ScoreProb
Druha Liga Ukraine Round 14 2026

Lozova vs Karbon Cherkasy

Lozova Home · Elo 1,477
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Karbon Cherkasy Away · Elo 1,510
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Karbon Cherkasy win
Lozova win
25.3%
Draw
19.2%
Karbon Cherkasy winPick
55.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes45.7%
No54.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.556.4%
Under 2.543.6%

How much we know

Lozova history3 matches
Karbon Cherkasy history3 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 1 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 10:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (55.5%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Karbon Cherkasy are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Karbon Cherkasy are rated 33 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,510 against 1,477. On rating alone Karbon Cherkasy would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • Karbon Cherkasy score far more

    0.67 goals a game over 3 matches for Lozova, against 2.00 over 3 for Karbon Cherkasy.

  • Karbon Cherkasy concede fewer

    Lozova concede 3.00 a game, Karbon Cherkasy 1.33.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    33% of Lozova matches, against 33% for Karbon Cherkasy. The model puts this match at 56% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Lozova
Karbon Cherkasy
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1477.4
ELO
1510.3
3
ELO · Matches
3
1477.4
Current Team ELO
1510.3
1510.3
Current Opponent ELO
1477.4
-32.94
Current ELO Difference
32.94
0.45
Expected score
0.55
3
History Matches
3
-0.35
Residual Mean
0.14
45.48
Overperformance
51.80
-0.35
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.14
Recent form16 signals
160
3
Matches
3
0.33
PPG
2.00
0.67
Goals for per game
2.00
3.00
Goals against per game
1.33
0.0%
Win rate
66.7%
3
Matches
3
0.33
PPG
2.00
0.67
Goals for per game
2.00
3.00
Goals against per game
1.33
0.0%
Win rate
66.7%
0.67
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.00
0.47
Recent 10 Goals Std
2.16
3.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.33
2.16
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.25
0.58
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.58
2.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.25
Overall performance9 signals
90
3
Matches
3
0.33
PPG
2.00
0.0%
Win rate
66.7%
33.3%
Draw rate
0.0%
66.7%
Loss rate
33.3%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
33.3%
33.3%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
2.05
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.25
Venue performance10 signals
100
2
Matches
2
0.50
PPG
3.00
0.0%
Win rate
100.0%
50.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
2.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.50
2
History Matches
2
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
0.67
Goals for per game
2.00
66.7%
Scoring rate
66.7%
66.7%
BTTS rate
33.3%
1.00
Goals for per game
3.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
0.50
Goals for per game
2.50
50.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
3
History Matches
3
0.67
Goals Mean
2.00
0.47
Goals Std
2.16
66.7%
Scored 1+ rate
66.7%
0.0%
Scored 2+ rate
33.3%
0.0%
Scored 3+ rate
33.3%
1.00
Venue Goals Mean
3.00
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
3.00
Goals against per game
1.33
100.0%
Conceding rate
66.7%
3.50
Goals against per game
1.50
100.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
1.50
Goals against per game
2.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
3
History Matches
3
3.00
Conceded Mean
1.33
2.16
Conceded Std
1.25
66.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
33.3%
33.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
33.3%
3.50
Venue Conceded Mean
1.50
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
3
History Matches
3
0.58
Result entropy
0.58
2.05
Goal Difference Std
1.25
42.06
Stability score
42.06
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
3
Eligible Matches
3
0
Lead Matches
1
—
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
—
Lead Points Retention
1.00
3
Trailing Matches
1
33.3%
Non-loss rate
100.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
100.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
3
Halftime Coverage Matches
3
0.33
First Half Goals For Mean
1.00
1.67
First Half Goals Against Mean
1.00
0.33
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.00
1.33
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.33
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
78.06
Rest days
77.02
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
1
Normal Rest History Matches
0
0.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
—
1
Long Rest History Matches
2
1.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
3.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Portability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
2
Matches
2
0.50
PPG
1.50
0.0%
Win rate
50.0%
50.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
1.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.50
2
Current Competition Matches
2
0.50
Current Competition PPG
1.50
-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.50
2
Competition Season Count
2
0
Eligible Competition Season Count
0
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
3
Clean History Matches
3
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreLead Win RateLead Points RetentionPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per MatchNormal Rest Points Per Match
ELO-32.94
PPG-1.67
GF-1.33
GA1.67
PPG-1.00
PPG-2.50
PPG-1.67
PPG-1.67
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate-0.33
Failed-to-score rate0.0%
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate-0.50
Failed-to-score rate0.0%
History Matches0
Goals Mean-1.33
Goals Std-1.69
Scored 1+ rate0.0%
Scored 2+ rate-0.33
Scored 3+ rate-0.33
Venue Goals Mean-2.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.33
Recent 10 Goals Std-1.69
History Matches0
Conceded Mean1.67
Conceded Std0.91
Clean-sheet rate-0.33
Conceded 2+ rate33.3%
Conceded 3+ rate0.0%
Venue Conceded Mean2.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.67
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.91
History Matches0
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std0.81
Stability score0.00
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.81
Eligible Matches0
Lead Matches-1
Trailing Matches2
Non-loss rate-0.67
Trailing Win Rate-1.00
Halftime Coverage Matches0
First Half Goals For Mean-0.67
First Half Goals Against Mean0.67
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.67
Second Half Goals Against Mean1.00
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.50
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Rest days1.04
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches1
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match-2.00
Current Team ELO-32.94
Current Opponent ELO32.94
Current ELO Difference-65.88
Expected score-0.09
History Matches0
Residual Mean-0.48
Overperformance-6.32
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.48

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Lozova

W
Atlet0–3Lozova1 Nov · away
Pick: Atlet 71% · missed
L
Oleksandria II3–1Lozova25 Oct · away
Pick: Oleksandria II 70% · hit
W
Lozova1–0Trostianets17 Oct · home
Pick: Trostianets 58% · missed
L
Lozova2–3Atlet29 Aug · home
Pick: Atlet 53% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Karbon Cherkasy

W
Karbon Cherkasy2–1Trostianets30 Oct · home
Pick: Karbon Cherkasy 35% · hit
W
Penuel1–8Karbon Cherkasy12 Oct · away
Pick: Karbon Cherkasy 50% · hit
L
Karbon Cherkasy0–3Epitsentr Dunayivtsi9 Sep · home
Pick: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 39% · hit
D
Trostianets0–0Karbon Cherkasy29 Aug · away
Pick: Trostianets 52% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Lozova and Karbon Cherkasy meet in Druha Liga on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 10:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Lozova win 25.3%, draw 19.2%, Karbon Cherkasy win 55.5%. The pick is Karbon Cherkasy win. Over 2.5 goals: 56.4%. Both teams to score: 45.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.