ScoreProb
Premier League 2 Division One England Regular Season 2026

Stoke City U21 vs Fulham U21

Stoke City U21 Home · Elo 1,440
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Fulham U21 Away · Elo 1,531
Bet365 Stadium, Stoke on Trent Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Fulham U21 win
Stoke City U21 win
26.6%
Draw
21.0%
Fulham U21 winPick
52.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes63.1%
No36.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.566.9%
Under 2.533.1%

How much we know

Stoke City U21 history42 matches
Fulham U21 history46 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 10 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 19:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (52.4%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Fulham U21 are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Fulham U21 are rated 91 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,531 against 1,440. On rating alone Fulham U21 would be expected to take 63% of the points on offer.

  • Fulham U21 score more

    1.45 goals a game over 42 matches for Stoke City U21, against 1.96 over 46 for Fulham U21.

  • Fulham U21 concede fewer

    Stoke City U21 concede 2.05 a game, Fulham U21 1.57.

  • Stoke City U21 games more often go over 2.5 goals

    71% of Stoke City U21 matches, against 61% for Fulham U21. The model puts this match at 67% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 21 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Stoke City U21
Fulham U21
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1439.9
ELO
1531.3
42
ELO · Matches
46
1439.9
Current Team ELO
1531.3
1531.3
Current Opponent ELO
1439.9
-91.47
Current ELO Difference
91.47
0.37
Expected score
0.63
42
History Matches
46
-0.08
Residual Mean
0.02
44.64
Overperformance
51.74
-0.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.06
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
2.20
0.80
Goals for per game
2.60
2.00
Goals against per game
1.40
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
1.70
1.00
Goals for per game
2.30
2.20
Goals against per game
1.90
30.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.30
0.89
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.35
2.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.90
1.89
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.04
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.99
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.80
Overall performance9 signals
90
42
Matches
46
1.07
PPG
1.54
28.6%
Win rate
43.5%
21.4%
Draw rate
23.9%
50.0%
Loss rate
32.6%
81.0%
Over 1.5 rate
87.0%
71.4%
Over 2.5 rate
60.9%
47.6%
Over 3.5 rate
45.7%
1.96
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.06
Venue performance10 signals
100
19
Matches
25
1.16
PPG
1.64
31.6%
Win rate
52.0%
21.1%
Draw rate
8.0%
47.4%
Loss rate
40.0%
78.9%
Over 1.5 rate
88.0%
63.2%
Over 2.5 rate
76.0%
36.8%
Over 3.5 rate
60.0%
1.56
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.36
19
History Matches
25
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.45
Goals for per game
1.96
81.0%
Scoring rate
80.4%
71.4%
BTTS rate
60.9%
1.47
Goals for per game
2.20
84.2%
Scoring rate
84.0%
78.9%
BTTS rate
64.0%
2.00
Goals for per game
4.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
42
History Matches
46
1.45
Goals Mean
1.96
1.18
Goals Std
1.60
81.0%
Scored 1+ rate
80.4%
40.5%
Scored 2+ rate
54.3%
14.3%
Scored 3+ rate
32.6%
1.47
Venue Goals Mean
2.20
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
2.05
Goals against per game
1.57
88.1%
Conceding rate
78.3%
1.79
Goals against per game
1.84
89.5%
Conceding rate
80.0%
3.00
Goals against per game
3.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
42
History Matches
46
2.05
Conceded Mean
1.57
1.51
Conceded Std
1.23
57.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
47.8%
31.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
21.7%
1.79
Venue Conceded Mean
1.84
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
11.9%
Clean-sheet rate
21.7%
19.0%
Failed-to-score rate
19.6%
10.5%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
15.8%
Failed-to-score rate
16.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
11.9%
Clean-sheet rate
21.7%
19.0%
Failed-to-score rate
19.6%
10.5%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
15.8%
Failed-to-score rate
16.0%
11.9%
Clean-sheet rate
21.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
42
History Matches
46
0.94
Result entropy
0.97
1.96
Goal Difference Std
2.06
5.83
Stability score
2.63
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
41
Eligible Matches
46
6
Lead Matches
15
33.3%
Lead Win Rate
80.0%
0.50
Lead Points Retention
0.84
17
Trailing Matches
17
23.5%
Non-loss rate
47.1%
11.8%
Trailing Win Rate
17.6%
Goal timing5 signals
50
41
Halftime Coverage Matches
46
0.61
First Half Goals For Mean
0.91
0.95
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.80
0.85
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.04
1.07
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.76
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
4
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.50
19
Normal Rest History Matches
22
0.84
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.50
20
Long Rest History Matches
19
1.30
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.42
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
0.00
PPG
3.00
0.0%
Win rate
100.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
100.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
0.00
Current Competition PPG
3.00
-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.00
8
Competition Season Count
10
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.16
Portability PPG Std
0.66
0.39
Portability PPG Range
1.86
75.45
Portability Score
43.27
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
42
Clean History Matches
46
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-91.47
PPG-0.47
GF-0.50
GA0.48
PPG-3.00
PPG-0.48
PPG-1.40
PPG-0.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate-0.10
Failed-to-score rate-0.01
History Matches-6
Clean-sheet rate-0.09
Failed-to-score rate0.00
History Matches-4
Goals Mean-0.50
Goals Std-0.42
Scored 1+ rate0.5%
Scored 2+ rate-0.14
Scored 3+ rate-0.18
Venue Goals Mean-0.73
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.30
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.45
History Matches-4
Conceded Mean0.48
Conceded Std0.28
Clean-sheet rate-0.10
Conceded 2+ rate9.3%
Conceded 3+ rate9.2%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.05
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.84
History Matches-4
Result entropy-0.03
Goal Difference Std-0.09
Stability score3.19
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.12
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.19
Eligible Matches-5
Lead Matches-9
Lead Win Rate-0.47
Lead Points Retention-0.34
Trailing Matches0
Non-loss rate-0.24
Trailing Win Rate-0.06
Halftime Coverage Matches-5
First Half Goals For Mean-0.30
First Half Goals Against Mean0.15
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.19
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.31
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-3.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-2.00
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Portability PPG Std-0.49
Portability PPG Range-1.46
Portability Score32.18
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Short Rest Points Per Match-2.50
Normal Rest History Matches-3
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.66
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.12
Current Team ELO-91.47
Current Opponent ELO91.47
Current ELO Difference-182.9
Expected score-0.26
History Matches-4
Residual Mean-0.10
Overperformance-7.10
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.11

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Stoke City U21

L
Gateshead3–1Stoke City U213 Nov · away
Pick: Gateshead 71% · hit
D
Leeds United U212–2Stoke City U2131 Oct · away
Pick: Leeds United U21 56% · missed
L
Manchester City U214–3Stoke City U2123 Oct · away
Pick: Manchester City U21 75% · hit
L
Stoke City U210–2Nordsjælland U2120 Oct · home
Pick: Stoke City U21 59% · missed
L
Stoke City U211–2Chelsea U2116 Oct · home
Pick: Chelsea U21 41% · hit

Fulham U21

L
Worthing2–1Fulham U213 Nov · away
Pick: Worthing 60% · hit
L
Fulham U212–4Brighton U2123 Oct · home
Pick: Fulham U21 49% · missed
W
Brentford U211–2Fulham U2118 Oct · away
Pick: Brentford U21 54% · missed
L
Walsall3–2Fulham U2113 Oct · away
Pick: Walsall 58% · hit
W
Newcastle United U210–4Fulham U2131 Aug · away
Pick: Fulham U21 48% · hit

About this match

Stoke City U21 and Fulham U21 meet in Premier League 2 Division One on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 19:00 UTC. The match is played at Bet365 Stadium, Stoke on Trent. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Stoke City U21 win 26.6%, draw 21.0%, Fulham U21 win 52.4%. The pick is Fulham U21 win. Over 2.5 goals: 66.9%. Both teams to score: 63.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.