ScoreProb
3. liga - West Slovakia West - 15 2026

MŠK Senec vs Nitra

MŠK Senec Home · Elo 1,510
Fri 13 Nov
UTC
Not started
Nitra Away · Elo 1,556
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 7 Nov, 08:56 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Nitra win
MŠK Senec win
28.5%
Draw
21.8%
Nitra winPick
49.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes53.1%
No46.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.560.3%
Under 2.539.7%

How much we know

MŠK Senec history36 matches
Nitra history12 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 8 h ahead
    7 Nov · 08:56 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    13 Nov · 17:30 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,663 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,748
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,387
50–59% Won 55.7% · said 54.4% · n 3,845
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,914
70–79% Won 76.0% · said 73.9% · n 601
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 168
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (49.7%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,387 matches.

Why Nitra are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Nitra are rated 46 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,556 against 1,510. On rating alone Nitra would be expected to take 57% of the points on offer.

  • Nitra score more

    1.61 goals a game over 36 matches for MŠK Senec, against 2.42 over 12 for Nitra.

  • Nitra concede fewer

    MŠK Senec concede 1.47 a game, Nitra 0.83.

  • Nitra games more often go over 2.5 goals

    58% of MŠK Senec matches, against 67% for Nitra. The model puts this match at 60% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
MŠK Senec
Nitra@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1510.1
ELO
1556.3
36
ELO · Matches
12
1510.1
Current Team ELO
1556.3
1556.3
Current Opponent ELO
1510.1
-46.15
Current ELO Difference
46.15
0.43
Expected score
0.57
36
History Matches
12
0.02
Residual Mean
0.25
51.16
Overperformance
59.37
-0.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.30
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
2.60
1.40
Goals for per game
2.60
2.60
Goals against per game
0.60
60.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
2.30
1.00
Goals for per game
2.40
1.80
Goals against per game
0.90
40.0%
Win rate
70.0%
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.40
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.50
1.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.90
1.83
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.04
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
2.36
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.63
Overall performance9 signals
90
36
Matches
12
1.56
PPG
2.17
47.2%
Win rate
66.7%
13.9%
Draw rate
16.7%
38.9%
Loss rate
16.7%
83.3%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
58.3%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
27.8%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
2.30
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.93
Venue performance10 signals
100
19
Matches
5
1.74
PPG
2.00
52.6%
Win rate
60.0%
15.8%
Draw rate
20.0%
31.6%
Loss rate
20.0%
73.7%
Over 1.5 rate
60.0%
57.9%
Over 2.5 rate
40.0%
31.6%
Over 3.5 rate
40.0%
1.91
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.28
19
History Matches
5
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.61
Goals for per game
2.42
72.2%
Scoring rate
75.0%
47.2%
BTTS rate
41.7%
1.53
Goals for per game
2.40
73.7%
Scoring rate
60.0%
47.4%
BTTS rate
20.0%
1.67
Goals for per game
2.67
66.7%
Scoring rate
66.7%
66.7%
BTTS rate
66.7%
36
History Matches
12
1.61
Goals Mean
2.42
1.44
Goals Std
1.71
72.2%
Scored 1+ rate
75.0%
47.2%
Scored 2+ rate
75.0%
27.8%
Scored 3+ rate
50.0%
1.53
Venue Goals Mean
2.40
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.47
Goals against per game
0.83
75.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
1.32
Goals against per game
0.40
73.7%
Conceding rate
40.0%
1.67
Goals against per game
1.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
66.7%
36
History Matches
12
1.47
Conceded Mean
0.83
1.44
Conceded Std
0.99
44.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
25.0%
8.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
8.3%
1.32
Venue Conceded Mean
0.40
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
27.8%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
26.3%
Clean-sheet rate
60.0%
26.3%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
27.8%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
26.3%
Clean-sheet rate
60.0%
26.3%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
36
History Matches
12
0.91
Result entropy
0.79
2.30
Goal Difference Std
1.93
9.36
Stability score
21.03
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
35
Eligible Matches
12
12
Lead Matches
7
75.0%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
0.81
Lead Points Retention
1.00
5
Trailing Matches
1
20.0%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
20.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
35
Halftime Coverage Matches
12
0.77
First Half Goals For Mean
1.08
0.46
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.25
0.89
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.33
0.91
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.58
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
84.04
Rest days
82.15
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
0
1.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
18
Normal Rest History Matches
2
1.78
Normal Rest Points Per Match
3.00
15
Long Rest History Matches
9
1.40
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.22
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
2.00
PPG
2.33
66.7%
Win rate
66.7%
0.0%
Draw rate
33.3%
33.3%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
66.7%
1.41
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.70
3
Current Competition Matches
3
2.00
Current Competition PPG
2.33
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.67
4
Competition Season Count
5
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.30
Portability PPG Std
0.17
0.73
Portability PPG Range
0.33
62.22
Portability Score
75.00
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
36
Clean History Matches
12
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-46.15
PPG-0.61
GF-0.81
GA0.64
PPG-0.33
PPG-0.26
PPG-0.80
PPG-0.90
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches24
Clean-sheet rate-0.25
Failed-to-score rate2.8%
History Matches14
Clean-sheet rate-0.34
Failed-to-score rate-0.14
History Matches24
Goals Mean-0.81
Goals Std-0.27
Scored 1+ rate-0.03
Scored 2+ rate-0.28
Scored 3+ rate-0.22
Venue Goals Mean-0.87
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.40
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.50
History Matches24
Conceded Mean0.64
Conceded Std0.46
Clean-sheet rate-0.25
Conceded 2+ rate19.4%
Conceded 3+ rate0.0%
Venue Conceded Mean0.92
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.79
History Matches24
Result entropy0.12
Goal Difference Std0.36
Stability score-11.67
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.23
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.73
Eligible Matches23
Lead Matches5
Lead Win Rate-0.25
Lead Points Retention-0.19
Trailing Matches4
Non-loss rate20.0%
Trailing Win Rate20.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches23
First Half Goals For Mean-0.31
First Half Goals Against Mean0.21
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.45
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.33
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.67
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.14
Portability PPG Range0.40
Portability Score-12.78
Rest days1.90
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest History Matches16
Normal Rest Points Per Match-1.22
Long Rest History Matches6
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.82
Current Team ELO-46.15
Current Opponent ELO46.15
Current ELO Difference-92.29
Expected score-0.13
History Matches24
Residual Mean-0.23
Overperformance-8.21
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.34

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

MŠK Senec

W
Trenčín II0–1MŠK Senec25 Oct · away
Pick: Trenčín II 48% · missed
D
MŠK Senec2–2Beluša21 Oct · home
Pick: Beluša 51% · missed
W
MŠK Senec1–0Nové Zámky16 Oct · home
Pick: Nové Zámky 40% · missed
L
Slovan Duslo Šaľa3–1MŠK Senec29 Aug · away
Pick: MŠK Senec 42% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Nitra

W
Nitra5–1Komárno II24 Oct · home
Pick: Nitra 73% · hit
W
Beluša2–4Nitra18 Oct · away
Pick: Beluša 55% · missed
W
Trenčín II2–4Nitra4 Oct · away
Pick: Nitra 42% · hit
W
Nitra2–0Baník Prievidza29 Aug · home
Pick: Nitra 51% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

MŠK Senec and Nitra meet in 3. liga - West on Friday 13 November 2026, kickoff 17:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 7 Nov, 08:56 UTC: MŠK Senec win 28.5%, draw 21.8%, Nitra win 49.7%. The pick is Nitra win. Over 2.5 goals: 60.3%. Both teams to score: 53.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.