ScoreProb
Premier League Uganda Round 10 2026

Vipers vs Lugazi

Vipers Home · Elo 1,637
Thu 5 Nov
UTC
Not started
Lugazi Away · Elo 1,419
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 30 Oct, 08:38 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Vipers win
Vipers winPick
68.6%
Draw
21.1%
Lugazi win
10.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes41.6%
No58.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.550.5%
Under 2.549.5%

How much we know

Vipers history73 matches
Lugazi history45 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 8 h ahead
    30 Oct · 08:38 UTC
  2. Re-published 13 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 19:23 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    5 Nov · 17:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (68.6%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why Vipers are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Vipers are rated 218 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,637 against 1,419. On rating alone Vipers would be expected to take 78% of the points on offer.

  • Vipers score far more

    1.52 goals a game over 73 matches for Vipers, against 0.67 over 45 for Lugazi.

  • Vipers concede fewer

    Vipers concede 0.92 a game, Lugazi 1.24.

  • Vipers games more often go over 2.5 goals

    47% of Vipers matches, against 36% for Lugazi. The model puts this match at 51% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 30 Jul 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Vipers
Lugazi
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1637.1
ELO
1418.8
73
ELO · Matches
45
1637.1
Current Team ELO
1418.8
1418.8
Current Opponent ELO
1637.1
218.3
Current ELO Difference
-218.3
0.78
Expected score
0.22
73
History Matches
45
0.09
Residual Mean
-0.09
57.33
Overperformance
43.97
0.12
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.10
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.40
PPG
1.00
2.00
Goals for per game
0.40
0.40
Goals against per game
0.40
80.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
2.10
PPG
0.70
1.70
Goals for per game
0.40
0.40
Goals against per game
0.90
60.0%
Win rate
10.0%
1.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.40
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.66
0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.90
0.66
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.94
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.42
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.20
Overall performance9 signals
90
73
Matches
45
1.82
PPG
0.93
52.1%
Win rate
22.2%
26.0%
Draw rate
26.7%
21.9%
Loss rate
51.1%
72.6%
Over 1.5 rate
48.9%
46.6%
Over 2.5 rate
35.6%
19.2%
Over 3.5 rate
17.8%
1.70
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.67
Venue performance10 signals
100
37
Matches
22
2.08
PPG
0.59
59.5%
Win rate
9.1%
29.7%
Draw rate
31.8%
10.8%
Loss rate
59.1%
73.0%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
43.2%
Over 2.5 rate
36.4%
18.9%
Over 3.5 rate
18.2%
1.71
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.77
37
History Matches
22
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.52
Goals for per game
0.67
84.9%
Scoring rate
37.8%
49.3%
BTTS rate
26.7%
1.73
Goals for per game
0.32
86.5%
Scoring rate
18.2%
45.9%
BTTS rate
13.6%
73
History Matches
45
1.52
Goals Mean
0.67
1.17
Goals Std
1.10
84.9%
Scored 1+ rate
37.8%
41.1%
Scored 2+ rate
15.6%
16.4%
Scored 3+ rate
8.9%
1.73
Venue Goals Mean
0.32
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
0.92
Goals against per game
1.24
57.5%
Conceding rate
68.9%
0.68
Goals against per game
1.45
51.4%
Conceding rate
63.6%
73
History Matches
45
0.92
Conceded Mean
1.24
1.04
Conceded Std
1.21
20.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
33.3%
11.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
13.3%
0.68
Venue Conceded Mean
1.45
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
42.5%
Clean-sheet rate
31.1%
15.1%
Failed-to-score rate
62.2%
48.6%
Clean-sheet rate
36.4%
13.5%
Failed-to-score rate
81.8%
42.5%
Clean-sheet rate
31.1%
15.1%
Failed-to-score rate
62.2%
48.6%
Clean-sheet rate
36.4%
13.5%
Failed-to-score rate
81.8%
42.5%
Clean-sheet rate
31.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
73
History Matches
45
0.93
Result entropy
0.94
1.70
Goal Difference Std
1.67
6.89
Stability score
6.27
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
73
Eligible Matches
45
26
Lead Matches
9
80.8%
Lead Win Rate
77.8%
0.86
Lead Points Retention
0.81
14
Trailing Matches
14
42.9%
Non-loss rate
14.3%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
7.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
73
Halftime Coverage Matches
45
0.68
First Half Goals For Mean
0.29
0.34
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.51
0.84
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.38
0.58
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.73
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
98.00
Rest days
166.2
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
16
Short Rest History Matches
4
1.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.75
34
Normal Rest History Matches
23
2.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.91
22
Long Rest History Matches
17
1.73
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.88
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
5
Competition Season Count
2
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.56
Portability PPG Std
0.15
1.52
Portability PPG Range
0.30
47.38
Portability Score
76.92
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
73
Clean History Matches
45
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO218.3
PPG0.89
GF0.85
GA-0.33
PPG1.49
PPG1.40
PPG1.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches28
Clean-sheet rate11.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.47
History Matches15
Clean-sheet rate12.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.68
History Matches28
Goals Mean0.85
Goals Std0.08
Scored 1+ rate47.2%
Scored 2+ rate25.5%
Scored 3+ rate7.5%
Venue Goals Mean1.41
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.30
Recent 10 Goals Std0.34
History Matches28
Conceded Mean-0.33
Conceded Std-0.17
Clean-sheet rate11.4%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.13
Conceded 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Conceded Mean-0.78
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.28
History Matches28
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std0.04
Stability score0.63
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.04
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.21
Eligible Matches28
Lead Matches17
Lead Win Rate3.0%
Lead Points Retention0.04
Trailing Matches0
Non-loss rate28.6%
Trailing Win Rate-0.07
Halftime Coverage Matches28
First Half Goals For Mean0.40
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.17
Second Half Goals For Mean0.46
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.16
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count3
Eligible Competition Season Count3
Portability PPG Std0.41
Portability PPG Range1.22
Portability Score-29.55
Rest days-68.21
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches12
Short Rest Points Per Match0.75
Normal Rest History Matches11
Normal Rest Points Per Match1.09
Long Rest History Matches5
Long Rest Points Per Match0.84
Current Team ELO218.3
Current Opponent ELO-218.3
Current ELO Difference436.6
Expected score0.56
History Matches28
Residual Mean0.18
Overperformance13.36
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.22

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Vipers

L
URA1–0Vipers31 Oct · away
Pick: Vipers 49% · missed
L
Mbarara City1–0Vipers28 Oct · away
Pick: Vipers 56% · missed
D
Vipers0–0Police23 Oct · home
Pick: Vipers 64% · missed
W
Kataka0–5Vipers15 Oct · away
Pick: Vipers 38% · hit
W
Blacks Power0–4Vipers8 Oct · away
Pick: Vipers 38% · hit

Lugazi

L
Lugazi1–2SC Villa31 Oct · home
Pick: SC Villa 37% · hit
D
Lugazi0–0Express21 Oct · home
Pick: Lugazi 38% · missed
D
Lugazi0–0BUL13 Oct · home
Pick: BUL 37% · missed
L
Maroons3–0Lugazi7 Oct · away
Pick: Maroons 40% · hit
W
Entebbe UPPC0–1Lugazi9 Sep · away
Pick: Entebbe UPPC 42% · missed

About this match

Vipers and Lugazi meet in Premier League on Thursday 5 November 2026, kickoff 17:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 30 Oct, 08:38 UTC: Vipers win 68.6%, draw 21.1%, Lugazi win 10.3%. The pick is Vipers win. Over 2.5 goals: 50.5%. Both teams to score: 41.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.