ScoreProb
Premier League 2 Division One England Regular Season 2026

Nottingham Forest U21 vs Leicester City U21

Nottingham Forest U21 Home · Elo 1,508
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Leicester City U21 Away · Elo 1,497
Loughborough University Stadium, Leicestershire Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Nottingham Forest U21 win
Nottingham Forest U21 winPick
57.9%
Draw
20.2%
Leicester City U21 win
21.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes55.1%
No44.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.561.6%
Under 2.538.4%

How much we know

Nottingham Forest U21 history59 matches
Leicester City U21 history46 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 10 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 19:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (57.9%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Nottingham Forest U21 are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,508 against 1,497. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Leicester City U21 score far more

    1.20 goals a game over 59 matches for Nottingham Forest U21, against 2.11 over 46 for Leicester City U21.

  • Nottingham Forest U21 concede fewer

    Nottingham Forest U21 concede 1.15 a game, Leicester City U21 1.85.

  • Leicester City U21 games more often go over 2.5 goals

    41% of Nottingham Forest U21 matches, against 70% for Leicester City U21. The model puts this match at 62% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Nottingham Forest U21
Leicester City U21
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1508.2
ELO
1497.3
59
ELO · Matches
46
1508.2
Current Team ELO
1497.3
1497.3
Current Opponent ELO
1508.2
10.82
Current ELO Difference
-10.82
0.52
Expected score
0.48
59
History Matches
46
0.00
Residual Mean
-0.01
50.15
Overperformance
49.27
0.03
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.06
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.40
1.20
Goals for per game
1.60
1.60
Goals against per game
1.40
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.60
PPG
1.50
1.40
Goals for per game
1.90
1.40
Goals against per game
1.60
50.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.90
0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.45
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.60
1.56
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.11
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
2.14
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.79
Overall performance9 signals
90
59
Matches
46
1.46
PPG
1.37
42.4%
Win rate
39.1%
18.6%
Draw rate
19.6%
39.0%
Loss rate
41.3%
62.7%
Over 1.5 rate
89.1%
40.7%
Over 2.5 rate
69.6%
18.6%
Over 3.5 rate
56.5%
1.63
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.07
Venue performance10 signals
100
28
Matches
25
1.57
PPG
1.28
46.4%
Win rate
36.0%
17.9%
Draw rate
20.0%
35.7%
Loss rate
44.0%
64.3%
Over 1.5 rate
84.0%
35.7%
Over 2.5 rate
56.0%
14.3%
Over 3.5 rate
52.0%
1.69
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.16
28
History Matches
25
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.20
Goals for per game
2.11
72.9%
Scoring rate
76.1%
40.7%
BTTS rate
63.0%
1.21
Goals for per game
1.96
75.0%
Scoring rate
64.0%
35.7%
BTTS rate
52.0%
1.00
Goals for per game
—
100.0%
Scoring rate
—
100.0%
BTTS rate
—
59
History Matches
46
1.20
Goals Mean
2.11
0.97
Goals Std
1.64
72.9%
Scored 1+ rate
76.1%
37.3%
Scored 2+ rate
65.2%
8.5%
Scored 3+ rate
41.3%
1.21
Venue Goals Mean
1.96
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.15
Goals against per game
1.85
61.0%
Conceding rate
80.4%
1.04
Goals against per game
1.72
53.6%
Conceding rate
80.0%
5.00
Goals against per game
—
100.0%
Conceding rate
—
59
History Matches
46
1.15
Conceded Mean
1.85
1.30
Conceded Std
1.38
30.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
58.7%
15.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
28.3%
1.04
Venue Conceded Mean
1.72
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
39.0%
Clean-sheet rate
19.6%
27.1%
Failed-to-score rate
23.9%
46.4%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
36.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
—
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
—
39.0%
Clean-sheet rate
19.6%
27.1%
Failed-to-score rate
23.9%
46.4%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
36.0%
39.0%
Clean-sheet rate
19.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
59
History Matches
46
0.95
Result entropy
0.96
1.63
Goal Difference Std
2.07
4.95
Stability score
4.28
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
59
Eligible Matches
46
20
Lead Matches
15
75.0%
Lead Win Rate
80.0%
0.78
Lead Points Retention
0.82
15
Trailing Matches
19
13.3%
Non-loss rate
21.1%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
59
Halftime Coverage Matches
46
0.64
First Half Goals For Mean
0.89
0.51
First Half Goals Against Mean
1.02
0.56
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.22
0.64
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.83
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
74.04
Rest days
80.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
4
0.75
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.25
39
Normal Rest History Matches
23
1.44
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.13
15
Long Rest History Matches
18
1.60
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.39
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
0
0.00
PPG
—
0.0%
Win rate
—
0.0%
Draw rate
—
100.0%
Loss rate
—
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
—
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
—
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
—
1
Current Competition Matches
0
0.00
Current Competition PPG
—
-4.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
—
14
Competition Season Count
8
8
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.56
Portability PPG Std
0.71
1.95
Portability PPG Range
1.88
47.09
Portability Score
41.46
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
59
Clean History Matches
46
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO10.82
PPG0.09
GF-0.91
GA-0.70
PPG0.29
PPG0.00
PPG0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches13
Clean-sheet rate19.4%
Failed-to-score rate3.2%
History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate26.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.11
History Matches13
Goals Mean-0.91
Goals Std-0.67
Scored 1+ rate-0.03
Scored 2+ rate-0.28
Scored 3+ rate-0.33
Venue Goals Mean-0.75
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.65
History Matches13
Conceded Mean-0.70
Conceded Std-0.08
Clean-sheet rate19.4%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.28
Conceded 3+ rate-0.13
Venue Conceded Mean-0.68
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.45
History Matches13
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.44
Stability score0.67
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.35
Eligible Matches13
Lead Matches5
Lead Win Rate-0.05
Lead Points Retention-0.04
Trailing Matches-4
Non-loss rate-0.08
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches13
First Half Goals For Mean-0.25
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.51
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.66
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.18
Current Competition Matches1
Competition Season Count6
Eligible Competition Season Count3
Portability PPG Std-0.14
Portability PPG Range0.08
Portability Score5.63
Rest days-6.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.50
Normal Rest History Matches16
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.31
Long Rest History Matches-3
Long Rest Points Per Match0.21
Current Team ELO10.82
Current Opponent ELO-10.82
Current ELO Difference21.64
Expected score0.03
History Matches13
Residual Mean0.01
Overperformance0.88
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.03

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Nottingham Forest U21

W
FC Halifax Town3–4Nottingham Forest U213 Nov · away
Pick: FC Halifax Town 70% · missed
W
Luton Town U212–3Nottingham Forest U2130 Oct · away
Pick: Nottingham Forest U21 61% · hit
L
Reading U212–1Nottingham Forest U2124 Oct · away
Pick: Reading U21 42% · hit
L
Wealdstone1–0Nottingham Forest U2120 Oct · away
Pick: Wealdstone 49% · hit
W
Nottingham Forest U213–2Manchester United U2116 Oct · home
Pick: Manchester United U21 42% · missed

Leicester City U21

L
Boston United1–0Leicester City U213 Nov · away
Pick: Boston United 56% · hit
L
Leicester City U211–2Sporting CP B30 Oct · home
Pick: Sporting CP B 40% · hit
W
Leicester City U214–1Arsenal U2124 Oct · home
Pick: Leicester City U21 59% · hit
L
Tottenham Hotspur U212–0Leicester City U2118 Oct · away
Pick: Leicester City U21 46% · missed
L
Manchester United U214–1Leicester City U2131 Aug · away
Pick: Manchester United U21 56% · hit

About this match

Nottingham Forest U21 and Leicester City U21 meet in Premier League 2 Division One on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 19:00 UTC. The match is played at Loughborough University Stadium, Leicestershire. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Nottingham Forest U21 win 57.9%, draw 20.2%, Leicester City U21 win 21.9%. The pick is Nottingham Forest U21 win. Over 2.5 goals: 61.6%. Both teams to score: 55.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.