ScoreProb
Botola Pro Morocco Round 7 2026

Moghreb Tetouan vs CODM Meknès

Moghreb Tetouan Home · Elo 1,562
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
CODM Meknès Away · Elo 1,488
Stade Saniat Rmel, Tetouan Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Moghreb Tetouan win
Moghreb Tetouan winPick
48.3%
Draw
32.9%
CODM Meknès win
18.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes46.5%
No53.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.541.2%
Under 2.558.8%

How much we know

Moghreb Tetouan history44 matches
CODM Meknès history41 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

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Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 11 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 20:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (48.3%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Moghreb Tetouan are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Moghreb Tetouan are rated 74 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,562 against 1,488. On rating alone Moghreb Tetouan would be expected to take 60% of the points on offer.

  • Moghreb Tetouan score more

    1.11 goals a game over 44 matches for Moghreb Tetouan, against 0.80 over 41 for CODM Meknès.

  • Moghreb Tetouan concede fewer

    Moghreb Tetouan concede 0.89 a game, CODM Meknès 1.12.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    34% of Moghreb Tetouan matches, against 37% for CODM Meknès. The model puts this match at 41% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 5 Jul 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Moghreb Tetouan
CODM Meknès
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1561.9
ELO
1488.3
44
ELO · Matches
41
1561.9
Current Team ELO
1488.3
1488.3
Current Opponent ELO
1561.9
73.66
Current ELO Difference
-73.66
0.60
Expected score
0.40
44
History Matches
41
0.08
Residual Mean
-0.01
55.31
Overperformance
49.23
0.16
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.12
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.20
PPG
1.00
1.40
Goals for per game
1.40
0.40
Goals against per game
1.60
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
2.10
PPG
0.90
1.40
Goals for per game
1.20
0.70
Goals against per game
1.70
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
0.92
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.87
0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.70
0.78
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.78
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.19
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.02
Overall performance9 signals
90
44
Matches
41
1.73
PPG
1.24
47.7%
Win rate
31.7%
29.5%
Draw rate
29.3%
22.7%
Loss rate
39.0%
61.4%
Over 1.5 rate
58.5%
34.1%
Over 2.5 rate
36.6%
15.9%
Over 3.5 rate
14.6%
1.46
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.42
Venue performance10 signals
100
24
Matches
20
1.96
PPG
0.95
58.3%
Win rate
20.0%
20.8%
Draw rate
35.0%
20.8%
Loss rate
45.0%
62.5%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
33.3%
Over 2.5 rate
40.0%
8.3%
Over 3.5 rate
15.0%
1.52
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.36
24
History Matches
20
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.11
Goals for per game
0.80
70.5%
Scoring rate
56.1%
36.4%
BTTS rate
36.6%
1.17
Goals for per game
0.80
79.2%
Scoring rate
50.0%
37.5%
BTTS rate
45.0%
44
History Matches
41
1.11
Goals Mean
0.80
0.93
Goals Std
0.86
70.5%
Scored 1+ rate
56.1%
31.8%
Scored 2+ rate
19.5%
9.1%
Scored 3+ rate
4.9%
1.17
Venue Goals Mean
0.80
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
0.89
Goals against per game
1.12
54.5%
Conceding rate
61.0%
0.83
Goals against per game
1.30
54.2%
Conceding rate
75.0%
44
History Matches
41
0.89
Conceded Mean
1.12
0.98
Conceded Std
1.11
25.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
36.6%
9.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
12.2%
0.83
Venue Conceded Mean
1.30
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
45.5%
Clean-sheet rate
39.0%
29.5%
Failed-to-score rate
43.9%
45.8%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
20.8%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
45.5%
Clean-sheet rate
39.0%
29.5%
Failed-to-score rate
43.9%
45.8%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
20.8%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
45.5%
Clean-sheet rate
39.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
44
History Matches
41
0.96
Result entropy
0.99
1.46
Goal Difference Std
1.42
4.43
Stability score
0.69
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
44
Eligible Matches
41
14
Lead Matches
4
71.4%
Lead Win Rate
75.0%
0.79
Lead Points Retention
0.83
7
Trailing Matches
11
14.3%
Non-loss rate
9.1%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
44
Halftime Coverage Matches
41
0.43
First Half Goals For Mean
0.20
0.23
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.44
0.68
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.61
0.66
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.68
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
125.2
Rest days
125.1
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
3
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.33
16
Normal Rest History Matches
24
1.94
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.04
26
Long Rest History Matches
13
1.69
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.69
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
4
Competition Season Count
4
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.43
Portability PPG Std
0.13
1.05
Portability PPG Range
0.26
53.77
Portability Score
79.23
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
44
Clean History Matches
41
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO73.66
PPG0.48
GF0.31
GA-0.24
PPG1.01
PPG1.20
PPG1.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate6.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.14
History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate20.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.29
History Matches3
Goals Mean0.31
Goals Std0.07
Scored 1+ rate14.4%
Scored 2+ rate12.3%
Scored 3+ rate4.2%
Venue Goals Mean0.37
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std0.04
History Matches3
Conceded Mean-0.24
Conceded Std-0.13
Clean-sheet rate6.4%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.12
Conceded 3+ rate-0.03
Venue Conceded Mean-0.47
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.00
History Matches3
Result entropy-0.04
Goal Difference Std0.04
Stability score3.74
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.12
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.16
Eligible Matches3
Lead Matches10
Lead Win Rate-0.04
Lead Points Retention-0.05
Trailing Matches-4
Non-loss rate5.2%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches3
First Half Goals For Mean0.24
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.21
Second Half Goals For Mean0.07
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.02
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.30
Portability PPG Range0.79
Portability Score-25.46
Rest days0.08
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.33
Normal Rest History Matches-8
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.90
Long Rest History Matches13
Long Rest Points Per Match0.00
Current Team ELO73.66
Current Opponent ELO-73.66
Current ELO Difference147.3
Expected score0.21
History Matches3
Residual Mean0.09
Overperformance6.08
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.28

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Moghreb Tetouan

L
Wydad AC1–0Moghreb Tetouan31 Oct · away
Pick: Wydad AC 53% · hit
L
Moghreb Tetouan0–3Widad Témara24 Oct · home
Pick: Moghreb Tetouan 50% · missed
L
Difaa EL Jadida4–1Moghreb Tetouan17 Oct · away
Pick: Draw 35% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

CODM Meknès

D
CODM Meknès0–0FAR Rabat1 Nov · home
Pick: FAR Rabat 42% · missed
W
Amal Tiznit1–2CODM Meknès24 Oct · away
Pick: Draw 36% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Moghreb Tetouan and CODM Meknès meet in Botola Pro on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 20:00 UTC. The match is played at Stade Saniat Rmel, Tetouan. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Moghreb Tetouan win 48.3%, draw 32.9%, CODM Meknès win 18.8%. The pick is Moghreb Tetouan win. Over 2.5 goals: 41.2%. Both teams to score: 46.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.