ScoreProb
Liga Nacional Guatemala Round 19 2026

Municipal vs Aurora

Municipal Home · Elo 1,655
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Aurora Away · Elo 1,467
Estadio Manuel Felipe Carrera, Guatemala City Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Municipal win
Municipal winPick
65.7%
Draw
22.4%
Aurora win
11.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes47.9%
No52.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.554.0%
Under 2.546.0%

How much we know

Municipal history82 matches
Aurora history62 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 14 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 23:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (65.7%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why Municipal are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Municipal are rated 189 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,655 against 1,467. On rating alone Municipal would be expected to take 75% of the points on offer.

  • Municipal score more

    1.51 goals a game over 82 matches for Municipal, against 1.13 over 62 for Aurora.

  • Municipal concede fewer

    Municipal concede 0.80 a game, Aurora 1.27.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    43% of Municipal matches, against 42% for Aurora. The model puts this match at 54% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Municipal
Aurora
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1655.4
ELO
1466.6
82
ELO · Matches
62
1655.4
Current Team ELO
1466.6
1466.6
Current Opponent ELO
1655.4
188.7
Current ELO Difference
-188.7
0.75
Expected score
0.25
82
History Matches
62
0.09
Residual Mean
-0.02
57.22
Overperformance
48.37
0.19
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.21
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.40
PPG
1.20
1.40
Goals for per game
1.60
0.40
Goals against per game
1.80
80.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
2.50
PPG
0.70
2.10
Goals for per game
0.90
0.50
Goals against per game
1.80
80.0%
Win rate
20.0%
2.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.90
1.37
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.14
0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.80
0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.98
0.58
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
1.56
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.58
Overall performance9 signals
90
82
Matches
62
1.91
PPG
1.37
54.9%
Win rate
37.1%
26.8%
Draw rate
25.8%
18.3%
Loss rate
37.1%
67.1%
Over 1.5 rate
62.9%
42.7%
Over 2.5 rate
41.9%
17.1%
Over 3.5 rate
27.4%
1.32
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.44
Venue performance10 signals
100
40
Matches
29
2.43
PPG
0.69
75.0%
Win rate
13.8%
17.5%
Draw rate
27.6%
7.5%
Loss rate
58.6%
72.5%
Over 1.5 rate
72.4%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
55.2%
17.5%
Over 3.5 rate
31.0%
1.28
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.53
40
History Matches
29
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.51
Goals for per game
1.13
82.9%
Scoring rate
67.7%
50.0%
BTTS rate
46.8%
1.88
Goals for per game
0.86
95.0%
Scoring rate
55.2%
50.0%
BTTS rate
48.3%
1.60
Goals for per game
1.60
80.0%
Scoring rate
80.0%
20.0%
BTTS rate
80.0%
82
History Matches
62
1.51
Goals Mean
1.13
1.15
Goals Std
1.02
82.9%
Scored 1+ rate
67.7%
41.5%
Scored 2+ rate
32.3%
18.3%
Scored 3+ rate
11.3%
1.88
Venue Goals Mean
0.86
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.80
Goals against per game
1.27
58.5%
Conceding rate
72.6%
0.63
Goals against per game
1.72
50.0%
Conceding rate
86.2%
0.40
Goals against per game
1.80
40.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
82
History Matches
62
0.80
Conceded Mean
1.27
0.83
Conceded Std
1.09
18.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
38.7%
2.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
9.7%
0.63
Venue Conceded Mean
1.72
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
41.5%
Clean-sheet rate
27.4%
17.1%
Failed-to-score rate
32.3%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
13.8%
5.0%
Failed-to-score rate
44.8%
60.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
41.5%
Clean-sheet rate
27.4%
17.1%
Failed-to-score rate
32.3%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
13.8%
5.0%
Failed-to-score rate
44.8%
41.5%
Clean-sheet rate
27.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
82
History Matches
62
0.90
Result entropy
0.99
1.32
Goal Difference Std
1.44
9.61
Stability score
1.21
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
82
Eligible Matches
59
34
Lead Matches
16
82.4%
Lead Win Rate
68.8%
0.85
Lead Points Retention
0.77
12
Trailing Matches
14
33.3%
Non-loss rate
21.4%
16.7%
Trailing Win Rate
7.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
82
Halftime Coverage Matches
59
0.72
First Half Goals For Mean
0.49
0.38
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.46
0.79
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.68
0.43
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.78
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.88
Rest days
77.08
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
18
Short Rest History Matches
3
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.00
46
Normal Rest History Matches
34
1.98
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.35
17
Long Rest History Matches
24
1.71
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.38
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
2.40
PPG
1.20
80.0%
Win rate
40.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
20.0%
Loss rate
60.0%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
20.0%
Over 2.5 rate
80.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
60.0%
1.17
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.47
5
Current Competition Matches
5
2.40
Current Competition PPG
1.20
1.20
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.20
5
Competition Season Count
3
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.35
Portability PPG Std
0.20
0.90
Portability PPG Range
0.47
58.93
Portability Score
71.53
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
82
Clean History Matches
62
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO188.7
PPG0.54
GF0.38
GA-0.47
PPG1.20
PPG1.74
PPG1.20
PPG1.80
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches20
Clean-sheet rate14.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.15
History Matches11
Clean-sheet rate36.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.40
History Matches20
Goals Mean0.38
Goals Std0.13
Scored 1+ rate15.2%
Scored 2+ rate9.2%
Scored 3+ rate7.0%
Venue Goals Mean1.01
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.20
Recent 10 Goals Std0.24
History Matches20
Conceded Mean-0.47
Conceded Std-0.26
Clean-sheet rate14.0%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.20
Conceded 3+ rate-0.07
Venue Conceded Mean-1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.48
History Matches20
Result entropy-0.08
Goal Difference Std-0.11
Stability score8.40
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.15
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.02
Eligible Matches23
Lead Matches18
Lead Win Rate13.6%
Lead Points Retention0.08
Trailing Matches-2
Non-loss rate11.9%
Trailing Win Rate9.5%
Halftime Coverage Matches23
First Half Goals For Mean0.23
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.08
Second Half Goals For Mean0.11
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.35
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.20
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.40
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.15
Portability PPG Range0.43
Portability Score-12.60
Rest days-0.21
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches15
Short Rest Points Per Match0.00
Normal Rest History Matches12
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.63
Long Rest History Matches-7
Long Rest Points Per Match0.33
Current Team ELO188.7
Current Opponent ELO-188.7
Current ELO Difference377.5
Expected score0.50
History Matches20
Residual Mean0.11
Overperformance8.85
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.40

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Municipal

L
Deportivo San Pedro1–0Municipal1 Nov · away
Pick: Municipal 45% · missed
W
Municipal3–1Comunicaciones29 Oct · home
Pick: Municipal 64% · hit
L
Xelajú1–0Municipal24 Oct · away
Pick: Municipal 50% · missed
D
Mixco0–0Municipal21 Oct · away
Pick: Municipal 42% · missed
L
Cobán Imperial2–1Municipal15 Oct · away
Pick: Municipal 51% · missed

Aurora

L
Aurora0–2Antigua GFC1 Nov · home
Pick: Antigua GFC 54% · hit
W
Malacateco0–2Aurora29 Oct · away
Pick: Malacateco 45% · missed
D
Suchitepéquez2–2Aurora25 Oct · away
Pick: Aurora 37% · missed
W
Comunicaciones1–2Aurora14 Oct · away
Pick: Comunicaciones 43% · missed
L
Guastatoya2–1Aurora4 Oct · away
Pick: Guastatoya 49% · hit

About this match

Municipal and Aurora meet in Liga Nacional on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 23:00 UTC. The match is played at Estadio Manuel Felipe Carrera, Guatemala City. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Municipal win 65.7%, draw 22.4%, Aurora win 11.9%. The pick is Municipal win. Over 2.5 goals: 54.0%. Both teams to score: 47.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.