ScoreProb
Liga MX Mexico Round 16 2026

U.N.A.M. - Pumas vs Club America

U.N.A.M. - Pumas Home · Elo 1,547
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Club America Away · Elo 1,588
Estadio Olímpico Universitario, Mexico City Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Club America win
U.N.A.M. - Pumas win
25.3%
Draw
25.3%
Club America winPick
49.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes52.5%
No47.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.552.5%
Under 2.547.5%

How much we know

U.N.A.M. - Pumas history72 matches
Club America history78 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 18 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 03:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (49.4%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Club America are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Club America are rated 42 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,588 against 1,547. On rating alone Club America would be expected to take 56% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.49 goals a game over 72 matches for U.N.A.M. - Pumas, against 1.50 over 78 for Club America.

  • Club America concede fewer

    U.N.A.M. - Pumas concede 1.40 a game, Club America 0.99.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    50% of U.N.A.M. - Pumas matches, against 47% for Club America. The model puts this match at 52% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
Club America
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1546.7
ELO
1588.3
72
ELO · Matches
78
1546.7
Current Team ELO
1588.3
1588.3
Current Opponent ELO
1546.7
-41.51
Current ELO Difference
41.51
0.44
Expected score
0.56
72
History Matches
78
0.03
Residual Mean
0.05
52.40
Overperformance
54.36
-0.08
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.20
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
2.60
0.40
Goals for per game
2.40
1.40
Goals against per game
0.80
0.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
2.30
1.20
Goals for per game
1.90
1.30
Goals against per game
0.60
30.0%
Win rate
70.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.90
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.04
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.60
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.49
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
2.21
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.27
Overall performance9 signals
90
72
Matches
78
1.39
PPG
1.62
36.1%
Win rate
43.6%
30.6%
Draw rate
30.8%
33.3%
Loss rate
25.6%
81.9%
Over 1.5 rate
73.1%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
47.4%
34.7%
Over 3.5 rate
25.6%
1.63
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.53
Venue performance10 signals
100
35
Matches
39
1.46
PPG
1.41
37.1%
Win rate
35.9%
34.3%
Draw rate
33.3%
28.6%
Loss rate
30.8%
74.3%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
40.0%
Over 2.5 rate
43.6%
31.4%
Over 3.5 rate
25.6%
1.47
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.35
35
History Matches
39
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.49
Goals for per game
1.50
81.9%
Scoring rate
73.1%
62.5%
BTTS rate
50.0%
1.46
Goals for per game
1.31
80.0%
Scoring rate
64.1%
54.3%
BTTS rate
51.3%
1.60
Goals for per game
2.00
60.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
60.0%
BTTS rate
40.0%
72
History Matches
78
1.49
Goals Mean
1.50
1.15
Goals Std
1.23
81.9%
Scored 1+ rate
73.1%
40.3%
Scored 2+ rate
47.4%
18.1%
Scored 3+ rate
23.1%
1.46
Venue Goals Mean
1.31
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.40
Goals against per game
0.99
76.4%
Conceding rate
65.4%
1.17
Goals against per game
1.08
68.6%
Conceding rate
74.4%
1.20
Goals against per game
0.40
80.0%
Conceding rate
40.0%
72
History Matches
78
1.40
Conceded Mean
0.99
1.11
Conceded Std
0.93
41.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
25.6%
18.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
6.4%
1.17
Venue Conceded Mean
1.08
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
23.6%
Clean-sheet rate
34.6%
18.1%
Failed-to-score rate
26.9%
31.4%
Clean-sheet rate
25.6%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
35.9%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
60.0%
40.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
23.6%
Clean-sheet rate
34.6%
18.1%
Failed-to-score rate
26.9%
31.4%
Clean-sheet rate
25.6%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
35.9%
23.6%
Clean-sheet rate
34.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
72
History Matches
78
1.00
Result entropy
0.98
1.63
Goal Difference Std
1.53
0.21
Stability score
2.28
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
72
Eligible Matches
78
21
Lead Matches
23
61.9%
Lead Win Rate
87.0%
0.68
Lead Points Retention
0.91
23
Trailing Matches
16
43.5%
Non-loss rate
43.8%
26.1%
Trailing Win Rate
6.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
72
Halftime Coverage Matches
78
0.67
First Half Goals For Mean
0.65
0.68
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.49
0.82
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.85
0.72
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.50
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.08
Rest days
77.99
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
12
Short Rest History Matches
13
1.58
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.08
37
Normal Rest History Matches
42
1.30
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.50
22
Long Rest History Matches
22
1.45
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.50
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
2.60
40.0%
Win rate
80.0%
40.0%
Draw rate
20.0%
20.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
60.0%
Over 2.5 rate
60.0%
20.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
2.24
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.20
5
Current Competition Matches
5
1.60
Current Competition PPG
2.60
0.40
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.60
8
Competition Season Count
10
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
7
0.47
Portability PPG Std
0.59
1.27
Portability PPG Range
1.60
51.75
Portability Score
45.96
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
72
Clean History Matches
78
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-41.51
PPG-0.23
GF-0.01
GA0.42
PPG-1.00
PPG0.05
PPG-2.00
PPG-1.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-6
Clean-sheet rate-0.11
Failed-to-score rate-0.09
History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate5.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.16
History Matches-6
Goals Mean-0.01
Goals Std-0.07
Scored 1+ rate8.9%
Scored 2+ rate-0.07
Scored 3+ rate-0.05
Venue Goals Mean0.15
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std0.56
History Matches-6
Conceded Mean0.42
Conceded Std0.19
Clean-sheet rate-0.11
Conceded 2+ rate16.0%
Conceded 3+ rate11.6%
Venue Conceded Mean0.09
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.52
History Matches-6
Result entropy0.02
Goal Difference Std0.11
Stability score-2.07
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.26
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.94
Eligible Matches-6
Lead Matches-2
Lead Win Rate-0.25
Lead Points Retention-0.23
Trailing Matches7
Non-loss rate0.00
Trailing Win Rate19.8%
Halftime Coverage Matches-6
First Half Goals For Mean0.01
First Half Goals Against Mean0.19
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.03
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.22
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.20
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Portability PPG Std-0.12
Portability PPG Range-0.33
Portability Score5.79
Rest days-1.91
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.49
Normal Rest History Matches-5
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.20
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.05
Current Team ELO-41.51
Current Opponent ELO41.51
Current ELO Difference-83.02
Expected score-0.12
History Matches-6
Residual Mean-0.02
Overperformance-1.96
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.28

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

W
Puebla1–2U.N.A.M. - Pumas31 Oct · away
Pick: U.N.A.M. - Pumas 39% · hit
W
Atlante FC1–2U.N.A.M. - Pumas17 Oct · away
Pick: U.N.A.M. - Pumas 47% · hit
D
U.N.A.M. - Pumas3–3Cruz Azul12 Oct · home
Pick: U.N.A.M. - Pumas 45% · missed
D
U.N.A.M. - Pumas1–1Necaxa24 Aug · home
Pick: U.N.A.M. - Pumas 55% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Club America

D
Club America1–1Club Tijuana29 Oct · home
Pick: Club America 53% · missed
L
Club America1–2CF Pachuca26 Oct · home
Pick: Club America 62% · missed
W
Atlas2–5Club America22 Oct · away
Pick: Club America 49% · hit
W
Leon3–5Club America18 Oct · away
Pick: Club America 47% · hit
W
Club America2–0Puebla30 Aug · home
Pick: Club America 61% · hit

About this match

U.N.A.M. - Pumas and Club America meet in Liga MX on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 03:00 UTC. The match is played at Estadio Olímpico Universitario, Mexico City. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: U.N.A.M. - Pumas win 25.3%, draw 25.3%, Club America win 49.4%. The pick is Club America win. Over 2.5 goals: 52.5%. Both teams to score: 52.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.