ScoreProb
League One China Round 30 2026

Ningbo Professional vs Heilongjiang Lava Spring

Ningbo Professional Home · Elo 1,515
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Heilongjiang Lava Spring Away · Elo 1,489
Ningbo Cixi Stadium Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Ningbo Professional win
Ningbo Professional winPick
45.8%
Draw
26.5%
Heilongjiang Lava Spring win
27.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes58.5%
No41.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.555.0%
Under 2.545.0%

How much we know

Ningbo Professional history21 matches
Heilongjiang Lava Spring history53 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 21 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 06:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (45.8%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Ningbo Professional are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Ningbo Professional are rated 26 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,515 against 1,489. On rating alone Ningbo Professional would be expected to take 54% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.38 goals a game over 21 matches for Ningbo Professional, against 1.42 over 53 for Heilongjiang Lava Spring.

  • Ningbo Professional concede fewer

    Ningbo Professional concede 1.33 a game, Heilongjiang Lava Spring 1.49.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    57% of Ningbo Professional matches, against 53% for Heilongjiang Lava Spring. The model puts this match at 55% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Ningbo Professional
Heilongjiang Lava Spring
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1515.2
ELO
1488.8
21
ELO · Matches
53
1515.2
Current Team ELO
1488.8
1488.8
Current Opponent ELO
1515.2
26.35
Current ELO Difference
-26.35
0.54
Expected score
0.46
21
History Matches
53
0.04
Residual Mean
-0.01
52.08
Overperformance
49.08
0.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.16
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
1.00
1.20
Goals for per game
1.80
1.80
Goals against per game
2.60
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.60
PPG
0.70
1.30
Goals for per game
1.60
1.40
Goals against per game
2.60
50.0%
Win rate
10.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.60
0.78
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.28
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.60
1.28
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.28
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.22
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.48
Overall performance9 signals
90
21
Matches
53
1.48
PPG
1.30
42.9%
Win rate
30.2%
19.0%
Draw rate
39.6%
38.1%
Loss rate
30.2%
76.2%
Over 1.5 rate
84.9%
57.1%
Over 2.5 rate
52.8%
23.8%
Over 3.5 rate
28.3%
1.59
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.40
Venue performance10 signals
100
11
Matches
27
1.18
PPG
1.07
36.4%
Win rate
22.2%
9.1%
Draw rate
40.7%
54.5%
Loss rate
37.0%
81.8%
Over 1.5 rate
81.5%
63.6%
Over 2.5 rate
44.4%
36.4%
Over 3.5 rate
25.9%
1.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.52
11
History Matches
27
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.38
Goals for per game
1.42
76.2%
Scoring rate
84.9%
57.1%
BTTS rate
69.8%
1.36
Goals for per game
1.19
81.8%
Scoring rate
77.8%
63.6%
BTTS rate
59.3%
1.32
Goals for per game
1.50
78.9%
Scoring rate
90.0%
57.9%
BTTS rate
85.0%
21
History Matches
53
1.38
Goals Mean
1.42
1.09
Goals Std
0.94
76.2%
Scored 1+ rate
84.9%
42.9%
Scored 2+ rate
41.5%
14.3%
Scored 3+ rate
13.2%
1.36
Venue Goals Mean
1.19
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.33
Goals against per game
1.49
71.4%
Conceding rate
81.1%
1.82
Goals against per game
1.63
81.8%
Conceding rate
74.1%
1.32
Goals against per game
1.90
68.4%
Conceding rate
95.0%
21
History Matches
53
1.33
Conceded Mean
1.49
1.17
Conceded Std
1.19
38.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
37.7%
19.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
22.6%
1.82
Venue Conceded Mean
1.63
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
18.9%
23.8%
Failed-to-score rate
15.1%
18.2%
Clean-sheet rate
25.9%
18.2%
Failed-to-score rate
22.2%
31.6%
Clean-sheet rate
5.0%
21.1%
Failed-to-score rate
10.0%
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
18.9%
23.8%
Failed-to-score rate
15.1%
18.2%
Clean-sheet rate
25.9%
18.2%
Failed-to-score rate
22.2%
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
18.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
21
History Matches
53
0.95
Result entropy
0.99
1.59
Goal Difference Std
1.40
4.73
Stability score
0.79
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
21
Eligible Matches
53
5
Lead Matches
14
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
64.3%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
0.76
7
Trailing Matches
16
28.6%
Non-loss rate
37.5%
14.3%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
21
Halftime Coverage Matches
53
0.67
First Half Goals For Mean
0.60
0.62
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.70
0.71
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.81
0.71
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.79
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
76.81
Rest days
76.79
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
12
Normal Rest History Matches
33
1.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.30
8
Long Rest History Matches
19
2.38
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.32
Competition & season17 signals
170
19
Matches
20
1.47
PPG
1.10
42.1%
Win rate
20.0%
21.1%
Draw rate
50.0%
36.8%
Loss rate
30.0%
73.7%
Over 1.5 rate
90.0%
57.9%
Over 2.5 rate
60.0%
21.1%
Over 3.5 rate
35.0%
1.45
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.28
19
Current Competition Matches
20
1.47
Current Competition PPG
1.10
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.40
2
Competition Season Count
4
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
—
Portability PPG Std
0.18
—
Portability PPG Range
0.37
—
Portability Score
73.17
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
21
Clean History Matches
53
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scorePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO26.35
PPG0.17
GF-0.03
GA-0.16
PPG0.37
PPG0.11
PPG-0.20
PPG0.90
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-32
Clean-sheet rate9.7%
Failed-to-score rate8.7%
History Matches-16
Clean-sheet rate-0.08
Failed-to-score rate-0.04
History Matches-32
Goals Mean-0.03
Goals Std0.15
Scored 1+ rate-0.09
Scored 2+ rate1.3%
Scored 3+ rate1.1%
Venue Goals Mean0.18
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.50
History Matches-32
Conceded Mean-0.16
Conceded Std-0.02
Clean-sheet rate9.7%
Conceded 2+ rate0.4%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Conceded Mean0.19
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.00
History Matches-32
Result entropy-0.04
Goal Difference Std0.19
Stability score3.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.26
Eligible Matches-32
Lead Matches-9
Lead Win Rate35.7%
Lead Points Retention0.24
Trailing Matches-9
Non-loss rate-0.09
Trailing Win Rate14.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches-32
First Half Goals For Mean0.06
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.08
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.10
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.08
Current Competition Matches-1
Current Competition PPG0.37
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.40
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Rest days0.02
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-21
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.30
Long Rest History Matches-11
Long Rest Points Per Match1.06
Current Team ELO26.35
Current Opponent ELO-26.35
Current ELO Difference52.71
Expected score0.08
History Matches-32
Residual Mean0.05
Overperformance3.00
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.20

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Ningbo Professional

W
Dongguan United1–4Ningbo Professional31 Oct · away
Pick: Ningbo Professional 52% · hit
L
Hebei Kungfu3–2Ningbo Professional24 Oct · away
Pick: Hebei Kungfu 42% · hit
D
Ningbo Professional1–1Suzhou Dongwu17 Oct · home
Pick: Ningbo Professional 46% · missed
L
Nantong Zhiyun1–0Ningbo Professional6 Oct · away
Pick: Nantong Zhiyun 57% · hit
D
Ningbo Professional1–1Meizhou Kejia30 Aug · home
Pick: Ningbo Professional 58% · missed

Heilongjiang Lava Spring

D
Heilongjiang Lava Spring0–0Shenzhen Juniors31 Oct · home
Pick: Shenzhen Juniors 38% · missed
L
Heilongjiang Lava Spring1–2Yanbian Longding25 Oct · home
Pick: Yanbian Longding 38% · hit
W
Wuxi Wugou0–2Heilongjiang Lava Spring17 Oct · away
Pick: Wuxi Wugou 52% · missed
D
Heilongjiang Lava Spring0–0Meizhou Kejia6 Oct · home
Pick: Heilongjiang Lava Spring 58% · missed
L
Heilongjiang Lava Spring3–4Suzhou Dongwu29 Aug · home
Pick: Heilongjiang Lava Spring 43% · missed

About this match

Ningbo Professional and Heilongjiang Lava Spring meet in League One on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 06:30 UTC. The match is played at Ningbo Cixi Stadium. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Ningbo Professional win 45.8%, draw 26.5%, Heilongjiang Lava Spring win 27.7%. The pick is Ningbo Professional win. Over 2.5 goals: 55.0%. Both teams to score: 58.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.