ScoreProb
Premier League 2 Division One England Regular Season 2026

Sunderland U21 vs Blackburn Rovers U21

Sunderland U21 Home · Elo 1,521
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Blackburn Rovers U21 Away · Elo 1,406
Eppleton Colliery Welfare Ground, Sunderland Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Sunderland U21 win
Sunderland U21 winPick
61.7%
Draw
16.0%
Blackburn Rovers U21 win
22.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes66.3%
No33.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.580.3%
Under 2.519.7%

How much we know

Sunderland U21 history54 matches
Blackburn Rovers U21 history46 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 10 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 19:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (61.7%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why Sunderland U21 are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Sunderland U21 are rated 115 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,521 against 1,406. On rating alone Sunderland U21 would be expected to take 66% of the points on offer.

  • Sunderland U21 score far more

    2.24 goals a game over 54 matches for Sunderland U21, against 1.41 over 46 for Blackburn Rovers U21.

  • Sunderland U21 concede fewer

    Sunderland U21 concede 1.78 a game, Blackburn Rovers U21 2.17.

  • Sunderland U21 games more often go over 2.5 goals

    80% of Sunderland U21 matches, against 67% for Blackburn Rovers U21. The model puts this match at 80% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Sunderland U21
Blackburn Rovers U21
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1521.0
ELO
1406.3
54
ELO · Matches
46
1521.0
Current Team ELO
1406.3
1406.3
Current Opponent ELO
1521.0
114.7
Current ELO Difference
-114.7
0.66
Expected score
0.34
54
History Matches
46
0.02
Residual Mean
-0.11
51.44
Overperformance
42.23
-0.09
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.09
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
0.60
2.00
Goals for per game
1.80
1.60
Goals against per game
3.00
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
0.90
2.00
Goals for per game
1.70
1.90
Goals against per game
2.40
30.0%
Win rate
30.0%
2.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.70
1.48
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.49
1.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.40
0.94
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.28
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.56
2.07
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.15
Overall performance9 signals
90
54
Matches
46
1.41
PPG
0.91
38.9%
Win rate
26.1%
24.1%
Draw rate
13.0%
37.0%
Loss rate
60.9%
94.4%
Over 1.5 rate
89.1%
79.6%
Over 2.5 rate
67.4%
57.4%
Over 3.5 rate
54.3%
2.27
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.35
Venue performance10 signals
100
27
Matches
26
1.81
PPG
0.54
55.6%
Win rate
11.5%
14.8%
Draw rate
19.2%
29.6%
Loss rate
69.2%
96.3%
Over 1.5 rate
88.5%
88.9%
Over 2.5 rate
65.4%
66.7%
Over 3.5 rate
53.8%
2.41
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.22
27
History Matches
26
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.24
Goals for per game
1.41
92.6%
Scoring rate
69.6%
77.8%
BTTS rate
54.3%
2.85
Goals for per game
1.08
100.0%
Scoring rate
61.5%
81.5%
BTTS rate
50.0%
5.00
Goals for per game
—
100.0%
Scoring rate
—
100.0%
BTTS rate
—
54
History Matches
46
2.24
Goals Mean
1.41
1.64
Goals Std
1.34
92.6%
Scored 1+ rate
69.6%
59.3%
Scored 2+ rate
41.3%
35.2%
Scored 3+ rate
17.4%
2.85
Venue Goals Mean
1.08
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.78
Goals against per game
2.17
85.2%
Conceding rate
82.6%
1.63
Goals against per game
2.42
81.5%
Conceding rate
84.6%
1.00
Goals against per game
—
100.0%
Conceding rate
—
54
History Matches
46
1.78
Conceded Mean
2.17
1.18
Conceded Std
1.55
59.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
65.2%
22.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
41.3%
1.63
Venue Conceded Mean
2.42
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
14.8%
Clean-sheet rate
17.4%
7.4%
Failed-to-score rate
30.4%
18.5%
Clean-sheet rate
15.4%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
38.5%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
—
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
—
14.8%
Clean-sheet rate
17.4%
7.4%
Failed-to-score rate
30.4%
18.5%
Clean-sheet rate
15.4%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
38.5%
14.8%
Clean-sheet rate
17.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
54
History Matches
46
0.98
Result entropy
0.84
2.27
Goal Difference Std
2.35
1.88
Stability score
16.40
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
54
Eligible Matches
45
19
Lead Matches
10
84.2%
Lead Win Rate
50.0%
0.86
Lead Points Retention
0.53
15
Trailing Matches
21
33.3%
Non-loss rate
9.5%
6.7%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
54
Halftime Coverage Matches
45
0.96
First Half Goals For Mean
0.58
0.80
First Half Goals Against Mean
1.07
1.28
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.76
0.98
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.11
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
74.04
Rest days
84.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
3
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
32
Normal Rest History Matches
24
1.50
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.13
20
Long Rest History Matches
18
1.25
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.61
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
0
3.00
PPG
—
100.0%
Win rate
—
0.0%
Draw rate
—
0.0%
Loss rate
—
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
—
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
—
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
—
1
Current Competition Matches
0
3.00
Current Competition PPG
—
4.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
—
10
Competition Season Count
7
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.31
Portability PPG Std
0.53
0.90
Portability PPG Range
1.33
62.09
Portability Score
48.42
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
54
Clean History Matches
46
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO114.7
PPG0.49
GF0.83
GA-0.40
PPG1.28
PPG0.40
PPG0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches8
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Failed-to-score rate-0.23
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate3.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.38
History Matches8
Goals Mean0.83
Goals Std0.30
Scored 1+ rate23.0%
Scored 2+ rate18.0%
Scored 3+ rate17.8%
Venue Goals Mean1.77
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std0.00
History Matches8
Conceded Mean-0.40
Conceded Std-0.37
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Conceded 2+ rate-0.06
Conceded 3+ rate-0.19
Venue Conceded Mean-0.79
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.34
History Matches8
Result entropy0.15
Goal Difference Std-0.08
Stability score-14.53
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.44
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.08
Eligible Matches9
Lead Matches9
Lead Win Rate34.2%
Lead Points Retention0.33
Trailing Matches-6
Non-loss rate23.8%
Trailing Win Rate6.7%
Halftime Coverage Matches9
First Half Goals For Mean0.39
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.27
Second Half Goals For Mean0.52
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.13
Current Competition Matches1
Competition Season Count3
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Portability PPG Std-0.23
Portability PPG Range-0.43
Portability Score13.67
Rest days-10.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Short Rest Points Per Match2.00
Normal Rest History Matches8
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.38
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match0.64
Current Team ELO114.7
Current Opponent ELO-114.7
Current ELO Difference229.3
Expected score0.32
History Matches8
Residual Mean0.13
Overperformance9.21
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.00

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Sunderland U21

L
Newcastle United U213–2Sunderland U2126 Oct · away
Pick: Sunderland U21 52% · missed
L
Sheffield Wednesday2–0Sunderland U216 Oct · away
Pick: Sheffield Wednesday 41% · hit
L
Brentford U215–1Sunderland U2131 Aug · away
Pick: Brentford U21 44% · hit
W
Sunderland U215–1Nottingham Forest U2124 Aug · home
Pick: Nottingham Forest U21 43% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Blackburn Rovers U21

W
Blackburn Rovers U212–1Southampton U2130 Oct · home
Pick: Southampton U21 65% · missed
W
Blackburn Rovers U214–2West Bromwich Albion U2126 Oct · home
Pick: West Bromwich Albion U21 45% · missed
D
Blackburn Rovers U213–3Bolton Wanderers Res.12 Oct · home
Pick: Blackburn Rovers U21 51% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Sunderland U21 and Blackburn Rovers U21 meet in Premier League 2 Division One on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 19:00 UTC. The match is played at Eppleton Colliery Welfare Ground, Sunderland. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Sunderland U21 win 61.7%, draw 16.0%, Blackburn Rovers U21 win 22.3%. The pick is Sunderland U21 win. Over 2.5 goals: 80.3%. Both teams to score: 66.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.