ScoreProb
Serie D - Girone E Italy Group E - 11 2026

Scandicci vs Flaminia

Scandicci Home · Elo 1,514
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Flaminia Away · Elo 1,539
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Flaminia win
Scandicci win
31.6%
Draw
26.5%
Flaminia winPick
42.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes50.8%
No49.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.548.9%
Under 2.551.1%

How much we know

Scandicci history35 matches
Flaminia history50 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 13:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (42.0%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Flaminia are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,514 against 1,539. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Flaminia score more

    1.11 goals a game over 35 matches for Scandicci, against 1.62 over 50 for Flaminia.

  • Scandicci concede fewer

    Scandicci concede 0.97 a game, Flaminia 1.26.

  • Flaminia games more often go over 2.5 goals

    23% of Scandicci matches, against 48% for Flaminia. The model puts this match at 49% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 1 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Scandicci
Flaminia
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1514.0
ELO
1538.8
35
ELO · Matches
50
1514.0
Current Team ELO
1538.8
1538.8
Current Opponent ELO
1514.0
-24.85
Current ELO Difference
24.85
0.46
Expected score
0.54
35
History Matches
50
0.02
Residual Mean
0.03
51.10
Overperformance
52.43
-0.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.05
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
1.00
0.60
Goals for per game
1.60
1.40
Goals against per game
2.60
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
1.30
1.20
Goals for per game
1.70
1.40
Goals against per game
1.80
30.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.70
1.08
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.42
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.80
0.92
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.60
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.08
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.43
Overall performance9 signals
90
35
Matches
50
1.37
PPG
1.52
31.4%
Win rate
40.0%
42.9%
Draw rate
32.0%
25.7%
Loss rate
28.0%
68.6%
Over 1.5 rate
82.0%
22.9%
Over 2.5 rate
48.0%
14.3%
Over 3.5 rate
34.0%
1.36
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.81
Venue performance10 signals
100
17
Matches
26
1.65
PPG
1.62
41.2%
Win rate
42.3%
41.2%
Draw rate
34.6%
17.6%
Loss rate
23.1%
94.1%
Over 1.5 rate
84.6%
41.2%
Over 2.5 rate
53.8%
23.5%
Over 3.5 rate
46.2%
1.61
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.08
17
History Matches
26
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.11
Goals for per game
1.62
71.4%
Scoring rate
82.0%
48.6%
BTTS rate
54.0%
1.65
Goals for per game
1.85
88.2%
Scoring rate
84.6%
64.7%
BTTS rate
53.8%
35
History Matches
50
1.11
Goals Mean
1.62
1.09
Goals Std
1.26
71.4%
Scored 1+ rate
82.0%
25.7%
Scored 2+ rate
44.0%
5.7%
Scored 3+ rate
22.0%
1.65
Venue Goals Mean
1.85
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
0.97
Goals against per game
1.26
68.6%
Conceding rate
66.0%
1.12
Goals against per game
1.42
70.6%
Conceding rate
65.4%
35
History Matches
50
0.97
Conceded Mean
1.26
0.84
Conceded Std
1.23
22.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
40.0%
5.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
14.0%
1.12
Venue Conceded Mean
1.42
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
31.4%
Clean-sheet rate
34.0%
28.6%
Failed-to-score rate
18.0%
29.4%
Clean-sheet rate
34.6%
11.8%
Failed-to-score rate
15.4%
31.4%
Clean-sheet rate
34.0%
28.6%
Failed-to-score rate
18.0%
29.4%
Clean-sheet rate
34.6%
11.8%
Failed-to-score rate
15.4%
31.4%
Clean-sheet rate
34.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
35
History Matches
50
0.98
Result entropy
0.99
1.36
Goal Difference Std
1.81
2.05
Stability score
1.01
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
35
Eligible Matches
49
10
Lead Matches
17
70.0%
Lead Win Rate
82.4%
0.80
Lead Points Retention
0.86
7
Trailing Matches
12
57.1%
Non-loss rate
33.3%
14.3%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
35
Halftime Coverage Matches
49
0.57
First Half Goals For Mean
0.80
0.40
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.61
0.54
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.86
0.57
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.67
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
99.90
Rest days
104.9
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
2
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.00
29
Normal Rest History Matches
33
1.38
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.64
5
Long Rest History Matches
14
1.60
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.29
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
3
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
—
Portability PPG Std
0.11
—
Portability PPG Range
0.23
—
Portability Score
81.40
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
35
Clean History Matches
50
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-24.85
PPG-0.15
GF-0.51
GA-0.29
PPG0.03
PPG-0.20
PPG0.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-15
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Failed-to-score rate10.6%
History Matches-9
Clean-sheet rate-0.05
Failed-to-score rate-0.04
History Matches-15
Goals Mean-0.51
Goals Std-0.17
Scored 1+ rate-0.11
Scored 2+ rate-0.18
Scored 3+ rate-0.16
Venue Goals Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.34
History Matches-15
Conceded Mean-0.29
Conceded Std-0.39
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Conceded 2+ rate-0.17
Conceded 3+ rate-0.08
Venue Conceded Mean-0.31
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.68
History Matches-15
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.45
Stability score1.04
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.35
Eligible Matches-14
Lead Matches-7
Lead Win Rate-0.12
Lead Points Retention-0.06
Trailing Matches-5
Non-loss rate23.8%
Trailing Win Rate14.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches-14
First Half Goals For Mean-0.22
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.21
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.31
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.10
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Rest days-5.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest History Matches-4
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.26
Long Rest History Matches-9
Long Rest Points Per Match0.31
Current Team ELO-24.85
Current Opponent ELO24.85
Current ELO Difference-49.71
Expected score-0.07
History Matches-15
Residual Mean-0.02
Overperformance-1.32
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.01

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Scandicci

L
Gavorrano3–2Scandicci1 Nov · away
Pick: Gavorrano 46% · hit
W
Scandicci2–1San Donato Tavarnelle25 Oct · home
Pick: San Donato Tavarnelle 40% · missed
L
Terranuova Traiana1–0Scandicci18 Oct · away
Pick: Terranuova Traiana 46% · hit
W
Sasso Marconi Zola0–2Scandicci4 Oct · away
Pick: Scandicci 37% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Flaminia

W
Flaminia2–0Tau Altopascio1 Nov · home
Pick: Tau Altopascio 39% · missed
D
Prato1–1Flaminia25 Oct · away
Pick: Prato 42% · missed
D
Flaminia1–1Mezzolara18 Oct · home
Pick: Flaminia 67% · missed
L
Flaminia0–3Robur Siena7 Oct · home
Pick: Flaminia 50% · missed
D
Flaminia1–1Gavorrano4 Oct · home
Pick: Flaminia 40% · missed

About this match

Scandicci and Flaminia meet in Serie D - Girone E on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 13:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Scandicci win 31.6%, draw 26.5%, Flaminia win 42.0%. The pick is Flaminia win. Over 2.5 goals: 48.9%. Both teams to score: 50.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.