ScoreProb
Liga MX Mexico Round 16 2026

Atlas vs CF Pachuca

Atlas Home · Elo 1,487
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
CF Pachuca Away · Elo 1,541
Estadio Jalisco, Guadalajara Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Atlas win
Atlas winPick
45.7%
Draw
21.8%
CF Pachuca win
32.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes55.1%
No44.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.558.0%
Under 2.542.0%

How much we know

Atlas history53 matches
CF Pachuca history59 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 14 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 23:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (45.7%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Atlas are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • CF Pachuca are rated 55 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,541 against 1,487. On rating alone CF Pachuca would be expected to take 58% of the points on offer.

  • CF Pachuca score more

    1.28 goals a game over 53 matches for Atlas, against 1.46 over 59 for CF Pachuca.

  • CF Pachuca concede fewer

    Atlas concede 1.66 a game, CF Pachuca 1.29.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    55% of Atlas matches, against 59% for CF Pachuca. The model puts this match at 58% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Atlas
CF Pachuca
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1486.5
ELO
1541.0
53
ELO · Matches
59
1486.5
Current Team ELO
1541.0
1541.0
Current Opponent ELO
1486.5
-54.50
Current ELO Difference
54.50
0.42
Expected score
0.58
53
History Matches
59
-0.01
Residual Mean
0.02
49.58
Overperformance
51.26
0.13
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.25
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
0.80
1.40
Goals for per game
1.20
1.40
Goals against per game
1.80
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.60
PPG
1.00
1.40
Goals for per game
1.30
1.50
Goals against per game
1.40
50.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
1.11
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.00
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
1.28
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.02
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.45
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.51
Overall performance9 signals
90
53
Matches
59
1.21
PPG
1.54
32.1%
Win rate
45.8%
24.5%
Draw rate
16.9%
43.4%
Loss rate
37.3%
75.5%
Over 1.5 rate
78.0%
54.7%
Over 2.5 rate
59.3%
39.6%
Over 3.5 rate
25.4%
1.43
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.40
Venue performance10 signals
100
28
Matches
35
1.18
PPG
1.34
28.6%
Win rate
40.0%
32.1%
Draw rate
14.3%
39.3%
Loss rate
45.7%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
64.3%
Over 2.5 rate
60.0%
46.4%
Over 3.5 rate
25.7%
1.44
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.44
28
History Matches
35
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.28
Goals for per game
1.46
69.8%
Scoring rate
78.0%
56.6%
BTTS rate
62.7%
1.43
Goals for per game
1.37
71.4%
Scoring rate
80.0%
60.7%
BTTS rate
62.9%
1.60
Goals for per game
1.40
80.0%
Scoring rate
80.0%
40.0%
BTTS rate
60.0%
53
History Matches
59
1.28
Goals Mean
1.46
1.11
Goals Std
1.17
69.8%
Scored 1+ rate
78.0%
39.6%
Scored 2+ rate
42.4%
17.0%
Scored 3+ rate
18.6%
1.43
Venue Goals Mean
1.37
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.66
Goals against per game
1.29
75.5%
Conceding rate
78.0%
1.71
Goals against per game
1.46
75.0%
Conceding rate
82.9%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.40
60.0%
Conceding rate
80.0%
53
History Matches
59
1.66
Conceded Mean
1.29
1.26
Conceded Std
0.90
54.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
42.4%
28.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
8.5%
1.71
Venue Conceded Mean
1.46
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
24.5%
Clean-sheet rate
22.0%
30.2%
Failed-to-score rate
22.0%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
17.1%
28.6%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
24.5%
Clean-sheet rate
22.0%
30.2%
Failed-to-score rate
22.0%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
17.1%
28.6%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
24.5%
Clean-sheet rate
22.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
53
History Matches
59
0.98
Result entropy
0.93
1.43
Goal Difference Std
1.40
2.45
Stability score
6.57
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
51
Eligible Matches
58
12
Lead Matches
20
58.3%
Lead Win Rate
85.0%
0.67
Lead Points Retention
0.88
16
Trailing Matches
20
31.3%
Non-loss rate
20.0%
25.0%
Trailing Win Rate
15.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
51
Halftime Coverage Matches
58
0.61
First Half Goals For Mean
0.71
0.78
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.69
0.67
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.72
0.84
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.60
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.83
Rest days
76.00
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
7
Short Rest History Matches
8
0.29
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.25
21
Normal Rest History Matches
26
1.38
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.42
24
Long Rest History Matches
24
1.33
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.04
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
2.40
PPG
0.80
80.0%
Win rate
20.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
20.0%
20.0%
Loss rate
60.0%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
40.0%
Over 2.5 rate
60.0%
20.0%
Over 3.5 rate
20.0%
1.36
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.55
5
Current Competition Matches
5
2.40
Current Competition PPG
0.80
0.60
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
5
Competition Season Count
8
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.65
Portability PPG Std
0.40
2.00
Portability PPG Range
0.98
43.37
Portability Score
55.41
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
53
Clean History Matches
59
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-54.50
PPG-0.33
GF-0.17
GA0.37
PPG1.60
PPG-0.16
PPG1.00
PPG0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-6
Clean-sheet rate2.5%
Failed-to-score rate8.2%
History Matches-7
Clean-sheet rate7.9%
Failed-to-score rate8.6%
History Matches-6
Goals Mean-0.17
Goals Std-0.06
Scored 1+ rate-0.08
Scored 2+ rate-0.03
Scored 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Goals Mean0.06
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.11
History Matches-6
Conceded Mean0.37
Conceded Std0.36
Clean-sheet rate2.5%
Conceded 2+ rate12.3%
Conceded 3+ rate19.8%
Venue Conceded Mean0.26
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.26
History Matches-6
Result entropy0.04
Goal Difference Std0.03
Stability score-4.12
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.04
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.07
Eligible Matches-7
Lead Matches-8
Lead Win Rate-0.27
Lead Points Retention-0.22
Trailing Matches-4
Non-loss rate11.3%
Trailing Win Rate10.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-7
First Half Goals For Mean-0.10
First Half Goals Against Mean0.09
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.06
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.24
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.60
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.60
Competition Season Count-3
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.25
Portability PPG Range1.02
Portability Score-12.05
Rest days0.83
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match0.04
Normal Rest History Matches-5
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.04
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.71
Current Team ELO-54.50
Current Opponent ELO54.50
Current ELO Difference-109.0
Expected score-0.16
History Matches-6
Residual Mean-0.02
Overperformance-1.69
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.38

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Atlas

W
Atletico San Luis0–1Atlas31 Oct · away
Pick: Atlas 44% · hit
W
Atlas4–3Puebla25 Oct · home
Pick: Atlas 48% · hit
L
Atlas2–5Club America22 Oct · home
Pick: Club America 49% · hit
W
Necaxa0–2Atlas17 Oct · away
Pick: Necaxa 41% · missed
L
Atlas1–3Club Queretaro29 Aug · home
Pick: Atlas 52% · missed

CF Pachuca

W
CF Pachuca3–0Tigres UANL31 Oct · home
Pick: CF Pachuca 41% · hit
W
Club America1–2CF Pachuca26 Oct · away
Pick: Club America 62% · missed
L
Monterrey2–1CF Pachuca19 Oct · away
Pick: Monterrey 58% · hit
D
CF Pachuca1–1Guadalajara Chivas29 Aug · home
Pick: CF Pachuca 38% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Atlas and CF Pachuca meet in Liga MX on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 23:00 UTC. The match is played at Estadio Jalisco, Guadalajara. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Atlas win 45.7%, draw 21.8%, CF Pachuca win 32.5%. The pick is Atlas win. Over 2.5 goals: 58.0%. Both teams to score: 55.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.