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Super League Uzbekistan Round 26 2026

Neftchi vs Bunyodkor

Neftchi Home · Elo 1,650
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Bunyodkor Away · Elo 1,483
Istiqlol Stadium, Fergana Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Neftchi win
Neftchi winPick
71.8%
Draw
17.1%
Bunyodkor win
11.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes50.5%
No49.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.557.2%
Under 2.542.8%

How much we know

Neftchi history60 matches
Bunyodkor history56 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 70–79% band (71.8%). Picks in that band won 76.5% of the time, and the model said 73.9% on average, over 646 matches.

Why Neftchi are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Neftchi are rated 167 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,650 against 1,483. On rating alone Neftchi would be expected to take 72% of the points on offer.

  • Neftchi score more

    1.82 goals a game over 60 matches for Neftchi, against 1.41 over 56 for Bunyodkor.

  • Neftchi concede fewer

    Neftchi concede 0.85 a game, Bunyodkor 1.46.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    57% of Neftchi matches, against 54% for Bunyodkor. The model puts this match at 57% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Neftchi
Bunyodkor@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1649.7
ELO
1483.0
60
ELO · Matches
56
1649.7
Current Team ELO
1483.0
1483.0
Current Opponent ELO
1649.7
166.7
Current ELO Difference
-166.7
0.72
Expected score
0.28
60
History Matches
56
0.12
Residual Mean
-0.02
59.13
Overperformance
48.79
-0.03
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.31
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
0.00
2.40
Goals for per game
1.20
0.80
Goals against per game
2.40
60.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.80
PPG
0.60
2.10
Goals for per game
1.20
1.10
Goals against per game
2.00
50.0%
Win rate
20.0%
2.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
1.76
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.17
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.00
1.51
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.10
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.46
2.61
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
0.98
Overall performance9 signals
90
60
Matches
56
2.12
PPG
1.43
65.0%
Win rate
39.3%
16.7%
Draw rate
25.0%
18.3%
Loss rate
35.7%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
76.8%
56.7%
Over 2.5 rate
53.6%
26.7%
Over 3.5 rate
33.9%
1.97
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.49
Venue performance10 signals
100
30
Matches
28
2.37
PPG
1.57
76.7%
Win rate
42.9%
6.7%
Draw rate
28.6%
16.7%
Loss rate
28.6%
76.7%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
46.4%
26.7%
Over 3.5 rate
28.6%
1.83
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.68
30
History Matches
28
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.82
Goals for per game
1.41
81.7%
Scoring rate
83.9%
41.7%
BTTS rate
62.5%
2.07
Goals for per game
1.39
86.7%
Scoring rate
78.6%
43.3%
BTTS rate
53.6%
2.37
Goals for per game
1.19
84.2%
Scoring rate
68.8%
31.6%
BTTS rate
50.0%
60
History Matches
56
1.82
Goals Mean
1.41
1.34
Goals Std
0.86
81.7%
Scored 1+ rate
83.9%
56.7%
Scored 2+ rate
48.2%
26.7%
Scored 3+ rate
8.9%
2.07
Venue Goals Mean
1.39
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.85
Goals against per game
1.46
51.7%
Conceding rate
71.4%
0.73
Goals against per game
1.36
53.3%
Conceding rate
64.3%
0.53
Goals against per game
1.44
36.8%
Conceding rate
75.0%
60
History Matches
56
0.85
Conceded Mean
1.46
1.14
Conceded Std
1.38
18.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
39.3%
6.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
21.4%
0.73
Venue Conceded Mean
1.36
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
48.3%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
18.3%
Failed-to-score rate
16.1%
46.7%
Clean-sheet rate
35.7%
13.3%
Failed-to-score rate
21.4%
63.2%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
15.8%
Failed-to-score rate
31.3%
48.3%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
18.3%
Failed-to-score rate
16.1%
46.7%
Clean-sheet rate
35.7%
13.3%
Failed-to-score rate
21.4%
48.3%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
60
History Matches
56
0.81
Result entropy
0.98
1.97
Goal Difference Std
1.49
19.02
Stability score
1.57
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
59
Eligible Matches
53
29
Lead Matches
17
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
64.7%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
0.75
13
Trailing Matches
19
30.8%
Non-loss rate
26.3%
15.4%
Trailing Win Rate
10.5%
Goal timing5 signals
50
59
Halftime Coverage Matches
53
0.76
First Half Goals For Mean
0.62
0.51
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.70
1.05
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.77
0.34
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.74
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
82.96
Rest days
91.96
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
1
1.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
35
Normal Rest History Matches
29
2.40
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.28
22
Long Rest History Matches
25
1.68
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.56
Competition & season17 signals
170
19
Matches
16
2.37
PPG
1.19
73.7%
Win rate
37.5%
15.8%
Draw rate
6.3%
10.5%
Loss rate
56.3%
78.9%
Over 1.5 rate
56.3%
68.4%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
31.6%
Over 3.5 rate
31.3%
1.98
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.20
19
Current Competition Matches
16
2.37
Current Competition PPG
1.19
1.84
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.25
6
Competition Season Count
5
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.37
Portability PPG Std
0.16
0.87
Portability PPG Range
0.40
57.69
Portability Score
75.31
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
60
Clean History Matches
56
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO166.7
PPG0.69
GF0.41
GA-0.61
PPG1.18
PPG0.80
PPG2.00
PPG1.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate19.8%
Failed-to-score rate2.3%
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate11.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.08
History Matches4
Goals Mean0.41
Goals Std0.47
Scored 1+ rate-0.02
Scored 2+ rate8.5%
Scored 3+ rate17.7%
Venue Goals Mean0.67
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std0.59
History Matches4
Conceded Mean-0.61
Conceded Std-0.24
Clean-sheet rate19.8%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.21
Conceded 3+ rate-0.15
Venue Conceded Mean-0.62
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.42
History Matches4
Result entropy-0.17
Goal Difference Std0.47
Stability score17.45
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.48
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.63
Eligible Matches6
Lead Matches12
Lead Win Rate35.3%
Lead Points Retention0.25
Trailing Matches-6
Non-loss rate4.5%
Trailing Win Rate4.9%
Halftime Coverage Matches6
First Half Goals For Mean0.14
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.19
Second Half Goals For Mean0.28
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.40
Current Competition Matches3
Current Competition PPG1.18
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean2.09
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.20
Portability PPG Range0.47
Portability Score-17.62
Rest days-9.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.50
Normal Rest History Matches6
Normal Rest Points Per Match1.12
Long Rest History Matches-3
Long Rest Points Per Match0.12
Current Team ELO166.7
Current Opponent ELO-166.7
Current ELO Difference333.4
Expected score0.45
History Matches4
Residual Mean0.14
Overperformance10.34
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.29

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Neftchi

D
Tractor Sazi2–2Neftchi2 Nov · away
Pick: Tractor Sazi 35% · missed
L
Neftchi1–2Al-Ittihad FC26 Oct · home
Pick: Al-Ittihad FC 44% · hit
W
Pakhtakor1–3Neftchi23 Oct · away
Pick: Pakhtakor 40% · missed
L
Neftchi2–4Lokomotiv20 Oct · home
Pick: Neftchi 60% · missed
W
Kokand-19122–4Neftchi16 Oct · away
Pick: Neftchi 61% · hit

Bunyodkor

L
Bunyodkor1–2Xorazm5 Nov · home
Pick: Bunyodkor 48% · missed
D
Bunyodkor1–1Sogdiana16 Oct · home
Pick: Bunyodkor 39% · missed
L
Lokomotiv4–1Bunyodkor26 Aug · away
Pick: Lokomotiv 48% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Neftchi and Bunyodkor meet in Super League on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. The match is played at Istiqlol Stadium, Fergana. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Neftchi win 71.8%, draw 17.1%, Bunyodkor win 11.0%. The pick is Neftchi win. Over 2.5 goals: 57.2%. Both teams to score: 50.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.