ScoreProb
Ligue 1 Algeria Round 1 2026

MC Alger vs MC Oran

MC Alger Home · Elo 1,644
Wed 4 Nov
UTC
Not started
MC Oran Away · Elo 1,548
Ali La Pointe Stadium, Douera Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: MC Alger win
MC Alger winPick
59.4%
Draw
26.3%
MC Oran win
14.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes47.4%
No52.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.545.5%
Under 2.554.5%

How much we know

MC Alger history69 matches
MC Oran history48 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 7 h ahead
    29 Oct · 08:38 UTC
  2. Re-published 16 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 18:58 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    4 Nov · 16:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (59.4%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why MC Alger are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • MC Alger are rated 95 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,644 against 1,548. On rating alone MC Alger would be expected to take 63% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.28 goals a game over 69 matches for MC Alger, against 1.21 over 48 for MC Oran.

  • MC Alger concede fewer

    MC Alger concede 0.70 a game, MC Oran 1.10.

  • MC Oran games more often go over 2.5 goals

    33% of MC Alger matches, against 46% for MC Oran. The model puts this match at 46% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 3 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
MC Alger
MC Oran
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1643.7
ELO
1548.4
69
ELO · Matches
48
1643.7
Current Team ELO
1548.4
1548.4
Current Opponent ELO
1643.7
95.27
Current ELO Difference
-95.27
0.63
Expected score
0.37
69
History Matches
48
0.10
Residual Mean
0.06
58.01
Overperformance
53.90
-0.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.16
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
2.00
1.20
Goals for per game
1.80
1.00
Goals against per game
1.20
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.70
PPG
1.90
1.50
Goals for per game
1.40
1.10
Goals against per game
1.20
50.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
1.02
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.92
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
0.94
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.17
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.62
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.83
Overall performance9 signals
90
69
Matches
48
1.87
PPG
1.48
52.2%
Win rate
43.8%
30.4%
Draw rate
16.7%
17.4%
Loss rate
39.6%
53.6%
Over 1.5 rate
70.8%
33.3%
Over 2.5 rate
45.8%
15.9%
Over 3.5 rate
16.7%
1.27
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.49
Venue performance10 signals
100
35
Matches
23
2.40
PPG
0.91
71.4%
Win rate
26.1%
25.7%
Draw rate
13.0%
2.9%
Loss rate
60.9%
54.3%
Over 1.5 rate
73.9%
42.9%
Over 2.5 rate
43.5%
17.1%
Over 3.5 rate
17.4%
0.96
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.41
35
History Matches
23
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.28
Goals for per game
1.21
71.0%
Scoring rate
68.8%
37.7%
BTTS rate
45.8%
1.57
Goals for per game
0.91
80.0%
Scoring rate
56.5%
40.0%
BTTS rate
43.5%
69
History Matches
48
1.28
Goals Mean
1.21
1.18
Goals Std
1.04
71.0%
Scored 1+ rate
68.8%
36.2%
Scored 2+ rate
39.6%
13.0%
Scored 3+ rate
10.4%
1.57
Venue Goals Mean
0.91
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
0.70
Goals against per game
1.10
49.3%
Conceding rate
70.8%
0.57
Goals against per game
1.43
42.9%
Conceding rate
82.6%
69
History Matches
48
0.70
Conceded Mean
1.10
0.80
Conceded Std
0.90
18.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
33.3%
1.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
6.3%
0.57
Venue Conceded Mean
1.43
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
50.7%
Clean-sheet rate
29.2%
29.0%
Failed-to-score rate
31.3%
57.1%
Clean-sheet rate
17.4%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
43.5%
50.7%
Clean-sheet rate
29.2%
29.0%
Failed-to-score rate
31.3%
57.1%
Clean-sheet rate
17.4%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
43.5%
50.7%
Clean-sheet rate
29.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
69
History Matches
48
0.92
Result entropy
0.93
1.27
Goal Difference Std
1.49
8.46
Stability score
6.51
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
69
Eligible Matches
48
23
Lead Matches
10
87.0%
Lead Win Rate
80.0%
0.91
Lead Points Retention
0.83
7
Trailing Matches
17
42.9%
Non-loss rate
35.3%
28.6%
Trailing Win Rate
23.5%
Goal timing5 signals
50
69
Halftime Coverage Matches
48
0.57
First Half Goals For Mean
0.40
0.25
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.54
0.71
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.81
0.45
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.56
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
93.04
Rest days
99.08
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
0
1.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
45
Normal Rest History Matches
19
2.07
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.68
21
Long Rest History Matches
28
1.43
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.39
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
9
Competition Season Count
5
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.37
Portability PPG Std
0.18
0.87
Portability PPG Range
0.37
57.66
Portability Score
73.17
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
69
Clean History Matches
48
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO95.27
PPG0.39
GF0.07
GA-0.41
PPG1.49
PPG-0.60
PPG-0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches21
Clean-sheet rate21.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.02
History Matches12
Clean-sheet rate39.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.23
History Matches21
Goals Mean0.07
Goals Std0.14
Scored 1+ rate2.3%
Scored 2+ rate-0.03
Scored 3+ rate2.6%
Venue Goals Mean0.66
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.11
History Matches21
Conceded Mean-0.41
Conceded Std-0.09
Clean-sheet rate21.6%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.14
Conceded 3+ rate-0.05
Venue Conceded Mean-0.86
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.22
History Matches21
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std-0.22
Stability score1.95
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.12
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.21
Eligible Matches21
Lead Matches13
Lead Win Rate7.0%
Lead Points Retention0.08
Trailing Matches-10
Non-loss rate7.6%
Trailing Win Rate5.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches21
First Half Goals For Mean0.17
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.30
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.10
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.11
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count4
Eligible Competition Season Count3
Portability PPG Std0.18
Portability PPG Range0.50
Portability Score-15.51
Rest days-6.04
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest History Matches26
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.38
Long Rest History Matches-7
Long Rest Points Per Match0.04
Current Team ELO95.27
Current Opponent ELO-95.27
Current ELO Difference190.5
Expected score0.27
History Matches21
Residual Mean0.05
Overperformance4.12
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.17

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

MC Alger

W
US Biskra0–1MC Alger27 Oct · away
Pick: MC Alger 46% · hit
W
MC Alger3–0Enugu Rangers23 Oct · home
Pick: MC Alger 53% · hit
L
Enugu Rangers2–0MC Alger18 Oct · away
Pick: MC Alger 43% · missed
D
ASO Chlef1–1MC Alger13 Oct · away
Pick: MC Alger 47% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

MC Oran

D
MC Oran0–0Olympique Akbou30 Oct · home
Pick: Draw 37% · hit
D
JS El Biar0–0MC Oran23 Oct · away
Pick: JS El Biar 44% · missed
W
MC Oran1–0Khenchela17 Oct · home
Pick: MC Oran 44% · hit
W
US Biskra0–1MC Oran13 Oct · away
Pick: US Biskra 37% · missed
D
MC Oran0–0ES Setif8 Oct · home
Pick: MC Oran 41% · missed

About this match

MC Alger and MC Oran meet in Ligue 1 on Wednesday 4 November 2026, kickoff 16:00 UTC. The match is played at Ali La Pointe Stadium, Douera. ScoreProb published its prediction on 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC: MC Alger win 59.4%, draw 26.3%, MC Oran win 14.3%. The pick is MC Alger win. Over 2.5 goals: 45.5%. Both teams to score: 47.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.