ScoreProb
Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 Spain Group 3 - 10 2026

Vimenor vs Castro

Vimenor Home · Elo 1,555
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Castro Away · Elo 1,455
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Vimenor win
Vimenor winPick
43.0%
Draw
29.9%
Castro win
27.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes52.1%
No47.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.552.8%
Under 2.547.2%

How much we know

Vimenor history50 matches
Castro history50 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

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Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 8 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 17:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (43.0%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Vimenor are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Vimenor are rated 101 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,555 against 1,455. On rating alone Vimenor would be expected to take 64% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.44 goals a game over 50 matches for Vimenor, against 1.30 over 50 for Castro.

  • Defences are close

    Vimenor concede 1.16 a game, Castro 1.28.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    48% of Vimenor matches, against 46% for Castro. The model puts this match at 53% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 9 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Vimenor
Castro
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1555.2
ELO
1454.5
50
ELO · Matches
50
1555.2
Current Team ELO
1454.5
1454.5
Current Opponent ELO
1555.2
100.6
Current ELO Difference
-100.6
0.64
Expected score
0.36
50
History Matches
50
0.05
Residual Mean
-0.05
53.86
Overperformance
46.68
-0.08
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.23
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
0.20
1.20
Goals for per game
0.60
2.00
Goals against per game
1.60
20.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
0.60
1.30
Goals for per game
0.90
1.40
Goals against per game
1.40
30.0%
Win rate
10.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.90
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.04
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
1.02
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.92
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.45
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.02
Overall performance9 signals
90
50
Matches
50
1.70
PPG
1.26
50.0%
Win rate
34.0%
20.0%
Draw rate
24.0%
30.0%
Loss rate
42.0%
72.0%
Over 1.5 rate
76.0%
48.0%
Over 2.5 rate
46.0%
30.0%
Over 3.5 rate
26.0%
1.78
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.98
Venue performance10 signals
100
25
Matches
25
2.16
PPG
0.72
68.0%
Win rate
16.0%
12.0%
Draw rate
24.0%
20.0%
Loss rate
60.0%
76.0%
Over 1.5 rate
76.0%
48.0%
Over 2.5 rate
40.0%
32.0%
Over 3.5 rate
20.0%
1.61
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.48
25
History Matches
25
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.44
Goals for per game
1.30
76.0%
Scoring rate
62.0%
46.0%
BTTS rate
48.0%
1.88
Goals for per game
0.80
88.0%
Scoring rate
52.0%
48.0%
BTTS rate
44.0%
50
History Matches
50
1.44
Goals Mean
1.30
1.20
Goals Std
1.60
76.0%
Scored 1+ rate
62.0%
44.0%
Scored 2+ rate
36.0%
14.0%
Scored 3+ rate
14.0%
1.88
Venue Goals Mean
0.80
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.16
Goals against per game
1.28
62.0%
Conceding rate
72.0%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.56
60.0%
Conceding rate
76.0%
50
History Matches
50
1.16
Conceded Mean
1.28
1.25
Conceded Std
1.02
30.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
44.0%
16.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
10.0%
1.00
Venue Conceded Mean
1.56
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
38.0%
Clean-sheet rate
28.0%
24.0%
Failed-to-score rate
38.0%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
24.0%
12.0%
Failed-to-score rate
48.0%
38.0%
Clean-sheet rate
28.0%
24.0%
Failed-to-score rate
38.0%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
24.0%
12.0%
Failed-to-score rate
48.0%
38.0%
Clean-sheet rate
28.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
50
History Matches
50
0.94
Result entropy
0.98
1.78
Goal Difference Std
1.98
6.28
Stability score
2.27
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
50
Eligible Matches
50
16
Lead Matches
13
81.3%
Lead Win Rate
69.2%
0.85
Lead Points Retention
0.74
11
Trailing Matches
14
18.2%
Non-loss rate
21.4%
9.1%
Trailing Win Rate
14.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
50
Halftime Coverage Matches
50
0.52
First Half Goals For Mean
0.46
0.54
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.40
0.92
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.84
0.62
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.88
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
183.0
Rest days
183.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
26
Normal Rest History Matches
25
1.92
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.92
23
Long Rest History Matches
24
1.48
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.54
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
3
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.04
Portability PPG Std
0.31
0.07
Portability PPG Range
0.61
93.45
Portability Score
62.03
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
50
Clean History Matches
50
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO100.6
PPG0.44
GF0.14
GA-0.12
PPG1.44
PPG0.60
PPG0.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate10.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.14
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate16.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.36
History Matches0
Goals Mean0.14
Goals Std-0.40
Scored 1+ rate14.0%
Scored 2+ rate8.0%
Scored 3+ rate0.0%
Venue Goals Mean1.08
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.14
History Matches0
Conceded Mean-0.12
Conceded Std0.23
Clean-sheet rate10.0%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.14
Conceded 3+ rate6.0%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.56
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.10
History Matches0
Result entropy-0.04
Goal Difference Std-0.21
Stability score4.01
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.17
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.42
Eligible Matches0
Lead Matches3
Lead Win Rate12.0%
Lead Points Retention0.11
Trailing Matches-3
Non-loss rate-0.03
Trailing Win Rate-0.05
Halftime Coverage Matches0
First Half Goals For Mean0.06
First Half Goals Against Mean0.14
Second Half Goals For Mean0.08
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.26
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.27
Portability PPG Range-0.54
Portability Score31.42
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest Points Per Match1.00
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.06
Current Team ELO100.6
Current Opponent ELO-100.6
Current ELO Difference201.3
Expected score0.28
History Matches0
Residual Mean0.10
Overperformance7.18
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.16

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Vimenor

D
Revilla1–1Vimenor30 Oct · away
Pick: Vimenor 45% · missed
W
Vimenor3–0Solares25 Oct · home
Pick: Vimenor 67% · hit
W
Selaya1–2Vimenor18 Oct · away
Pick: Vimenor 42% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Castro

L
Castro0–1Barquereño31 Oct · home
Pick: Castro 52% · missed
L
Naval Reinosa2–1Castro25 Oct · away
Pick: Naval Reinosa 35% · hit
W
Castro3–0Escobedo17 Oct · home
Pick: Castro 42% · hit
L
Castro0–2Tropezón4 Oct · home
Pick: Tropezón 46% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Vimenor and Castro meet in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 17:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Vimenor win 43.0%, draw 29.9%, Castro win 27.1%. The pick is Vimenor win. Over 2.5 goals: 52.8%. Both teams to score: 52.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.