ScoreProb
Gamma Ethniki - Group 5 Greece Group 5 - 7 2026

Nea Artaki vs A. Schimatari

Nea Artaki Home · Elo 1,596
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
A. Schimatari Away · Elo 1,491
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Nea Artaki win
Nea Artaki winPick
56.0%
Draw
27.0%
A. Schimatari win
17.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes45.8%
No54.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.541.2%
Under 2.558.8%

How much we know

Nea Artaki history37 matches
A. Schimatari history29 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (56.0%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Nea Artaki are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Nea Artaki are rated 105 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,596 against 1,491. On rating alone Nea Artaki would be expected to take 65% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.03 goals a game over 37 matches for Nea Artaki, against 1.14 over 29 for A. Schimatari.

  • Nea Artaki concede fewer

    Nea Artaki concede 0.51 a game, A. Schimatari 1.24.

  • A. Schimatari games more often go over 2.5 goals

    22% of Nea Artaki matches, against 48% for A. Schimatari. The model puts this match at 41% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 8 Apr 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Nea Artaki
A. Schimatari@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1595.6
ELO
1490.5
37
ELO · Matches
29
1595.6
Current Team ELO
1490.5
1490.5
Current Opponent ELO
1595.6
105.1
Current ELO Difference
-105.1
0.65
Expected score
0.35
37
History Matches
29
0.13
Residual Mean
-0.02
58.74
Overperformance
48.85
0.10
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.04
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
1.40
1.80
Goals for per game
2.00
1.00
Goals against per game
2.40
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
2.00
PPG
1.50
1.20
Goals for per game
1.30
0.50
Goals against per game
1.40
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
1.47
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.00
0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
0.67
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.28
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.19
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.14
Overall performance9 signals
90
37
Matches
29
1.89
PPG
1.34
51.4%
Win rate
37.9%
35.1%
Draw rate
20.7%
13.5%
Loss rate
41.4%
40.5%
Over 1.5 rate
62.1%
21.6%
Over 2.5 rate
48.3%
8.1%
Over 3.5 rate
27.6%
1.33
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.27
Venue performance10 signals
100
20
Matches
15
2.15
PPG
0.73
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
35.0%
Draw rate
13.3%
5.0%
Loss rate
66.7%
25.0%
Over 1.5 rate
53.3%
5.0%
Over 2.5 rate
40.0%
5.0%
Over 3.5 rate
13.3%
1.03
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.06
20
History Matches
15
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.03
Goals for per game
1.14
62.2%
Scoring rate
65.5%
24.3%
BTTS rate
48.3%
0.95
Goals for per game
0.67
70.0%
Scoring rate
46.7%
10.0%
BTTS rate
40.0%
37
History Matches
29
1.03
Goals Mean
1.14
1.13
Goals Std
0.97
62.2%
Scored 1+ rate
65.5%
24.3%
Scored 2+ rate
41.4%
8.1%
Scored 3+ rate
6.9%
0.95
Venue Goals Mean
0.67
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
0.51
Goals against per game
1.24
37.8%
Conceding rate
72.4%
0.15
Goals against per game
1.40
15.0%
Conceding rate
80.0%
37
History Matches
29
0.51
Conceded Mean
1.24
0.79
Conceded Std
1.04
8.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
37.9%
5.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
10.3%
0.15
Venue Conceded Mean
1.40
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
62.2%
Clean-sheet rate
27.6%
37.8%
Failed-to-score rate
34.5%
85.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
30.0%
Failed-to-score rate
53.3%
62.2%
Clean-sheet rate
27.6%
37.8%
Failed-to-score rate
34.5%
85.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
30.0%
Failed-to-score rate
53.3%
62.2%
Clean-sheet rate
27.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
37
History Matches
29
0.89
Result entropy
0.96
1.33
Goal Difference Std
1.27
10.78
Stability score
3.62
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
31
Eligible Matches
25
11
Lead Matches
5
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
80.0%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
0.80
5
Trailing Matches
9
40.0%
Non-loss rate
55.6%
20.0%
Trailing Win Rate
33.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
31
Halftime Coverage Matches
25
0.45
First Half Goals For Mean
0.36
0.23
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.56
0.68
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.76
0.35
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.60
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
214.0
Rest days
214.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
2
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
25
Normal Rest History Matches
19
1.88
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.37
10
Long Rest History Matches
7
2.30
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.86
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
1
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
0.04
Portability PPG Std
—
0.09
Portability PPG Range
—
92.02
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
37
Clean History Matches
29
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
ELO105.1
PPG0.55
GF-0.11
GA-0.73
PPG1.42
PPG0.40
PPG0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches8
Clean-sheet rate34.6%
Failed-to-score rate3.4%
History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate65.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.23
History Matches8
Goals Mean-0.11
Goals Std0.15
Scored 1+ rate-0.03
Scored 2+ rate-0.17
Scored 3+ rate1.2%
Venue Goals Mean0.28
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.46
History Matches8
Conceded Mean-0.73
Conceded Std-0.25
Clean-sheet rate34.6%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.30
Conceded 3+ rate-0.05
Venue Conceded Mean-1.25
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.61
History Matches8
Result entropy-0.07
Goal Difference Std0.06
Stability score7.15
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.05
Eligible Matches6
Lead Matches6
Lead Win Rate20.0%
Lead Points Retention0.20
Trailing Matches-4
Non-loss rate-0.16
Trailing Win Rate-0.13
Halftime Coverage Matches6
First Half Goals For Mean0.09
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.33
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.08
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.25
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match0.00
Normal Rest History Matches6
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.51
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match0.44
Current Team ELO105.1
Current Opponent ELO-105.1
Current ELO Difference210.2
Expected score0.29
History Matches8
Residual Mean0.15
Overperformance9.88
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.06

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Nea Artaki

D
Lamia0–0Nea Artaki1 Nov · away
Pick: Lamia 44% · missed
W
Nea Artaki1–0Tamynaikos Aliveriou25 Oct · home
Pick: Nea Artaki 63% · hit
L
Karystos2–0Nea Artaki4 Oct · away
Pick: Draw 41% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

A. Schimatari

D
A. Schimatari1–1Fokikos1 Nov · home
Pick: A. Schimatari 57% · missed
L
A. Schimatari1–2Lamia25 Oct · home
Pick: Lamia 40% · hit
W
Tamynaikos Aliveriou0–2A. Schimatari18 Oct · away
Pick: Tamynaikos Aliveriou 36% · missed
D
Katsantonis Agrafon0–0A. Schimatari4 Oct · away
Pick: Katsantonis Agrafon 36% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Nea Artaki and A. Schimatari meet in Gamma Ethniki - Group 5 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Nea Artaki win 56.0%, draw 27.0%, A. Schimatari win 17.0%. The pick is Nea Artaki win. Over 2.5 goals: 41.2%. Both teams to score: 45.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.