
1504.9
72
ELO · Matches
5
1542.5
Current Team ELO
1504.9
1504.9
Current Opponent ELO
1542.5
37.58
Current ELO Difference
-37.58
0.55
Expected score
0.45
72
History Matches
5
0.03
Residual Mean
0.07
52.66
Overperformance
51.34
-0.09
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.07
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
1.80
1.80
Goals for per game
1.20
1.60
Goals against per game
0.80
60.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
1.80
1.10
Goals for per game
1.20
1.90
Goals against per game
0.80
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.17
1.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.80
1.51
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.75
0.61
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.61
2.32
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.74
Overall performance9 signals
90
72
Matches
5
1.56
PPG
1.80
44.4%
Win rate
60.0%
22.2%
Draw rate
0.0%
33.3%
Loss rate
40.0%
70.8%
Over 1.5 rate
60.0%
45.8%
Over 2.5 rate
40.0%
22.2%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.64
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.74
Venue performance10 signals
100
38
Matches
2
2.26
PPG
0.00
68.4%
Win rate
0.0%
21.1%
Draw rate
0.0%
10.5%
Loss rate
100.0%
57.9%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
42.1%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
26.3%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.27
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.50
38
History Matches
2
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.24
Goals for per game
1.20
72.2%
Scoring rate
60.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
20.0%
1.61
Goals for per game
0.00
84.2%
Scoring rate
0.0%
44.7%
BTTS rate
0.0%
1.80
Goals for per game
1.20
80.0%
Scoring rate
60.0%
40.0%
BTTS rate
20.0%
72
History Matches
5
1.24
Goals Mean
1.20
1.10
Goals Std
1.17
72.2%
Scored 1+ rate
60.0%
36.1%
Scored 2+ rate
40.0%
8.3%
Scored 3+ rate
20.0%
1.61
Venue Goals Mean
0.00
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.21
Goals against per game
0.80
70.8%
Conceding rate
60.0%
0.71
Goals against per game
1.50
52.6%
Conceding rate
100.0%
1.40
Goals against per game
0.80
60.0%
Conceding rate
60.0%
72
History Matches
5
1.21
Conceded Mean
0.80
1.09
Conceded Std
0.75
33.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
20.0%
12.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
0.0%
0.71
Venue Conceded Mean
1.50
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
29.2%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
27.8%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
47.4%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
15.8%
Failed-to-score rate
100.0%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
29.2%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
27.8%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
47.4%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
15.8%
Failed-to-score rate
100.0%
29.2%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
72
History Matches
5
0.97
Result entropy
0.61
1.64
Goal Difference Std
1.74
3.44
Stability score
38.74
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
72
Eligible Matches
5
15
Lead Matches
2
86.7%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
0.91
Lead Points Retention
1.00
24
Trailing Matches
1
16.7%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
8.3%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
72
Halftime Coverage Matches
5
0.43
First Half Goals For Mean
1.00
0.58
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.20
0.81
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.20
0.63
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.60
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.00
Rest days
75.79
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
12
Short Rest History Matches
0
1.08
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
39
Normal Rest History Matches
1
1.56
Normal Rest Points Per Match
3.00
20
Long Rest History Matches
3
1.90
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
1.80
60.0%
Win rate
60.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
40.0%
Loss rate
40.0%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
60.0%
40.0%
Over 2.5 rate
40.0%
40.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.62
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.74
5
Current Competition Matches
5
1.80
Current Competition PPG
1.80
0.40
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.40
4
Competition Season Count
1
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
0.26
Portability PPG Std
—
0.59
Portability PPG Range
—
65.38
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
72
Clean History Matches
5
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scorePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO37.58
PPG-0.24
GF0.04
GA0.41
PPG0.00
PPG2.26
PPG0.00
PPG-0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches67
Clean-sheet rate-0.11
Failed-to-score rate-0.12
History Matches36
Clean-sheet rate47.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.84
History Matches67
Goals Mean0.04
Goals Std-0.07
Scored 1+ rate12.2%
Scored 2+ rate-0.04
Scored 3+ rate-0.12
Venue Goals Mean1.61
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.13
History Matches67
Conceded Mean0.41
Conceded Std0.34
Clean-sheet rate-0.11
Conceded 2+ rate13.3%
Conceded 3+ rate12.5%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.79
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.76
History Matches67
Result entropy0.35
Goal Difference Std-0.10
Stability score-35.30
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.57
Eligible Matches67
Lead Matches13
Lead Win Rate-0.13
Lead Points Retention-0.09
Trailing Matches23
Non-loss rate16.7%
Trailing Win Rate8.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches67
First Half Goals For Mean-0.57
First Half Goals Against Mean0.38
Second Half Goals For Mean0.61
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.03
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.00
Competition Season Count3
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Rest days0.21
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches12
Normal Rest History Matches38
Normal Rest Points Per Match-1.44
Long Rest History Matches17
Long Rest Points Per Match0.90
Current Team ELO37.58
Current Opponent ELO-37.58
Current ELO Difference75.16
Expected score0.11
History Matches67
Residual Mean-0.03
Overperformance1.31
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.15

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Mixco

L
Comunicaciones3–1Mixco2 Nov · away
Pick: Mixco 39% · missed
D
Mixco0–0Xelajú29 Oct · home
Pick: Mixco 47% · missed
D
Mixco0–0Municipal21 Oct · home
Pick: Municipal 42% · missed
W
Mixco3–1Cobán Imperial18 Oct · home
Pick: Mixco 57% · hit
D
Marquense1–1Mixco15 Oct · away
Pick: Mixco 37% · missed

Deportivo San Pedro

W
Deportivo San Pedro1–0Municipal1 Nov · home
Pick: Municipal 45% · missed
L
Antigua GFC1–0Deportivo San Pedro30 Oct · away
Pick: Antigua GFC 61% · hit
D
Deportivo San Pedro2–2Malacateco25 Oct · home
Pick: Deportivo San Pedro 47% · missed
D
Suchitepéquez1–1Deportivo San Pedro16 Oct · away
Pick: Deportivo San Pedro 41% · missed
L
Xelajú2–0Deportivo San Pedro4 Oct · away
Pick: Xelajú 54% · hit

About this match

Mixco and Deportivo San Pedro meet in Liga Nacional on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 21:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Mixco win 53.2%, draw 29.5%, Deportivo San Pedro win 17.3%. The pick is Mixco win. Over 2.5 goals: 50.2%. Both teams to score: 41.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.