ScoreProb
Liga MX Mexico Round 16 2026

Necaxa vs Club Tijuana

Necaxa Home · Elo 1,499
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Club Tijuana Away · Elo 1,523
Estadio Victoria, Aguascalientes Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Club Tijuana win
Necaxa win
33.9%
Draw
24.4%
Club Tijuana winPick
41.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes59.1%
No40.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.558.5%
Under 2.541.5%

How much we know

Necaxa history59 matches
Club Tijuana history62 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 16 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 01:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (41.6%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Club Tijuana are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,499 against 1,523. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.49 goals a game over 59 matches for Necaxa, against 1.48 over 62 for Club Tijuana.

  • Defences are close

    Necaxa concede 1.61 a game, Club Tijuana 1.60.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    61% of Necaxa matches, against 63% for Club Tijuana. The model puts this match at 58% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Necaxa
Club Tijuana
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1499.4
ELO
1522.6
59
ELO · Matches
62
1499.4
Current Team ELO
1522.6
1522.6
Current Opponent ELO
1499.4
-23.24
Current ELO Difference
23.24
0.47
Expected score
0.53
59
History Matches
62
0.00
Residual Mean
0.01
49.85
Overperformance
50.79
0.03
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.01
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
0.60
1.00
Goals for per game
1.00
1.80
Goals against per game
2.40
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
1.40
1.60
Goals for per game
1.10
1.70
Goals against per game
1.40
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.10
1.62
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.04
1.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.50
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.58
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.55
Overall performance9 signals
90
59
Matches
62
1.34
PPG
1.31
37.3%
Win rate
35.5%
22.0%
Draw rate
24.2%
40.7%
Loss rate
40.3%
79.7%
Over 1.5 rate
82.3%
61.0%
Over 2.5 rate
62.9%
35.6%
Over 3.5 rate
33.9%
1.72
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.85
Venue performance10 signals
100
29
Matches
34
1.55
PPG
0.88
44.8%
Win rate
23.5%
20.7%
Draw rate
17.6%
34.5%
Loss rate
58.8%
72.4%
Over 1.5 rate
85.3%
51.7%
Over 2.5 rate
67.6%
24.1%
Over 3.5 rate
35.3%
1.57
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.79
29
History Matches
34
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.49
Goals for per game
1.48
74.6%
Scoring rate
79.0%
64.4%
BTTS rate
61.3%
1.45
Goals for per game
1.18
72.4%
Scoring rate
70.6%
58.6%
BTTS rate
61.8%
1.40
Goals for per game
1.60
100.0%
Scoring rate
80.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
60.0%
59
History Matches
62
1.49
Goals Mean
1.48
1.33
Goals Std
1.12
74.6%
Scored 1+ rate
79.0%
40.7%
Scored 2+ rate
46.8%
22.0%
Scored 3+ rate
17.7%
1.45
Venue Goals Mean
1.18
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.61
Goals against per game
1.60
83.1%
Conceding rate
74.2%
1.21
Goals against per game
2.06
79.3%
Conceding rate
85.3%
1.60
Goals against per game
1.40
100.0%
Conceding rate
60.0%
59
History Matches
62
1.61
Conceded Mean
1.60
1.28
Conceded Std
1.44
42.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
43.5%
23.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
22.6%
1.21
Venue Conceded Mean
2.06
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
16.9%
Clean-sheet rate
25.8%
25.4%
Failed-to-score rate
21.0%
20.7%
Clean-sheet rate
14.7%
27.6%
Failed-to-score rate
29.4%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
16.9%
Clean-sheet rate
25.8%
25.4%
Failed-to-score rate
21.0%
20.7%
Clean-sheet rate
14.7%
27.6%
Failed-to-score rate
29.4%
16.9%
Clean-sheet rate
25.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
59
History Matches
62
0.97
Result entropy
0.98
1.72
Goal Difference Std
1.85
2.88
Stability score
1.95
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
57
Eligible Matches
62
14
Lead Matches
20
78.6%
Lead Win Rate
70.0%
0.81
Lead Points Retention
0.77
21
Trailing Matches
15
19.0%
Non-loss rate
6.7%
4.8%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
57
Halftime Coverage Matches
62
0.60
First Half Goals For Mean
0.69
0.75
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.65
0.82
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.79
0.86
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.95
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
75.00
Rest days
76.08
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
6
Short Rest History Matches
5
1.17
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
27
Normal Rest History Matches
38
1.33
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.21
25
Long Rest History Matches
18
1.44
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.67
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
2.00
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
20.0%
Draw rate
20.0%
40.0%
Loss rate
20.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
60.0%
80.0%
Over 2.5 rate
60.0%
20.0%
Over 3.5 rate
40.0%
1.17
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.72
5
Current Competition Matches
5
1.40
Current Competition PPG
2.00
-0.20
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.20
5
Competition Season Count
7
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.48
Portability PPG Std
0.66
1.33
Portability PPG Range
2.00
50.99
Portability Score
42.99
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
59
Clean History Matches
62
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-23.24
PPG0.03
GF0.01
GA0.01
PPG-0.60
PPG0.67
PPG0.20
PPG0.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate-0.09
Failed-to-score rate4.5%
History Matches-5
Clean-sheet rate6.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.02
History Matches-3
Goals Mean0.01
Goals Std0.21
Scored 1+ rate-0.04
Scored 2+ rate-0.06
Scored 3+ rate4.3%
Venue Goals Mean0.27
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std0.58
History Matches-3
Conceded Mean0.01
Conceded Std-0.17
Clean-sheet rate-0.09
Conceded 2+ rate-0.01
Conceded 3+ rate1.1%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.85
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.49
History Matches-3
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.13
Stability score0.93
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.03
Eligible Matches-5
Lead Matches-6
Lead Win Rate8.6%
Lead Points Retention0.04
Trailing Matches6
Non-loss rate12.4%
Trailing Win Rate4.8%
Halftime Coverage Matches-5
First Half Goals For Mean-0.10
First Half Goals Against Mean0.11
Second Half Goals For Mean0.03
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.09
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.60
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.40
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.18
Portability PPG Range-0.67
Portability Score8.00
Rest days-1.08
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match0.17
Normal Rest History Matches-11
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.12
Long Rest History Matches7
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.23
Current Team ELO-23.24
Current Opponent ELO23.24
Current ELO Difference-46.47
Expected score-0.07
History Matches-3
Residual Mean-0.01
Overperformance-0.94
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.02

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Necaxa

L
Santos Laguna1–0Necaxa1 Nov · away
Pick: Necaxa 45% · missed
D
Necaxa1–1FC Juarez24 Oct · home
Pick: Necaxa 54% · missed
L
Guadalajara Chivas1–0Necaxa21 Oct · away
Pick: Guadalajara Chivas 56% · hit
L
Necaxa0–2Atlas17 Oct · home
Pick: Necaxa 41% · missed
L
Necaxa1–3Cruz Azul29 Aug · home
Pick: Cruz Azul 43% · hit

Club Tijuana

D
Club America1–1Club Tijuana29 Oct · away
Pick: Club America 53% · missed
W
Club Tijuana4–1Santos Laguna26 Oct · home
Pick: Club Tijuana 69% · hit
D
Toluca2–2Club Tijuana22 Oct · away
Pick: Toluca 57% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Necaxa and Club Tijuana meet in Liga MX on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 01:00 UTC. The match is played at Estadio Victoria, Aguascalientes. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Necaxa win 33.9%, draw 24.4%, Club Tijuana win 41.6%. The pick is Club Tijuana win. Over 2.5 goals: 58.5%. Both teams to score: 59.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.