ScoreProb
I Liga Poland Round 14 2026

Nieciecza vs Chrobry Głogów

Nieciecza Home · Elo 1,545
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Chrobry Głogów Away · Elo 1,517
Termalica Bruk-Bet Nieciecza Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Nieciecza win
Nieciecza winPick
41.4%
Draw
21.6%
Chrobry Głogów win
37.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes58.0%
No42.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.560.3%
Under 2.539.7%

How much we know

Nieciecza history74 matches
Chrobry Głogów history71 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 14:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (41.4%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Nieciecza are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Nieciecza are rated 28 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,545 against 1,517. On rating alone Nieciecza would be expected to take 54% of the points on offer.

  • Nieciecza score more

    1.77 goals a game over 74 matches for Nieciecza, against 1.46 over 71 for Chrobry Głogów.

  • Chrobry Głogów concede fewer

    Nieciecza concede 1.64 a game, Chrobry Głogów 1.31.

  • Nieciecza games more often go over 2.5 goals

    66% of Nieciecza matches, against 58% for Chrobry Głogów. The model puts this match at 60% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Nieciecza
Chrobry Głogów
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1544.9
ELO
1516.9
74
ELO · Matches
71
1544.9
Current Team ELO
1516.9
1516.9
Current Opponent ELO
1544.9
27.97
Current ELO Difference
-27.97
0.54
Expected score
0.46
74
History Matches
71
0.04
Residual Mean
0.02
52.78
Overperformance
51.17
-0.03
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.15
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
1.40
1.20
Goals for per game
1.60
1.80
Goals against per game
1.00
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
1.00
1.40
Goals for per game
1.40
1.70
Goals against per game
1.70
40.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
0.49
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.50
1.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.70
1.68
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.00
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
2.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.05
Overall performance9 signals
90
74
Matches
71
1.51
PPG
1.44
43.2%
Win rate
39.4%
21.6%
Draw rate
25.4%
35.1%
Loss rate
35.2%
89.2%
Over 1.5 rate
80.3%
66.2%
Over 2.5 rate
57.7%
41.9%
Over 3.5 rate
25.4%
2.10
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.39
Venue performance10 signals
100
39
Matches
34
1.49
PPG
1.18
41.0%
Win rate
32.4%
25.6%
Draw rate
20.6%
33.3%
Loss rate
47.1%
89.7%
Over 1.5 rate
79.4%
59.0%
Over 2.5 rate
55.9%
38.5%
Over 3.5 rate
23.5%
1.98
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.54
39
History Matches
34
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.77
Goals for per game
1.46
87.8%
Scoring rate
81.7%
70.3%
BTTS rate
64.8%
1.74
Goals for per game
1.29
87.2%
Scoring rate
76.5%
69.2%
BTTS rate
61.8%
1.40
Goals for per game
1.60
100.0%
Scoring rate
60.0%
80.0%
BTTS rate
60.0%
74
History Matches
71
1.77
Goals Mean
1.46
1.35
Goals Std
1.05
87.8%
Scored 1+ rate
81.7%
50.0%
Scored 2+ rate
45.1%
23.0%
Scored 3+ rate
16.9%
1.74
Venue Goals Mean
1.29
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.64
Goals against per game
1.31
82.4%
Conceding rate
78.9%
1.49
Goals against per game
1.47
82.1%
Conceding rate
79.4%
1.60
Goals against per game
1.00
80.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
74
History Matches
71
1.64
Conceded Mean
1.31
1.36
Conceded Std
0.96
41.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
40.8%
23.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
8.5%
1.49
Venue Conceded Mean
1.47
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
17.6%
Clean-sheet rate
21.1%
12.2%
Failed-to-score rate
18.3%
17.9%
Clean-sheet rate
20.6%
12.8%
Failed-to-score rate
23.5%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
17.6%
Clean-sheet rate
21.1%
12.2%
Failed-to-score rate
18.3%
17.9%
Clean-sheet rate
20.6%
12.8%
Failed-to-score rate
23.5%
17.6%
Clean-sheet rate
21.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
74
History Matches
71
0.97
Result entropy
0.99
2.10
Goal Difference Std
1.39
3.41
Stability score
1.48
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
74
Eligible Matches
69
23
Lead Matches
19
78.3%
Lead Win Rate
63.2%
0.83
Lead Points Retention
0.72
27
Trailing Matches
21
25.9%
Non-loss rate
28.6%
7.4%
Trailing Win Rate
9.5%
Goal timing5 signals
50
74
Halftime Coverage Matches
69
0.78
First Half Goals For Mean
0.57
0.86
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.64
0.99
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.88
0.77
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.67
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
77.94
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
9
Short Rest History Matches
5
2.22
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.00
32
Normal Rest History Matches
34
1.56
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.53
32
Long Rest History Matches
31
1.28
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.26
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
1.40
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
20.0%
60.0%
Loss rate
40.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
60.0%
80.0%
Over 2.5 rate
40.0%
20.0%
Over 3.5 rate
20.0%
1.47
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.85
5
Current Competition Matches
5
1.20
Current Competition PPG
1.40
-0.20
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.60
6
Competition Season Count
6
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.54
Portability PPG Std
0.23
1.50
Portability PPG Range
0.67
47.97
Portability Score
68.70
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
74
Clean History Matches
71
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO27.97
PPG0.08
GF0.31
GA0.33
PPG-0.20
PPG0.31
PPG-0.60
PPG0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Failed-to-score rate-0.06
History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Failed-to-score rate-0.11
History Matches3
Goals Mean0.31
Goals Std0.31
Scored 1+ rate6.1%
Scored 2+ rate4.9%
Scored 3+ rate6.1%
Venue Goals Mean0.45
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Std-1.01
History Matches3
Conceded Mean0.33
Conceded Std0.40
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Conceded 2+ rate1.0%
Conceded 3+ rate14.5%
Venue Conceded Mean0.02
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.67
History Matches3
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std0.71
Stability score1.93
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.14
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.05
Eligible Matches5
Lead Matches4
Lead Win Rate15.1%
Lead Points Retention0.11
Trailing Matches6
Non-loss rate-0.03
Trailing Win Rate-0.02
Halftime Coverage Matches5
First Half Goals For Mean0.22
First Half Goals Against Mean0.23
Second Half Goals For Mean0.10
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.10
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.20
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.80
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.31
Portability PPG Range0.83
Portability Score-20.73
Rest days-0.90
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches4
Short Rest Points Per Match0.22
Normal Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.03
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.02
Current Team ELO27.97
Current Opponent ELO-27.97
Current ELO Difference55.93
Expected score0.08
History Matches3
Residual Mean0.02
Overperformance1.61
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.12

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Nieciecza

D
Miedz Legnica1–1Nieciecza31 Oct · away
Pick: Miedz Legnica 54% · missed
W
Olimpia Grudziądz0–1Nieciecza27 Oct · away
Pick: Olimpia Grudziądz 42% · missed
L
Arka Gdynia3–1Nieciecza24 Oct · away
Pick: Arka Gdynia 48% · hit
W
Nieciecza2–0Puszcza Niepołomice19 Oct · home
Pick: Nieciecza 48% · hit
W
Wigry Suwałki1–5Nieciecza1 Sep · away
Pick: Nieciecza 37% · hit

Chrobry Głogów

D
Chrobry Głogów0–0Arka Gdynia3 Nov · home
Pick: Chrobry Głogów 42% · missed
W
Chrobry Głogów2–0Polonia Bytom29 Oct · home
Pick: Chrobry Głogów 41% · hit
D
Stal Mielec0–0Chrobry Głogów24 Oct · away
Pick: Chrobry Głogów 44% · missed
L
Polonia Bytom3–2Chrobry Głogów17 Oct · away
Pick: Chrobry Głogów 40% · missed
W
Chrobry Głogów2–0Ruch Chorzów30 Aug · home
Pick: Chrobry Głogów 47% · hit

About this match

Nieciecza and Chrobry Głogów meet in I Liga on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 14:30 UTC. The match is played at Termalica Bruk-Bet Nieciecza. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Nieciecza win 41.4%, draw 21.6%, Chrobry Głogów win 37.0%. The pick is Nieciecza win. Over 2.5 goals: 60.3%. Both teams to score: 58.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.