ScoreProb
1. Liga Classic - Group 2 Switzerland Group 2 - 13 2026

Muri-Gümligen vs Thun II

Muri-Gümligen Home · Elo 1,528
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Thun II Away · Elo 1,462
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Muri-Gümligen win
Muri-Gümligen winPick
56.7%
Draw
22.5%
Thun II win
20.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · the live score only: events are not provided for this competition by our data source
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes48.0%
No52.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.554.9%
Under 2.545.1%

How much we know

Muri-Gümligen history10 matches
Thun II history18 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (56.7%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Muri-Gümligen are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Muri-Gümligen are rated 66 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,528 against 1,462. On rating alone Muri-Gümligen would be expected to take 59% of the points on offer.

  • Thun II score more

    1.20 goals a game over 10 matches for Muri-Gümligen, against 1.56 over 18 for Thun II.

  • Muri-Gümligen concede fewer

    Muri-Gümligen concede 0.70 a game, Thun II 2.22.

  • Thun II games more often go over 2.5 goals

    30% of Muri-Gümligen matches, against 83% for Thun II. The model puts this match at 55% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Muri-Gümligen
Thun II
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1528.4
ELO
1462.3
10
ELO · Matches
18
1528.4
Current Team ELO
1462.3
1462.3
Current Opponent ELO
1528.4
66.08
Current ELO Difference
-66.08
0.59
Expected score
0.41
10
History Matches
18
0.11
Residual Mean
-0.12
53.51
Overperformance
44.08
0.11
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.08
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
1.40
1.00
Goals for per game
1.80
0.60
Goals against per game
2.00
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.70
PPG
0.90
1.20
Goals for per game
1.70
0.70
Goals against per game
2.50
50.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.70
1.17
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.90
0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.50
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.02
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.50
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.66
Overall performance9 signals
90
10
Matches
18
1.70
PPG
0.89
50.0%
Win rate
22.2%
20.0%
Draw rate
22.2%
30.0%
Loss rate
55.6%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
30.0%
Over 2.5 rate
83.3%
20.0%
Over 3.5 rate
61.1%
1.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.94
Venue performance10 signals
100
3
Matches
11
1.67
PPG
0.45
33.3%
Win rate
9.1%
66.7%
Draw rate
18.2%
0.0%
Loss rate
72.7%
33.3%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
72.7%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
45.5%
0.94
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.31
3
History Matches
11
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.20
Goals for per game
1.56
70.0%
Scoring rate
77.8%
30.0%
BTTS rate
72.2%
0.67
Goals for per game
1.18
33.3%
Scoring rate
72.7%
0.0%
BTTS rate
72.7%
0.67
Goals for per game
1.67
66.7%
Scoring rate
100.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
10
History Matches
18
1.20
Goals Mean
1.56
1.17
Goals Std
1.17
70.0%
Scored 1+ rate
77.8%
30.0%
Scored 2+ rate
50.0%
10.0%
Scored 3+ rate
22.2%
0.67
Venue Goals Mean
1.18
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.70
Goals against per game
2.22
40.0%
Conceding rate
94.4%
0.00
Goals against per game
2.27
0.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
0.00
Goals against per game
1.67
0.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
10
History Matches
18
0.70
Conceded Mean
2.22
1.00
Conceded Std
1.08
20.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
83.3%
10.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
27.8%
0.00
Venue Conceded Mean
2.27
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
60.0%
Clean-sheet rate
5.6%
30.0%
Failed-to-score rate
22.2%
100.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
66.7%
Failed-to-score rate
27.3%
100.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
60.0%
Clean-sheet rate
5.6%
30.0%
Failed-to-score rate
22.2%
100.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
66.7%
Failed-to-score rate
27.3%
60.0%
Clean-sheet rate
5.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
10
History Matches
18
0.94
Result entropy
0.91
1.50
Goal Difference Std
1.94
6.28
Stability score
9.43
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
7
Eligible Matches
16
1
Lead Matches
2
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
50.0%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
0.67
0
Trailing Matches
6
—
Non-loss rate
16.7%
—
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
7
Halftime Coverage Matches
16
0.14
First Half Goals For Mean
0.63
0.00
First Half Goals Against Mean
1.13
0.71
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.94
0.43
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.19
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
77.04
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
4
Normal Rest History Matches
12
2.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.92
5
Long Rest History Matches
5
1.80
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
2.33
PPG
1.33
66.7%
Win rate
33.3%
33.3%
Draw rate
33.3%
0.0%
Loss rate
33.3%
0.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
0.47
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.82
3
Current Competition Matches
3
2.33
Current Competition PPG
1.33
0.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
3
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.58
Portability PPG Std
0.27
1.17
Portability PPG Range
0.53
46.15
Portability Score
65.22
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
10
Clean History Matches
18
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreNon-loss rateTrailing Win RateShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO66.08
PPG0.81
GF-0.36
GA-1.52
PPG1.00
PPG1.21
PPG0.60
PPG0.80
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-8
Clean-sheet rate54.4%
Failed-to-score rate7.8%
History Matches-8
Clean-sheet rate100.0%
Failed-to-score rate39.4%
History Matches-8
Goals Mean-0.36
Goals Std0.00
Scored 1+ rate-0.08
Scored 2+ rate-0.20
Scored 3+ rate-0.12
Venue Goals Mean-0.52
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std0.27
History Matches-8
Conceded Mean-1.52
Conceded Std-0.08
Clean-sheet rate54.4%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.63
Conceded 3+ rate-0.18
Venue Conceded Mean-2.27
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.02
History Matches-8
Result entropy0.03
Goal Difference Std-0.44
Stability score-3.15
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.16
Eligible Matches-9
Lead Matches-1
Lead Win Rate50.0%
Lead Points Retention0.33
Trailing Matches-6
Halftime Coverage Matches-9
First Half Goals For Mean-0.48
First Half Goals Against Mean-1.13
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.22
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.76
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.67
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.32
Portability PPG Range0.63
Portability Score-19.06
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-8
Normal Rest Points Per Match1.08
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match0.80
Current Team ELO66.08
Current Opponent ELO-66.08
Current ELO Difference132.2
Expected score0.19
History Matches-8
Residual Mean0.23
Overperformance9.43
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.18

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Muri-Gümligen

D
Black Stars0–0Muri-Gümligen1 Nov · away
Pick: Black Stars 46% · missed
W
Muri-Gümligen1–0Münsingen24 Oct · home
Pick: Muri-Gümligen 51% · hit
W
FC Wohlen1–2Muri-Gümligen29 Aug · away
Pick: FC Wohlen 53% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Thun II

W
Thun II6–1Zug31 Oct · home
Pick: Thun II 47% · hit
L
Solothurn3–1Thun II24 Oct · away
Pick: Solothurn 58% · hit
W
Bassecourt0–2Thun II4 Oct · away
Pick: Bassecourt 40% · missed
L
Courtételle5–2Thun II29 Aug · away
Pick: Courtételle 69% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Muri-Gümligen and Thun II meet in 1. Liga Classic - Group 2 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Muri-Gümligen win 56.7%, draw 22.5%, Thun II win 20.8%. The pick is Muri-Gümligen win. Over 2.5 goals: 54.9%. Both teams to score: 48.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.