ScoreProb
Druha Liga Ukraine Round 14 2026

Nyva Ternopil II vs Nyva Vinnytsya

Nyva Ternopil II Home · Elo 1,505
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Nyva Vinnytsya Away · Elo 1,492
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Nyva Vinnytsya win
Nyva Ternopil II win
29.6%
Draw
23.2%
Nyva Vinnytsya winPick
47.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes51.9%
No48.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.553.0%
Under 2.547.0%

How much we know

Nyva Ternopil II history37 matches
Nyva Vinnytsya history46 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 2 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 11:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (47.2%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Nyva Vinnytsya are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,505 against 1,492. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Nyva Vinnytsya score more

    1.08 goals a game over 37 matches for Nyva Ternopil II, against 1.46 over 46 for Nyva Vinnytsya.

  • Nyva Vinnytsya concede fewer

    Nyva Ternopil II concede 1.59 a game, Nyva Vinnytsya 1.28.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    51% of Nyva Ternopil II matches, against 54% for Nyva Vinnytsya. The model puts this match at 53% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Nyva Ternopil II
Nyva Vinnytsya
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1505.2
ELO
1492.0
37
ELO · Matches
46
1505.2
Current Team ELO
1492.0
1492.0
Current Opponent ELO
1505.2
13.14
Current ELO Difference
-13.14
0.52
Expected score
0.48
37
History Matches
46
0.00
Residual Mean
-0.01
50.26
Overperformance
49.44
-0.19
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.26
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
1.00
1.00
Goals for per game
1.60
2.80
Goals against per game
1.80
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
0.90
PPG
0.70
0.90
Goals for per game
1.10
3.00
Goals against per game
1.90
30.0%
Win rate
10.0%
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.10
1.14
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.70
3.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.90
1.67
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.83
0.56
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
2.47
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.17
Overall performance9 signals
90
37
Matches
46
1.54
PPG
1.35
48.6%
Win rate
39.1%
8.1%
Draw rate
17.4%
43.2%
Loss rate
43.5%
73.0%
Over 1.5 rate
80.4%
51.4%
Over 2.5 rate
54.3%
27.0%
Over 3.5 rate
21.7%
2.21
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.18
Venue performance10 signals
100
18
Matches
23
1.56
PPG
1.30
50.0%
Win rate
39.1%
5.6%
Draw rate
13.0%
44.4%
Loss rate
47.8%
72.2%
Over 1.5 rate
82.6%
44.4%
Over 2.5 rate
52.2%
27.8%
Over 3.5 rate
17.4%
2.31
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.15
18
History Matches
23
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.08
Goals for per game
1.46
67.6%
Scoring rate
73.9%
35.1%
BTTS rate
47.8%
1.11
Goals for per game
1.43
66.7%
Scoring rate
73.9%
27.8%
BTTS rate
47.8%
1.33
Goals for per game
1.67
66.7%
Scoring rate
100.0%
33.3%
BTTS rate
100.0%
37
History Matches
46
1.08
Goals Mean
1.46
1.00
Goals Std
1.43
67.6%
Scored 1+ rate
73.9%
29.7%
Scored 2+ rate
39.1%
8.1%
Scored 3+ rate
17.4%
1.11
Venue Goals Mean
1.43
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.59
Goals against per game
1.28
64.9%
Conceding rate
71.7%
1.44
Goals against per game
1.30
61.1%
Conceding rate
73.9%
2.00
Goals against per game
1.67
66.7%
Conceding rate
100.0%
37
History Matches
46
1.59
Conceded Mean
1.28
1.60
Conceded Std
1.19
43.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
39.1%
29.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
8.7%
1.44
Venue Conceded Mean
1.30
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
35.1%
Clean-sheet rate
28.3%
32.4%
Failed-to-score rate
26.1%
38.9%
Clean-sheet rate
26.1%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
26.1%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
35.1%
Clean-sheet rate
28.3%
32.4%
Failed-to-score rate
26.1%
38.9%
Clean-sheet rate
26.1%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
26.1%
35.1%
Clean-sheet rate
28.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
37
History Matches
46
0.83
Result entropy
0.94
2.21
Goal Difference Std
2.18
16.55
Stability score
5.93
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
35
Eligible Matches
41
12
Lead Matches
13
91.7%
Lead Win Rate
84.6%
0.92
Lead Points Retention
0.90
15
Trailing Matches
15
6.7%
Non-loss rate
6.7%
6.7%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
35
Halftime Coverage Matches
41
0.46
First Half Goals For Mean
0.66
0.71
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.73
0.60
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.78
0.91
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.56
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
85.08
Rest days
77.94
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
1
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
18
Normal Rest History Matches
30
1.78
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.37
18
Long Rest History Matches
14
1.22
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.29
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
2.00
PPG
1.33
66.7%
Win rate
33.3%
0.0%
Draw rate
33.3%
33.3%
Loss rate
33.3%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
66.7%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
2.36
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.82
3
Current Competition Matches
3
2.00
Current Competition PPG
1.33
-0.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
3
Competition Season Count
7
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.34
Portability PPG Std
0.56
0.83
Portability PPG Range
1.66
59.51
Portability Score
47.39
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
37
Clean History Matches
46
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO13.14
PPG0.19
GF-0.38
GA0.31
PPG0.67
PPG0.25
PPG0.20
PPG0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-9
Clean-sheet rate6.9%
Failed-to-score rate6.3%
History Matches-5
Clean-sheet rate12.8%
Failed-to-score rate7.2%
History Matches-9
Goals Mean-0.38
Goals Std-0.43
Scored 1+ rate-0.06
Scored 2+ rate-0.09
Scored 3+ rate-0.09
Venue Goals Mean-0.32
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std0.44
History Matches-9
Conceded Mean0.31
Conceded Std0.41
Clean-sheet rate6.9%
Conceded 2+ rate4.1%
Conceded 3+ rate21.0%
Venue Conceded Mean0.14
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.84
History Matches-9
Result entropy-0.11
Goal Difference Std0.03
Stability score10.63
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.30
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.30
Eligible Matches-6
Lead Matches-1
Lead Win Rate7.1%
Lead Points Retention0.02
Trailing Matches0
Non-loss rate0.0%
Trailing Win Rate6.7%
Halftime Coverage Matches-6
First Half Goals For Mean-0.20
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.02
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.18
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.35
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.67
Competition Season Count-4
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Portability PPG Std-0.21
Portability PPG Range-0.82
Portability Score12.11
Rest days7.15
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest History Matches-12
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.41
Long Rest History Matches4
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.06
Current Team ELO13.14
Current Opponent ELO-13.14
Current ELO Difference26.27
Expected score0.04
History Matches-9
Residual Mean0.01
Overperformance0.83
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.07

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Nyva Ternopil II

W
Skala 1911 Stryi2–5Nyva Ternopil II31 Oct · away
Pick: Skala 1911 Stryi 43% · missed
D
Dnister Zalishchyky1–1Nyva Ternopil II17 Oct · away
Pick: Dnister Zalishchyky 50% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Nyva Vinnytsya

D
Vilkhivtsi1–1Nyva Vinnytsya25 Oct · away
Pick: Nyva Vinnytsya 44% · missed
W
Nyva Vinnytsya2–1Podillya Khmelnytskyi17 Oct · home
Pick: Nyva Vinnytsya 45% · hit
D
Bratslav Vinnytsia0–0Nyva Vinnytsya29 Aug · away
Pick: Bratslav Vinnytsia 49% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Nyva Ternopil II and Nyva Vinnytsya meet in Druha Liga on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 11:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Nyva Ternopil II win 29.6%, draw 23.2%, Nyva Vinnytsya win 47.2%. The pick is Nyva Vinnytsya win. Over 2.5 goals: 53.0%. Both teams to score: 51.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.