ScoreProb
AFC Champions League Two World Round 4 2026

Melbourne Victory vs Persib Bandung

Melbourne Victory Home · Elo 1,552
Full time
1–2
Half time 0–0
Wed 4 Nov · 07:45 UTC
Persib Bandung Away · Elo 1,706
AAMI Park, Melbourne Referee: Clifford Postanes Daypuyat, Philippines Pick published 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC, before kickoff
What we said before kickoff Result: Persib Bandung win
Melbourne Victory win
29.7%
Draw
26.5%
Persib Bandung winPick Result
43.8%

How our picks did

Based on the final score. It joins the public record at the next nightly settlement.

3 of 3 hit
Match result
Our pickPersib Bandung win · 43.8%
What happenedPersib Bandung win · we gave it 43.8%
Hit
Over 2.5 goals
Our pickOver · 52.5%
What happenedOver · 3 goals
Hit
Both teams to score
Our pickYes · 51.9%
What happenedYes · 1–2
Hit

How surprising was it?

Result: Persib Bandung win. In our numbers it ranked first of the three.

44%
chance we gave it
0%50%100%
1 in 2.3
on average
A pick at 44% is expected to miss about 6 times in 10. One match does not judge a model. The record across every settled match does.
See the full record

Timeline

Newest at the bottom

34'
Yellow cardJulio Cesar
Yellow cardM. Ghossaini
46'
SubstitutionM. Ghossaini off · Clarismario on
59'
SubstitutionH. Sawyer off · C. Nduka on
60'
SubstitutionX. Stella off · L. D'Arrigo on
60'
Own goalJulio Cesar
71'
73'
SubstitutionUilliam off · L. Menalo on
73'
SubstitutionA. Alis off · M. Klok on
SubstitutionG. May off · M. Grimaldi on
77'
77'
SubstitutionJulio Cesar off · M. Peralta on
SubstitutionB. Hamill off · T. Lockyer on
80'
84'
SubstitutionG. Notsuda off · R. Oratmangoen on
85'
GoalL. Menalo
90'
GoalB. Sekulic · assist M. Peralta
Yellow cardClarismario
90+3'

Lineups

Melbourne Victory 4-2-3-1 · Persib Bandung 3-4-2-1

Substitutes · Melbourne Victory · Coach G. Savarese

  • 24M. Olukhale
  • 15T. Lockyer
  • 44C. Nduka
  • 26Jack Mihailidis
  • 18F. Lino
  • 11Clarismario Rodrigues
  • 6L. D'Arrigo
  • 19O. Dragicevic
  • 14M. Grimaldi
  • 28William Kengni
  • 8J. Valadon
  • 1J. Warshawsky

Substitutes · Persib Bandung · Coach I. Tolić

  • 23M. Klok
  • 11D. Kusnandar
  • 9L. Menalo
  • 77R. Oratmangoen
  • 14T. Paku Alam
  • 10M. Peralta
  • 7B. Putra
  • 5K. Rudianto
  • 60R. Syafaka
  • 40I. Tanamal
  • 19N. Alfaro
  • 97Berguinho

Match stats

Melbourne Victory left, Persib Bandung right

Possession 40% 60%
Shots 12 10
Shots on target 0 4
Corners 1 4
Fouls 9 11
Yellow cards 1 1
Offsides 1 2
Saves 3 0
Pass accuracy 81% 89%

Both teams to score

Yes51.9%
No48.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.552.5%
Under 2.547.5%

How much we know

Melbourne Victory history48 matches
Persib Bandung history66 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Life of this match

Every step is time-stamped, from first prediction to settled result.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 23 h ahead
    29 Oct · 08:38 UTC
  2. Re-published 16 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 18:58 UTC
  3. Lineups publishedThis prediction does not use lineups.
  4. Kickoff
    4 Nov · 07:45 UTC
  5. Full time: 1–2All three of our picks hit
  6. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

Share this result

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How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (43.8%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Persib Bandung are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Persib Bandung are rated 155 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,706 against 1,552. On rating alone Persib Bandung would be expected to take 71% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.60 goals a game over 48 matches for Melbourne Victory, against 1.70 over 66 for Persib Bandung.

  • Persib Bandung concede fewer

    Melbourne Victory concede 1.29 a game, Persib Bandung 0.85.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    52% of Melbourne Victory matches, against 45% for Persib Bandung. The model puts this match at 53% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 20 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Melbourne Victory
Persib Bandung
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1551.6
ELO
1706.3
48
ELO · Matches
66
1551.6
Current Team ELO
1706.3
1706.3
Current Opponent ELO
1551.6
-154.7
Current ELO Difference
154.7
0.29
Expected score
0.71
48
History Matches
66
0.05
Residual Mean
0.16
53.28
Overperformance
62.36
0.10
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.19
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
2.60
1.20
Goals for per game
2.00
0.20
Goals against per game
0.80
40.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
1.60
PPG
2.60
1.80
Goals for per game
1.60
0.80
Goals against per game
0.60
40.0%
Win rate
80.0%
1.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.60
1.66
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.92
0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.60
0.75
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.66
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.46
1.73
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
0.77
Overall performance9 signals
90
48
Matches
66
1.52
PPG
2.18
41.7%
Win rate
65.2%
27.1%
Draw rate
22.7%
31.3%
Loss rate
12.1%
72.9%
Over 1.5 rate
69.7%
52.1%
Over 2.5 rate
45.5%
35.4%
Over 3.5 rate
25.8%
1.82
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.42
Venue performance10 signals
100
22
Matches
30
1.50
PPG
1.77
40.9%
Win rate
50.0%
27.3%
Draw rate
26.7%
31.8%
Loss rate
23.3%
72.7%
Over 1.5 rate
83.3%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
63.3%
36.4%
Over 3.5 rate
36.7%
1.92
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.59
22
History Matches
30
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.60
Goals for per game
1.70
66.7%
Scoring rate
89.4%
47.9%
BTTS rate
47.0%
1.73
Goals for per game
1.77
63.6%
Scoring rate
90.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
63.3%
48
History Matches
66
1.60
Goals Mean
1.70
1.47
Goals Std
1.11
66.7%
Scored 1+ rate
89.4%
52.1%
Scored 2+ rate
50.0%
25.0%
Scored 3+ rate
21.2%
1.73
Venue Goals Mean
1.77
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.29
Goals against per game
0.85
72.9%
Conceding rate
53.0%
1.23
Goals against per game
1.30
81.8%
Conceding rate
73.3%
48
History Matches
66
1.29
Conceded Mean
0.85
1.15
Conceded Std
0.96
35.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
25.8%
14.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
4.5%
1.23
Venue Conceded Mean
1.30
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
27.1%
Clean-sheet rate
47.0%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
10.6%
18.2%
Clean-sheet rate
26.7%
36.4%
Failed-to-score rate
10.0%
27.1%
Clean-sheet rate
47.0%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
10.6%
18.2%
Clean-sheet rate
26.7%
36.4%
Failed-to-score rate
10.0%
27.1%
Clean-sheet rate
47.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
48
History Matches
66
0.98
Result entropy
0.79
1.82
Goal Difference Std
1.42
1.51
Stability score
20.66
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
48
Eligible Matches
66
16
Lead Matches
29
68.8%
Lead Win Rate
96.6%
0.77
Lead Points Retention
0.98
10
Trailing Matches
13
20.0%
Non-loss rate
69.2%
10.0%
Trailing Win Rate
38.5%
Goal timing5 signals
50
48
Halftime Coverage Matches
66
0.71
First Half Goals For Mean
0.64
0.54
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.35
0.90
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.06
0.75
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.50
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.93
Rest days
77.80
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
5
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.20
19
Normal Rest History Matches
42
1.53
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.10
28
Long Rest History Matches
18
1.46
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.33
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
5
Competition Season Count
6
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.09
Portability PPG Std
0.27
0.21
Portability PPG Range
0.74
84.37
Portability Score
64.66
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
48
Clean History Matches
66
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-154.7
PPG-0.66
GF-0.09
GA0.44
PPG-0.27
PPG-1.00
PPG-1.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-18
Clean-sheet rate-0.20
Failed-to-score rate22.7%
History Matches-8
Clean-sheet rate-0.08
Failed-to-score rate26.4%
History Matches-18
Goals Mean-0.09
Goals Std0.35
Scored 1+ rate-0.23
Scored 2+ rate2.1%
Scored 3+ rate3.8%
Venue Goals Mean-0.04
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std0.74
History Matches-18
Conceded Mean0.44
Conceded Std0.20
Clean-sheet rate-0.20
Conceded 2+ rate9.7%
Conceded 3+ rate10.0%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.07
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.09
History Matches-18
Result entropy0.19
Goal Difference Std0.40
Stability score-19.15
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.50
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.96
Eligible Matches-18
Lead Matches-13
Lead Win Rate-0.28
Lead Points Retention-0.21
Trailing Matches-3
Non-loss rate-0.49
Trailing Win Rate-0.28
Halftime Coverage Matches-18
First Half Goals For Mean0.07
First Half Goals Against Mean0.19
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.16
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.25
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.18
Portability PPG Range-0.54
Portability Score19.71
Rest days-0.88
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-5
Normal Rest History Matches-23
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.57
Long Rest History Matches10
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.87
Current Team ELO-154.7
Current Opponent ELO154.7
Current ELO Difference-309.4
Expected score-0.42
History Matches-18
Residual Mean-0.11
Overperformance-9.08
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.09

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Melbourne Victory

D
Melbourne Victory1–1Central Coast Mariners1 Nov · home
Pick: Melbourne Victory 59% · missed
L
Persib Bandung2–0Melbourne Victory28 Oct · away
Pick: Persib Bandung 62% · hit
D
Melbourne Victory1–1Melbourne City24 Oct · home
Pick: Melbourne City 40% · missed
L
Wellington Phoenix2–1Melbourne Victory18 Oct · away
Pick: Melbourne Victory 48% · missed
W
Melbourne Victory3–0FC Seoul14 Oct · home
Pick: FC Seoul 50% · missed

Persib Bandung

W
Persib Bandung4–0Isenmulang Kalteng1 Nov · home
Pick: Persib Bandung 66% · hit
W
Persib Bandung2–0Melbourne Victory28 Oct · home
Pick: Persib Bandung 62% · hit
W
Garudayaksa1–2Persib Bandung25 Oct · away
Pick: Persib Bandung 48% · hit
L
Persepam Madura Utd1–0Persib Bandung22 Oct · away
Pick: Persib Bandung 51% · missed
W
Persib Bandung1–0Persik Kediri18 Oct · home
Pick: Persib Bandung 69% · hit

Match report

Melbourne Victory and Persib Bandung finished 1–2 in AFC Champions League Two on Wednesday 4 November 2026. It was 0–0 at half time. ScoreProb published its prediction on 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC, before kickoff: Melbourne Victory win 29.7%, draw 26.5%, Persib Bandung win 43.8%. All three picks hit.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.