ScoreProb
Gamma Ethniki - Group 5 Greece Group 5 - 7 2026

Asteras Stavros vs Lamia

Asteras Stavros Home · Elo 1,493
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Lamia Away · Elo 1,516
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Lamia win
Asteras Stavros win
32.2%
Draw
26.9%
Lamia winPick
40.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes47.0%
No53.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.543.6%
Under 2.556.4%

How much we know

Asteras Stavros history25 matches
Lamia history45 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (40.9%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Lamia are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,493 against 1,516. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.12 goals a game over 25 matches for Asteras Stavros, against 1.04 over 45 for Lamia.

  • Defences are close

    Asteras Stavros concede 1.20 a game, Lamia 1.20.

  • Asteras Stavros games more often go over 2.5 goals

    44% of Asteras Stavros matches, against 33% for Lamia. The model puts this match at 44% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 8 Apr 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Asteras Stavros
Lamia@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1492.8
ELO
1516.1
25
ELO · Matches
45
1492.8
Current Team ELO
1516.1
1516.1
Current Opponent ELO
1492.8
-23.37
Current ELO Difference
23.37
0.47
Expected score
0.53
25
History Matches
45
-0.01
Residual Mean
0.02
49.33
Overperformance
51.20
-0.22
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.19
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.40
PPG
1.80
0.60
Goals for per game
0.60
1.80
Goals against per game
0.20
0.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
0.70
PPG
1.60
0.70
Goals for per game
1.10
1.40
Goals against per game
0.40
10.0%
Win rate
30.0%
0.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.10
0.64
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.37
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.40
0.92
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.49
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.56
1.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.49
Overall performance9 signals
90
25
Matches
45
1.40
PPG
1.24
36.0%
Win rate
28.9%
32.0%
Draw rate
37.8%
32.0%
Loss rate
33.3%
72.0%
Over 1.5 rate
64.4%
44.0%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
16.0%
Over 3.5 rate
22.2%
1.38
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.93
Venue performance10 signals
100
13
Matches
23
1.69
PPG
1.04
46.2%
Win rate
21.7%
30.8%
Draw rate
39.1%
23.1%
Loss rate
39.1%
76.9%
Over 1.5 rate
52.2%
46.2%
Over 2.5 rate
26.1%
23.1%
Over 3.5 rate
13.0%
1.38
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.91
13
History Matches
23
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.12
Goals for per game
1.04
64.0%
Scoring rate
55.6%
44.0%
BTTS rate
35.6%
1.38
Goals for per game
0.74
76.9%
Scoring rate
43.5%
46.2%
BTTS rate
26.1%
25
History Matches
45
1.12
Goals Mean
1.04
1.03
Goals Std
1.28
64.0%
Scored 1+ rate
55.6%
36.0%
Scored 2+ rate
28.9%
12.0%
Scored 3+ rate
8.9%
1.38
Venue Goals Mean
0.74
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.20
Goals against per game
1.20
68.0%
Conceding rate
60.0%
1.08
Goals against per game
1.35
61.5%
Conceding rate
60.9%
25
History Matches
45
1.20
Conceded Mean
1.20
0.98
Conceded Std
1.44
44.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
28.9%
8.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
20.0%
1.08
Venue Conceded Mean
1.35
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
32.0%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
36.0%
Failed-to-score rate
44.4%
38.5%
Clean-sheet rate
39.1%
23.1%
Failed-to-score rate
56.5%
32.0%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
36.0%
Failed-to-score rate
44.4%
38.5%
Clean-sheet rate
39.1%
23.1%
Failed-to-score rate
56.5%
32.0%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
25
History Matches
45
1.00
Result entropy
0.99
1.38
Goal Difference Std
1.93
0.14
Stability score
0.54
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
21
Eligible Matches
43
6
Lead Matches
12
50.0%
Lead Win Rate
75.0%
0.61
Lead Points Retention
0.83
5
Trailing Matches
14
20.0%
Non-loss rate
21.4%
20.0%
Trailing Win Rate
7.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
21
Halftime Coverage Matches
43
0.52
First Half Goals For Mean
0.44
0.43
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.58
0.52
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.56
0.76
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.67
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
214.0
Rest days
214.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
2
0.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
15
Normal Rest History Matches
31
1.67
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.19
7
Long Rest History Matches
11
0.86
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.18
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
1
Competition Season Count
2
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
—
Portability PPG Std
0.48
—
Portability PPG Range
0.96
—
Portability Score
51.02
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
25
Clean History Matches
45
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
ELO-23.37
PPG0.16
GF0.08
GA0.00
PPG0.65
PPG-1.40
PPG-0.90
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-20
Clean-sheet rate-0.08
Failed-to-score rate-0.08
History Matches-10
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Failed-to-score rate-0.33
History Matches-20
Goals Mean0.08
Goals Std-0.25
Scored 1+ rate8.4%
Scored 2+ rate7.1%
Scored 3+ rate3.1%
Venue Goals Mean0.65
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.73
History Matches-20
Conceded Mean0.00
Conceded Std-0.46
Clean-sheet rate-0.08
Conceded 2+ rate15.1%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.12
Venue Conceded Mean-0.27
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.43
History Matches-20
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std-0.55
Stability score-0.40
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.30
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.39
Eligible Matches-22
Lead Matches-6
Lead Win Rate-0.25
Lead Points Retention-0.22
Trailing Matches-9
Non-loss rate-0.01
Trailing Win Rate12.9%
Halftime Coverage Matches-22
First Half Goals For Mean0.08
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.15
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.03
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.09
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match-2.50
Normal Rest History Matches-16
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.47
Long Rest History Matches-4
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.32
Current Team ELO-23.37
Current Opponent ELO23.37
Current ELO Difference-46.74
Expected score-0.07
History Matches-20
Residual Mean-0.03
Overperformance-1.88
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.41

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Asteras Stavros

W
Tamynaikos Aliveriou1–3Asteras Stavros1 Nov · away
Pick: Tamynaikos Aliveriou 35% · missed
W
Katsantonis Agrafon1–2Asteras Stavros18 Oct · away
Pick: Katsantonis Agrafon 35% · missed
L
Asteras Stavros0–1Diagoras Agias4 Oct · home
Pick: Asteras Stavros 57% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Lamia

D
Lamia0–0Nea Artaki1 Nov · home
Pick: Lamia 44% · missed
W
A. Schimatari1–2Lamia25 Oct · away
Pick: Lamia 40% · hit
W
Lamia4–1Fokikos18 Oct · home
Pick: Lamia 62% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Asteras Stavros and Lamia meet in Gamma Ethniki - Group 5 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Asteras Stavros win 32.2%, draw 26.9%, Lamia win 40.9%. The pick is Lamia win. Over 2.5 goals: 43.6%. Both teams to score: 47.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.