ScoreProb
Serie D - Girone E Italy Group E - 11 2026

Progresso vs Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano

Progresso Home · Elo 1,481
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano Away · Elo 1,459
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Progresso win
Progresso winPick
37.0%
Draw
31.3%
Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano win
31.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes50.1%
No49.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.546.9%
Under 2.553.1%

How much we know

Progresso history49 matches
Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano history49 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 13:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (37.0%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Progresso are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,481 against 1,459. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano score more

    1.08 goals a game over 49 matches for Progresso, against 1.43 over 49 for Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano.

  • Progresso concede fewer

    Progresso concede 1.16 a game, Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano 1.35.

  • Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano games more often go over 2.5 goals

    39% of Progresso matches, against 49% for Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano. The model puts this match at 47% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 3 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Progresso
Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1480.9
ELO
1459.2
49
ELO · Matches
49
1480.9
Current Team ELO
1459.2
1459.2
Current Opponent ELO
1480.9
21.70
Current ELO Difference
-21.70
0.53
Expected score
0.47
49
History Matches
49
-0.02
Residual Mean
-0.05
48.61
Overperformance
46.63
0.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.14
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.20
PPG
0.80
2.00
Goals for per game
0.20
0.80
Goals against per game
1.00
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
1.00
1.10
Goals for per game
1.10
1.10
Goals against per game
1.60
30.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.10
1.22
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.76
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.60
0.83
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.36
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.61
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.20
Overall performance9 signals
90
49
Matches
49
1.22
PPG
1.24
32.7%
Win rate
32.7%
24.5%
Draw rate
26.5%
42.9%
Loss rate
40.8%
65.3%
Over 1.5 rate
77.6%
38.8%
Over 2.5 rate
49.0%
14.3%
Over 3.5 rate
22.4%
1.43
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.03
Venue performance10 signals
100
24
Matches
26
1.13
PPG
0.88
29.2%
Win rate
23.1%
25.0%
Draw rate
19.2%
45.8%
Loss rate
57.7%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
69.2%
33.3%
Over 2.5 rate
46.2%
12.5%
Over 3.5 rate
15.4%
1.35
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.42
24
History Matches
26
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.08
Goals for per game
1.43
63.3%
Scoring rate
65.3%
44.9%
BTTS rate
49.0%
0.96
Goals for per game
1.00
54.2%
Scoring rate
57.7%
41.7%
BTTS rate
46.2%
49
History Matches
49
1.08
Goals Mean
1.43
1.08
Goals Std
1.60
63.3%
Scored 1+ rate
65.3%
30.6%
Scored 2+ rate
36.7%
10.2%
Scored 3+ rate
20.4%
0.96
Venue Goals Mean
1.00
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.16
Goals against per game
1.35
73.5%
Conceding rate
79.6%
0.96
Goals against per game
1.42
79.2%
Conceding rate
88.5%
49
History Matches
49
1.16
Conceded Mean
1.35
0.98
Conceded Std
1.02
30.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
38.8%
10.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
12.2%
0.96
Venue Conceded Mean
1.42
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
26.5%
Clean-sheet rate
20.4%
36.7%
Failed-to-score rate
34.7%
20.8%
Clean-sheet rate
11.5%
45.8%
Failed-to-score rate
42.3%
26.5%
Clean-sheet rate
20.4%
36.7%
Failed-to-score rate
34.7%
20.8%
Clean-sheet rate
11.5%
45.8%
Failed-to-score rate
42.3%
26.5%
Clean-sheet rate
20.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
49
History Matches
49
0.98
Result entropy
0.99
1.43
Goal Difference Std
2.03
2.32
Stability score
1.40
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
49
Eligible Matches
48
11
Lead Matches
13
72.7%
Lead Win Rate
76.9%
0.82
Lead Points Retention
0.85
15
Trailing Matches
18
20.0%
Non-loss rate
33.3%
6.7%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
49
Halftime Coverage Matches
48
0.43
First Half Goals For Mean
0.65
0.55
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.83
0.65
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.75
0.61
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.54
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
189.0
Rest days
190.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
0
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
39
Normal Rest History Matches
40
1.26
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.25
8
Long Rest History Matches
8
1.25
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.38
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
3
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.18
Portability PPG Std
0.16
0.35
Portability PPG Range
0.32
73.91
Portability Score
75.56
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
49
Clean History Matches
49
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO21.70
PPG-0.02
GF-0.35
GA-0.18
PPG0.24
PPG1.40
PPG0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate6.1%
Failed-to-score rate2.0%
History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate9.3%
Failed-to-score rate3.5%
History Matches0
Goals Mean-0.35
Goals Std-0.52
Scored 1+ rate-0.02
Scored 2+ rate-0.06
Scored 3+ rate-0.10
Venue Goals Mean-0.04
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.54
History Matches0
Conceded Mean-0.18
Conceded Std-0.05
Clean-sheet rate6.1%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.08
Conceded 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Conceded Mean-0.46
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.53
History Matches0
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.60
Stability score0.92
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.17
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.59
Eligible Matches1
Lead Matches-2
Lead Win Rate-0.04
Lead Points Retention-0.03
Trailing Matches-3
Non-loss rate-0.13
Trailing Win Rate6.7%
Halftime Coverage Matches1
First Half Goals For Mean-0.22
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.28
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.10
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.07
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.01
Portability PPG Range0.03
Portability Score-1.64
Rest days-0.98
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.01
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.13
Current Team ELO21.70
Current Opponent ELO-21.70
Current ELO Difference43.39
Expected score0.06
History Matches0
Residual Mean0.03
Overperformance1.98
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.16

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Progresso

L
Sasso Marconi Zola4–0Progresso1 Nov · away
Pick: Progresso 45% · missed
L
Progresso0–1Ternana25 Oct · home
Pick: Ternana 45% · hit
L
Grassina1–0Progresso18 Oct · away
Pick: Progresso 37% · missed
L
Rondinella2–1Progresso4 Oct · away
Pick: Progresso 37% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano

L
Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano0–4Robur Siena1 Nov · home
Pick: Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano 45% · missed
D
Lucchese1–1Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano25 Oct · away
Pick: Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano 44% · missed
L
Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano0–3Montevarchi Calcio18 Oct · home
Pick: Montevarchi Calcio 37% · hit
L
Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano0–1Tau Altopascio4 Oct · home
Pick: Tau Altopascio 45% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Progresso and Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano meet in Serie D - Girone E on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 13:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Progresso win 37.0%, draw 31.3%, Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano win 31.7%. The pick is Progresso win. Over 2.5 goals: 46.9%. Both teams to score: 50.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.