Ntugasaze vs Entebbe UPPC
Ntugasaze
Thu 5 Nov
UTC
Not started
Entebbe UPPC
Match result probability Model pick: Entebbe UPPC win
Ntugasaze win
32.5%
Draw
30.2%
Entebbe UPPC winPick
37.3%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes45.5%
No54.5%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.542.1%
Under 2.557.9%
How much we know
Ntugasaze history0 matches
Entebbe UPPC history30 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Entebbe UPPC
Over / under 2.5: ours Under
Both teams to score: ours No
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead30 Oct · 08:38 UTC
- Re-published 13 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 2 Nov · 19:23 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 12:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre5 Nov · 13:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (37.3%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.
Why Entebbe UPPC are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Entebbe UPPC are rated 53 Elo points higher
Elo 1,553 against 1,500. On rating alone Entebbe UPPC would be expected to take 58% of the points on offer.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Ntugasaze
Entebbe UPPC
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1500.0
ELO
1552.9
0
ELO · Matches
30
1500.0
Current Team ELO
1552.9
1552.9
Current Opponent ELO
1500.0
-52.95
Current ELO Difference
52.95
0.42
Expected score
0.58
0
History Matches
30
—
Residual Mean
0.09
—
Overperformance
55.27
—
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.00
Recent form16 signals 160
0
Matches
5
—
PPG
2.20
—
Goals for per game
1.80
—
Goals against per game
0.20
—
Win rate
60.0%
0
Matches
10
—
PPG
1.50
—
Goals for per game
1.20
—
Goals against per game
0.90
—
Win rate
40.0%
—
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
—
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.25
—
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.90
—
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.94
—
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
—
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.95
Overall performance9 signals 90
0
Matches
30
—
PPG
1.70
—
Win rate
46.7%
—
Draw rate
30.0%
—
Loss rate
23.3%
—
Over 1.5 rate
53.3%
—
Over 2.5 rate
16.7%
—
Over 3.5 rate
6.7%
—
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.47
Venue performance10 signals 100
0
Matches
15
—
PPG
1.67
—
Win rate
40.0%
—
Draw rate
46.7%
—
Loss rate
13.3%
—
Over 1.5 rate
60.0%
—
Over 2.5 rate
20.0%
—
Over 3.5 rate
6.7%
—
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.28
0
History Matches
15
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
—
Goals for per game
1.00
—
Scoring rate
60.0%
—
BTTS rate
23.3%
—
Goals for per game
1.00
—
Scoring rate
66.7%
—
BTTS rate
40.0%
0
History Matches
30
—
Goals Mean
1.00
—
Goals Std
1.10
—
Scored 1+ rate
60.0%
—
Scored 2+ rate
26.7%
—
Scored 3+ rate
6.7%
—
Venue Goals Mean
1.00
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
—
Goals against per game
0.67
—
Conceding rate
46.7%
—
Goals against per game
0.80
—
Conceding rate
53.3%
0
History Matches
30
—
Conceded Mean
0.67
—
Conceded Std
0.83
—
Conceded 2+ rate
16.7%
—
Conceded 3+ rate
3.3%
—
Venue Conceded Mean
0.80
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
—
Clean-sheet rate
53.3%
—
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
—
Clean-sheet rate
46.7%
—
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
—
Clean-sheet rate
53.3%
—
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
—
Clean-sheet rate
46.7%
—
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
—
Clean-sheet rate
53.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
0
History Matches
30
—
Result entropy
0.96
—
Goal Difference Std
1.47
—
Stability score
3.84
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
0
Eligible Matches
30
0
Lead Matches
10
—
Lead Win Rate
80.0%
—
Lead Points Retention
0.87
0
Trailing Matches
5
—
Non-loss rate
20.0%
—
Trailing Win Rate
20.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
0
Halftime Coverage Matches
30
—
First Half Goals For Mean
0.43
—
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.27
—
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.57
—
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.40
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
—
Rest days
166.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
2
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
0
Normal Rest History Matches
16
—
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.50
0
Long Rest History Matches
11
—
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.91
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
0
Competition Season Count
1
0
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
0
Clean History Matches
30
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGGFGAPPGPPGPPGPPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreClean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rateClean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rateGoals MeanGoals StdScored 1+ rateScored 2+ rateScored 3+ rateVenue Goals MeanRecent 10 Goals MeanRecent 10 Goals StdConceded MeanConceded StdClean-sheet rateConceded 2+ rateConceded 3+ rateVenue Conceded MeanRecent 10 Conceded MeanRecent 10 Conceded StdResult entropyGoal Difference StdStability scoreRecent 10 Result EntropyRecent 10 Goal Difference StdLead Win RateLead Points RetentionNon-loss rateTrailing Win RateFirst Half Goals For MeanFirst Half Goals Against MeanSecond Half Goals For MeanSecond Half Goals Against MeanCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreRest daysShort Rest Points Per MatchNormal Rest Points Per MatchLong Rest Points Per MatchResidual MeanOverperformanceRecent 10 Residual Mean
ELO-52.95
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-30
History Matches-15
History Matches-30
History Matches-30
History Matches-30
Eligible Matches-30
Lead Matches-10
Trailing Matches-5
Halftime Coverage Matches-30
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest History Matches-16
Long Rest History Matches-11
Current Team ELO-52.95
Current Opponent ELO52.95
Current ELO Difference-105.9
Expected score-0.15
History Matches-30
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Ntugasaze
D
Ntugasaze1–1Express1 Nov · home
Pick: Ntugasaze 38% · missed L
NEC5–1Ntugasaze27 Oct · away
Pick: NEC 66% · hit L
Ntugasaze0–2KCCA13 Oct · home
Pick: Draw 35% · missed W
Ntugasaze1–0Mbarara City7 Oct · home
Pick: Draw 37% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
Entebbe UPPC
D
BUL1–1Entebbe UPPC31 Oct · away
Pick: BUL 48% · missed D
Entebbe UPPC0–0Maroons28 Oct · home
Pick: Draw 35% · hit W
Kigezi HomeBoyz0–1Entebbe UPPC22 Oct · away
Pick: Entebbe UPPC 37% · hit D
URA0–0Entebbe UPPC15 Oct · away
Pick: URA 52% · missed L
Entebbe UPPC0–1Lugazi9 Sep · home
Pick: Entebbe UPPC 42% · missed About this match
Ntugasaze and Entebbe UPPC meet in Premier League on Thursday 5 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. The match is played at Kiira Road Police Arena. ScoreProb published its prediction on 30 Oct, 08:38 UTC: Ntugasaze win 32.5%, draw 30.2%, Entebbe UPPC win 37.3%. The pick is Entebbe UPPC win. Over 2.5 goals: 42.1%. Both teams to score: 45.5%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.