ScoreProb
Serie D - Girone E Italy Group E - 11 2026

Montevarchi Calcio vs Sasso Marconi Zola

Montevarchi Calcio Home · Elo 1,508
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Sasso Marconi Zola Away · Elo 1,439
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Montevarchi Calcio win
Montevarchi Calcio winPick
56.3%
Draw
28.3%
Sasso Marconi Zola win
15.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes44.9%
No55.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.542.0%
Under 2.558.0%

How much we know

Montevarchi Calcio history50 matches
Sasso Marconi Zola history29 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 13:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (56.3%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Montevarchi Calcio are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Montevarchi Calcio are rated 69 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,508 against 1,439. On rating alone Montevarchi Calcio would be expected to take 60% of the points on offer.

  • Sasso Marconi Zola score more

    0.80 goals a game over 50 matches for Montevarchi Calcio, against 0.93 over 29 for Sasso Marconi Zola.

  • Montevarchi Calcio concede fewer

    Montevarchi Calcio concede 0.94 a game, Sasso Marconi Zola 1.38.

  • Sasso Marconi Zola games more often go over 2.5 goals

    24% of Montevarchi Calcio matches, against 45% for Sasso Marconi Zola. The model puts this match at 42% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 20 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Montevarchi Calcio
Sasso Marconi Zola
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1507.5
ELO
1438.9
50
ELO · Matches
29
1507.5
Current Team ELO
1438.9
1438.9
Current Opponent ELO
1507.5
68.63
Current ELO Difference
-68.63
0.60
Expected score
0.40
50
History Matches
29
0.01
Residual Mean
-0.11
50.58
Overperformance
43.64
0.03
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.08
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
1.00
0.40
Goals for per game
0.80
0.40
Goals against per game
1.40
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
0.90
0.60
Goals for per game
0.80
0.40
Goals against per game
1.50
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
0.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.80
0.66
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.75
0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
0.49
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.02
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
0.75
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.27
Overall performance9 signals
90
50
Matches
29
1.20
PPG
0.90
22.0%
Win rate
20.7%
54.0%
Draw rate
27.6%
24.0%
Loss rate
51.7%
54.0%
Over 1.5 rate
65.5%
24.0%
Over 2.5 rate
44.8%
16.0%
Over 3.5 rate
24.1%
1.22
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.30
Venue performance10 signals
100
25
Matches
15
1.20
PPG
0.80
20.0%
Win rate
13.3%
60.0%
Draw rate
40.0%
20.0%
Loss rate
46.7%
56.0%
Over 1.5 rate
46.7%
20.0%
Over 2.5 rate
26.7%
12.0%
Over 3.5 rate
13.3%
1.29
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.15
25
History Matches
15
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
0.80
Goals for per game
0.93
56.0%
Scoring rate
62.1%
40.0%
BTTS rate
55.2%
0.72
Goals for per game
0.60
52.0%
Scoring rate
46.7%
36.0%
BTTS rate
40.0%
50
History Matches
29
0.80
Goals Mean
0.93
0.87
Goals Std
0.91
56.0%
Scored 1+ rate
62.1%
18.0%
Scored 2+ rate
24.1%
6.0%
Scored 3+ rate
6.9%
0.72
Venue Goals Mean
0.60
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
0.94
Goals against per game
1.38
56.0%
Conceding rate
75.9%
0.88
Goals against per game
1.07
52.0%
Conceding rate
66.7%
50
History Matches
29
0.94
Conceded Mean
1.38
1.08
Conceded Std
1.16
24.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
37.9%
10.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
17.2%
0.88
Venue Conceded Mean
1.07
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
44.0%
Clean-sheet rate
24.1%
44.0%
Failed-to-score rate
37.9%
48.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
48.0%
Failed-to-score rate
53.3%
44.0%
Clean-sheet rate
24.1%
44.0%
Failed-to-score rate
37.9%
48.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
48.0%
Failed-to-score rate
53.3%
44.0%
Clean-sheet rate
24.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
50
History Matches
29
0.92
Result entropy
0.93
1.22
Goal Difference Std
1.30
8.22
Stability score
6.95
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
48
Eligible Matches
29
10
Lead Matches
4
40.0%
Lead Win Rate
50.0%
0.53
Lead Points Retention
0.50
12
Trailing Matches
14
50.0%
Non-loss rate
14.3%
8.3%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
48
Halftime Coverage Matches
29
0.33
First Half Goals For Mean
0.24
0.35
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.72
0.50
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.69
0.63
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.66
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
80.88
Rest days
182.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
39
Normal Rest History Matches
22
1.26
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.86
10
Long Rest History Matches
6
1.10
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.17
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
4
Competition Season Count
1
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
0.21
Portability PPG Std
—
0.42
Portability PPG Range
—
70.21
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
50
Clean History Matches
29
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO68.63
PPG0.30
GF-0.13
GA-0.44
PPG0.40
PPG0.20
PPG0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches21
Clean-sheet rate19.9%
Failed-to-score rate6.1%
History Matches10
Clean-sheet rate14.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.05
History Matches21
Goals Mean-0.13
Goals Std-0.04
Scored 1+ rate-0.06
Scored 2+ rate-0.06
Scored 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Goals Mean0.12
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.09
History Matches21
Conceded Mean-0.44
Conceded Std-0.07
Clean-sheet rate19.9%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.14
Conceded 3+ rate-0.07
Venue Conceded Mean-0.19
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.53
History Matches21
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.09
Stability score1.26
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.21
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.52
Eligible Matches19
Lead Matches6
Lead Win Rate-0.10
Lead Points Retention0.03
Trailing Matches-2
Non-loss rate35.7%
Trailing Win Rate8.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches19
First Half Goals For Mean0.09
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.37
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.19
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.03
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count3
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Rest days-101.1
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches17
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.39
Long Rest History Matches4
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.07
Current Team ELO68.63
Current Opponent ELO-68.63
Current ELO Difference137.3
Expected score0.20
History Matches21
Residual Mean0.12
Overperformance6.94
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.11

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Montevarchi Calcio

L
San Donato Tavarnelle1–0Montevarchi Calcio1 Nov · away
Pick: San Donato Tavarnelle 43% · hit
W
Montevarchi Calcio1–0Grassina25 Oct · home
Pick: Montevarchi Calcio 61% · hit
W
Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano0–3Montevarchi Calcio18 Oct · away
Pick: Montevarchi Calcio 37% · hit
L
Ternana4–1Montevarchi Calcio4 Oct · away
Pick: Ternana 52% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Sasso Marconi Zola

W
Sasso Marconi Zola4–0Progresso1 Nov · home
Pick: Progresso 45% · missed
L
Piacenza2–0Sasso Marconi Zola28 Oct · away
Pick: Piacenza 65% · hit
L
Tau Altopascio2–1Sasso Marconi Zola25 Oct · away
Pick: Tau Altopascio 56% · hit
W
Sasso Marconi Zola2–0Lucchese18 Oct · home
Pick: Sasso Marconi Zola 44% · hit
W
Sasso Marconi Zola1–0Cittadella Vis Modena7 Oct · home
Pick: Cittadella Vis Modena 43% · missed

About this match

Montevarchi Calcio and Sasso Marconi Zola meet in Serie D - Girone E on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 13:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Montevarchi Calcio win 56.3%, draw 28.3%, Sasso Marconi Zola win 15.4%. The pick is Montevarchi Calcio win. Over 2.5 goals: 42.0%. Both teams to score: 44.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.