ScoreProb
FA Cup England 1/128-finals 2026

Newport County vs Walsall

Newport County Home · Elo 1,449
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Walsall Away · Elo 1,486
Rodney Parade, Newport Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Walsall win
Newport County win
30.1%
Draw
26.1%
Walsall winPick
43.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes50.3%
No49.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.552.5%
Under 2.547.5%

How much we know

Newport County history89 matches
Walsall history89 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (43.9%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Walsall are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Walsall are rated 37 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,486 against 1,449. On rating alone Walsall would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.08 goals a game over 89 matches for Newport County, against 1.19 over 89 for Walsall.

  • Walsall concede fewer

    Newport County concede 1.58 a game, Walsall 1.20.

  • Newport County games more often go over 2.5 goals

    55% of Newport County matches, against 46% for Walsall. The model puts this match at 52% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 26 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Newport County
Walsall
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1448.7
ELO
1486.1
89
ELO · Matches
89
1448.7
Current Team ELO
1486.1
1486.1
Current Opponent ELO
1448.7
-37.44
Current ELO Difference
37.44
0.45
Expected score
0.55
89
History Matches
89
-0.03
Residual Mean
-0.02
47.46
Overperformance
48.73
0.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.04
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.80
2.00
Goals for per game
0.80
2.20
Goals against per game
0.00
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
1.00
1.80
Goals for per game
0.50
1.90
Goals against per game
1.10
30.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.50
1.47
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.92
1.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
1.76
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.64
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
2.55
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.01
Overall performance9 signals
90
89
Matches
89
1.03
PPG
1.35
28.1%
Win rate
34.8%
19.1%
Draw rate
30.3%
52.8%
Loss rate
34.8%
73.0%
Over 1.5 rate
66.3%
55.1%
Over 2.5 rate
46.1%
27.0%
Over 3.5 rate
28.1%
1.79
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.56
Venue performance10 signals
100
42
Matches
48
1.05
PPG
1.54
28.6%
Win rate
41.7%
19.0%
Draw rate
29.2%
52.4%
Loss rate
29.2%
71.4%
Over 1.5 rate
70.8%
47.6%
Over 2.5 rate
45.8%
26.2%
Over 3.5 rate
27.1%
1.68
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.59
42
History Matches
48
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.08
Goals for per game
1.19
62.9%
Scoring rate
65.2%
47.2%
BTTS rate
47.2%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.38
59.5%
Scoring rate
70.8%
45.2%
BTTS rate
45.8%
89
History Matches
89
1.08
Goals Mean
1.19
1.08
Goals Std
1.10
62.9%
Scored 1+ rate
65.2%
30.3%
Scored 2+ rate
38.2%
12.4%
Scored 3+ rate
13.5%
1.00
Venue Goals Mean
1.38
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.58
Goals against per game
1.20
76.4%
Conceding rate
68.5%
1.52
Goals against per game
1.08
76.2%
Conceding rate
64.6%
89
History Matches
89
1.58
Conceded Mean
1.20
1.31
Conceded Std
1.14
47.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
34.8%
22.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
10.1%
1.52
Venue Conceded Mean
1.08
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
23.6%
Clean-sheet rate
31.5%
37.1%
Failed-to-score rate
34.8%
23.8%
Clean-sheet rate
35.4%
40.5%
Failed-to-score rate
29.2%
23.6%
Clean-sheet rate
31.5%
37.1%
Failed-to-score rate
34.8%
23.8%
Clean-sheet rate
35.4%
40.5%
Failed-to-score rate
29.2%
23.6%
Clean-sheet rate
31.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
89
History Matches
89
0.92
Result entropy
1.00
1.79
Goal Difference Std
1.56
8.06
Stability score
0.19
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
89
Eligible Matches
89
19
Lead Matches
23
63.2%
Lead Win Rate
73.9%
0.68
Lead Points Retention
0.80
27
Trailing Matches
25
18.5%
Non-loss rate
28.0%
11.1%
Trailing Win Rate
16.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
89
Halftime Coverage Matches
89
0.48
First Half Goals For Mean
0.49
0.62
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.53
0.60
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.70
0.97
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.67
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.15
Rest days
73.84
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
7
Short Rest History Matches
5
0.14
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
71
Normal Rest History Matches
69
1.11
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.39
10
Long Rest History Matches
14
1.10
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.36
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
9
Competition Season Count
9
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.22
Portability PPG Std
0.52
0.57
Portability PPG Range
1.50
69.53
Portability Score
48.98
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
89
Clean History Matches
89
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO-37.44
PPG-0.31
GF-0.11
GA0.38
PPG-0.49
PPG-0.40
PPG0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate-0.08
Failed-to-score rate2.2%
History Matches-6
Clean-sheet rate-0.12
Failed-to-score rate11.3%
History Matches0
Goals Mean-0.11
Goals Std-0.02
Scored 1+ rate-0.02
Scored 2+ rate-0.08
Scored 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Goals Mean-0.38
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.30
Recent 10 Goals Std0.55
History Matches0
Conceded Mean0.38
Conceded Std0.16
Clean-sheet rate-0.08
Conceded 2+ rate12.4%
Conceded 3+ rate12.4%
Venue Conceded Mean0.44
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.12
History Matches0
Result entropy-0.08
Goal Difference Std0.23
Stability score7.87
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.03
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.54
Eligible Matches0
Lead Matches-4
Lead Win Rate-0.11
Lead Points Retention-0.11
Trailing Matches2
Non-loss rate-0.09
Trailing Win Rate-0.05
Halftime Coverage Matches0
First Half Goals For Mean-0.01
First Half Goals Against Mean0.09
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.10
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.29
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.30
Portability PPG Range-0.93
Portability Score20.55
Rest days3.30
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.86
Normal Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.28
Long Rest History Matches-4
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.26
Current Team ELO-37.44
Current Opponent ELO37.44
Current ELO Difference-74.88
Expected score-0.11
History Matches0
Residual Mean-0.02
Overperformance-1.27
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.11

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Newport County

L
Newport County1–2Crystal Palace U213 Nov · home
Pick: Newport County 58% · missed
W
Newport County4–1Chesterfield30 Oct · home
Pick: Newport County 42% · hit
L
Cheltenham1–0Newport County24 Oct · away
Pick: Newport County 40% · missed
D
Rotherham2–2Newport County20 Oct · away
Pick: Rotherham 36% · missed
D
Newport County1–1York17 Oct · home
Pick: Newport County 41% · missed

Walsall

W
Colchester1–3Walsall31 Oct · away
Pick: Walsall 38% · hit
L
Walsall2–4Salford City26 Oct · home
Pick: Walsall 49% · missed
W
Walsall3–0Oldham20 Oct · home
Pick: Walsall 46% · hit
D
Swindon Town1–1Walsall17 Oct · away
Pick: Walsall 39% · missed
W
Walsall3–2Fulham U2113 Oct · home
Pick: Walsall 58% · hit

About this match

Newport County and Walsall meet in FA Cup on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. The match is played at Rodney Parade, Newport. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Newport County win 30.1%, draw 26.1%, Walsall win 43.9%. The pick is Walsall win. Over 2.5 goals: 52.5%. Both teams to score: 50.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.