ScoreProb
Second Amateur Division - VFV A Belgium VFV A - 11 2026

Ninove vs VW Hamme

Ninove Home · Elo 1,381
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
VW Hamme Away · Elo 1,509
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Ninove win
Ninove winPick
40.6%
Draw
19.4%
VW Hamme win
40.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes62.3%
No37.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.568.1%
Under 2.531.9%

How much we know

Ninove history43 matches
VW Hamme history38 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 9 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 18:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (40.6%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Ninove are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • VW Hamme are rated 128 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,509 against 1,381. On rating alone VW Hamme would be expected to take 68% of the points on offer.

  • VW Hamme score more

    1.28 goals a game over 43 matches for Ninove, against 1.63 over 38 for VW Hamme.

  • VW Hamme concede fewer

    Ninove concede 2.60 a game, VW Hamme 1.58.

  • Ninove games more often go over 2.5 goals

    74% of Ninove matches, against 63% for VW Hamme. The model puts this match at 68% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 26 Apr 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Ninove
VW Hamme
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1380.8
ELO
1509.1
43
ELO · Matches
38
1380.8
Current Team ELO
1509.1
1509.1
Current Opponent ELO
1380.8
-128.3
Current ELO Difference
128.3
0.32
Expected score
0.68
43
History Matches
38
-0.14
Residual Mean
0.01
40.35
Overperformance
50.77
-0.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.09
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
0.80
1.00
Goals for per game
1.40
3.20
Goals against per game
2.60
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
0.70
PPG
1.60
1.20
Goals for per game
1.70
2.50
Goals against per game
1.80
20.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.70
1.33
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.00
2.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.80
1.36
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.78
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
2.37
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.30
Overall performance9 signals
90
43
Matches
38
0.70
PPG
1.50
18.6%
Win rate
44.7%
14.0%
Draw rate
15.8%
67.4%
Loss rate
39.5%
97.7%
Over 1.5 rate
86.8%
74.4%
Over 2.5 rate
63.2%
48.8%
Over 3.5 rate
36.8%
1.91
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.30
Venue performance10 signals
100
20
Matches
19
0.95
PPG
1.63
25.0%
Win rate
47.4%
20.0%
Draw rate
21.1%
55.0%
Loss rate
31.6%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
94.7%
90.0%
Over 2.5 rate
63.2%
60.0%
Over 3.5 rate
47.4%
2.20
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.52
20
History Matches
19
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.28
Goals for per game
1.63
67.4%
Scoring rate
76.3%
65.1%
BTTS rate
50.0%
1.65
Goals for per game
1.68
85.0%
Scoring rate
84.2%
80.0%
BTTS rate
57.9%
43
History Matches
38
1.28
Goals Mean
1.63
1.21
Goals Std
1.27
67.4%
Scored 1+ rate
76.3%
37.2%
Scored 2+ rate
52.6%
16.3%
Scored 3+ rate
26.3%
1.65
Venue Goals Mean
1.68
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
2.60
Goals against per game
1.58
97.7%
Conceding rate
73.7%
2.85
Goals against per game
1.74
95.0%
Conceding rate
73.7%
43
History Matches
38
2.60
Conceded Mean
1.58
1.53
Conceded Std
1.50
79.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
39.5%
44.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
23.7%
2.85
Venue Conceded Mean
1.74
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
2.3%
Clean-sheet rate
26.3%
32.6%
Failed-to-score rate
23.7%
5.0%
Clean-sheet rate
26.3%
15.0%
Failed-to-score rate
15.8%
2.3%
Clean-sheet rate
26.3%
32.6%
Failed-to-score rate
23.7%
5.0%
Clean-sheet rate
26.3%
15.0%
Failed-to-score rate
15.8%
2.3%
Clean-sheet rate
26.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
43
History Matches
38
0.78
Result entropy
0.93
1.91
Goal Difference Std
2.30
22.32
Stability score
7.32
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
41
Eligible Matches
18
7
Lead Matches
8
42.9%
Lead Win Rate
75.0%
0.48
Lead Points Retention
0.83
19
Trailing Matches
7
26.3%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
10.5%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
41
Halftime Coverage Matches
18
0.51
First Half Goals For Mean
0.89
0.98
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.72
0.83
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.72
1.59
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.17
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
195.2
Rest days
195.2
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
0
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
21
Normal Rest History Matches
20
0.52
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.35
20
Long Rest History Matches
17
0.80
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.71
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.14
Portability PPG Std
0.62
0.28
Portability PPG Range
1.24
77.92
Portability Score
44.69
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
43
Clean History Matches
38
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-128.3
PPG-0.80
GF-0.35
GA1.03
PPG-0.68
PPG-0.20
PPG-0.90
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate-0.24
Failed-to-score rate8.9%
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate-0.21
Failed-to-score rate-0.01
History Matches5
Goals Mean-0.35
Goals Std-0.06
Scored 1+ rate-0.09
Scored 2+ rate-0.15
Scored 3+ rate-0.10
Venue Goals Mean-0.03
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std0.32
History Matches5
Conceded Mean1.03
Conceded Std0.03
Clean-sheet rate-0.24
Conceded 2+ rate39.6%
Conceded 3+ rate20.5%
Venue Conceded Mean1.11
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.42
History Matches5
Result entropy-0.15
Goal Difference Std-0.39
Stability score15.01
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.07
Eligible Matches23
Lead Matches-1
Lead Win Rate-0.32
Lead Points Retention-0.36
Trailing Matches12
Non-loss rate26.3%
Trailing Win Rate10.5%
Halftime Coverage Matches23
First Half Goals For Mean-0.38
First Half Goals Against Mean0.25
Second Half Goals For Mean0.11
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.42
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.48
Portability PPG Range-0.95
Portability Score33.23
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.83
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.91
Current Team ELO-128.3
Current Opponent ELO128.3
Current ELO Difference-256.6
Expected score-0.35
History Matches5
Residual Mean-0.15
Overperformance-10.43
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.15

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Ninove

L
Voorde Appelterre1–0Ninove1 Nov · away
Pick: Ninove 44% · missed
D
Ninove1–1Sparta Petegem24 Oct · home
Pick: Sparta Petegem 49% · missed
D
Oostkamp0–0Ninove18 Oct · away
Pick: Oostkamp 50% · missed
L
Eendracht Aalst3–0Ninove30 Aug · away
Pick: Ninove 47% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

VW Hamme

D
Diksmuide0–0VW Hamme31 Oct · away
Pick: Diksmuide 59% · missed
L
VW Hamme0–3KRC Gent25 Oct · home
Pick: VW Hamme 40% · missed
L
Sparta Petegem2–1VW Hamme18 Oct · away
Pick: Sparta Petegem 49% · hit
W
Londerzeel0–1VW Hamme4 Oct · away
Pick: Londerzeel 49% · missed
D
RFC Wetteren3–3VW Hamme30 Aug · away
Pick: RFC Wetteren 41% · missed

About this match

Ninove and VW Hamme meet in Second Amateur Division - VFV A on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 18:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Ninove win 40.6%, draw 19.4%, VW Hamme win 40.0%. The pick is Ninove win. Over 2.5 goals: 68.1%. Both teams to score: 62.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.