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National 2 - Group C France Group C - 10 2026

Nimes vs Istres

Nimes Home · Elo 1,551
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Istres Away · Elo 1,517
Stade des Antonins Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Nimes win
Nimes winPick
51.9%
Draw
24.6%
Istres win
23.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes49.6%
No50.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.549.3%
Under 2.550.7%

How much we know

Nimes history48 matches
Istres history47 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 8 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 17:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (51.9%). Picks in that band won 55.6% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 4,146 matches.

Why Nimes are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Nimes are rated 34 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,551 against 1,517. On rating alone Nimes would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.27 goals a game over 48 matches for Nimes, against 1.36 over 47 for Istres.

  • Defences are close

    Nimes concede 1.15 a game, Istres 1.13.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    50% of Nimes matches, against 47% for Istres. The model puts this match at 49% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Nimes
Istres@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1551.3
ELO
1517.1
48
ELO · Matches
47
1551.3
Current Team ELO
1517.1
1517.1
Current Opponent ELO
1551.3
34.18
Current ELO Difference
-34.18
0.55
Expected score
0.45
48
History Matches
47
0.05
Residual Mean
0.01
53.31
Overperformance
50.84
0.00
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.09
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
0.60
1.60
Goals for per game
0.60
2.20
Goals against per game
1.40
40.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.50
PPG
1.10
1.80
Goals for per game
1.10
1.80
Goals against per game
1.10
50.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.10
1.08
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.22
1.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
1.33
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.04
0.63
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
2.28
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.67
Overall performance9 signals
90
48
Matches
47
1.50
PPG
1.45
43.8%
Win rate
38.3%
18.8%
Draw rate
29.8%
37.5%
Loss rate
31.9%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
63.8%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
46.8%
20.8%
Over 3.5 rate
29.8%
1.88
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.56
Venue performance10 signals
100
22
Matches
25
2.00
PPG
1.60
59.1%
Win rate
44.0%
22.7%
Draw rate
28.0%
18.2%
Loss rate
28.0%
77.3%
Over 1.5 rate
68.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
56.0%
18.2%
Over 3.5 rate
36.0%
1.61
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.39
22
History Matches
25
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.27
Goals for per game
1.36
68.8%
Scoring rate
66.0%
37.5%
BTTS rate
48.9%
1.73
Goals for per game
1.44
81.8%
Scoring rate
76.0%
31.8%
BTTS rate
60.0%
3.00
Goals for per game
0.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
0.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
48
History Matches
47
1.27
Goals Mean
1.36
1.09
Goals Std
1.39
68.8%
Scored 1+ rate
66.0%
39.6%
Scored 2+ rate
36.2%
18.8%
Scored 3+ rate
17.0%
1.73
Venue Goals Mean
1.44
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.15
Goals against per game
1.13
54.2%
Conceding rate
68.1%
0.68
Goals against per game
1.32
31.8%
Conceding rate
76.0%
1.00
Goals against per game
0.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
0.0%
48
History Matches
47
1.15
Conceded Mean
1.13
1.29
Conceded Std
0.98
37.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
34.0%
14.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
10.6%
0.68
Venue Conceded Mean
1.32
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
45.8%
Clean-sheet rate
31.9%
31.3%
Failed-to-score rate
34.0%
68.2%
Clean-sheet rate
24.0%
18.2%
Failed-to-score rate
24.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
100.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
100.0%
45.8%
Clean-sheet rate
31.9%
31.3%
Failed-to-score rate
34.0%
68.2%
Clean-sheet rate
24.0%
18.2%
Failed-to-score rate
24.0%
45.8%
Clean-sheet rate
31.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
48
History Matches
47
0.95
Result entropy
0.99
1.88
Goal Difference Std
1.56
5.03
Stability score
0.53
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
47
Eligible Matches
46
11
Lead Matches
15
81.8%
Lead Win Rate
86.7%
0.82
Lead Points Retention
0.91
11
Trailing Matches
10
18.2%
Non-loss rate
30.0%
18.2%
Trailing Win Rate
10.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
47
Halftime Coverage Matches
46
0.49
First Half Goals For Mean
0.63
0.43
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.43
0.74
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.76
0.72
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.72
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
84.00
Rest days
84.08
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
34
Normal Rest History Matches
23
1.44
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.61
13
Long Rest History Matches
23
1.69
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.22
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
3.00
PPG
1.00
100.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
100.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
3.00
Current Competition PPG
1.00
2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
4
Competition Season Count
4
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.81
Portability PPG Std
0.15
1.97
Portability PPG Range
0.33
38.09
Portability Score
76.53
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
48
Clean History Matches
47
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO34.18
PPG0.05
GF-0.09
GA0.02
PPG2.00
PPG0.40
PPG0.60
PPG0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate13.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.03
History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate44.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.06
History Matches1
Goals Mean-0.09
Goals Std-0.30
Scored 1+ rate2.8%
Scored 2+ rate3.4%
Scored 3+ rate1.7%
Venue Goals Mean0.29
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.14
History Matches1
Conceded Mean0.02
Conceded Std0.31
Clean-sheet rate13.9%
Conceded 2+ rate3.5%
Conceded 3+ rate3.9%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.64
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.28
History Matches1
Result entropy-0.05
Goal Difference Std0.32
Stability score4.50
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.31
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.61
Eligible Matches1
Lead Matches-4
Lead Win Rate-0.05
Lead Points Retention-0.09
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate-0.12
Trailing Win Rate8.2%
Halftime Coverage Matches1
First Half Goals For Mean-0.14
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.01
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.02
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.01
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean2.00
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.66
Portability PPG Range1.63
Portability Score-38.44
Rest days-0.08
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches11
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.17
Long Rest History Matches-10
Long Rest Points Per Match0.47
Current Team ELO34.18
Current Opponent ELO-34.18
Current ELO Difference68.35
Expected score0.10
History Matches1
Residual Mean0.03
Overperformance2.47
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.09

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Nimes

D
Nimes2–2Limonest31 Oct · home
Pick: Nimes 62% · missed
W
Nimes3–0Fréjus St-Raphaël29 Aug · home
Pick: Nimes 45% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Istres

D
Istres0–0Saint-Priest7 Nov · home
Pick: Istres 59% · missed
L
Rumilly Vallières5–0Istres31 Oct · away
Pick: Rumilly Vallières 50% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Nimes and Istres meet in National 2 - Group C on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 17:00 UTC. The match is played at Stade des Antonins. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Nimes win 51.9%, draw 24.6%, Istres win 23.4%. The pick is Nimes win. Over 2.5 goals: 49.3%. Both teams to score: 49.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.