ScoreProb
U19 League Ukraine Round 13 2026

Oleksandria U19 vs Zhytomyr U19

Oleksandria U19 Home · Elo 1,436
Wed 4 Nov
UTC
Not started
Zhytomyr U19 Away · Elo 1,546
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 30 Oct, 08:13 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Oleksandria U19 win
Oleksandria U19 winPick
40.5%
Draw
23.4%
Zhytomyr U19 win
36.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes54.7%
No45.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.559.8%
Under 2.540.2%

How much we know

Oleksandria U19 history46 matches
Zhytomyr U19 history45 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 1 h ahead
    30 Oct · 08:13 UTC
  2. Re-published 12 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 18:58 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    4 Nov · 10:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (40.5%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Oleksandria U19 are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Zhytomyr U19 are rated 110 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,546 against 1,436. On rating alone Zhytomyr U19 would be expected to take 65% of the points on offer.

  • Zhytomyr U19 score more

    1.20 goals a game over 46 matches for Oleksandria U19, against 1.44 over 45 for Zhytomyr U19.

  • Zhytomyr U19 concede fewer

    Oleksandria U19 concede 2.13 a game, Zhytomyr U19 1.00.

  • Oleksandria U19 games more often go over 2.5 goals

    65% of Oleksandria U19 matches, against 42% for Zhytomyr U19. The model puts this match at 60% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 20 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Oleksandria U19
Zhytomyr U19
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1435.7
ELO
1545.6
46
ELO · Matches
45
1435.7
Current Team ELO
1545.6
1545.6
Current Opponent ELO
1435.7
-110.0
Current ELO Difference
110.0
0.35
Expected score
0.65
46
History Matches
45
-0.08
Residual Mean
0.05
44.49
Overperformance
53.57
0.15
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.12
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
1.20
2.00
Goals for per game
1.00
3.00
Goals against per game
1.60
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.50
PPG
1.30
1.50
Goals for per game
1.10
2.10
Goals against per game
1.40
50.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.10
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.94
2.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
2.12
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.92
0.63
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
2.58
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.62
Overall performance9 signals
90
46
Matches
45
0.89
PPG
1.64
26.1%
Win rate
44.4%
10.9%
Draw rate
31.1%
63.0%
Loss rate
24.4%
78.3%
Over 1.5 rate
71.1%
65.2%
Over 2.5 rate
42.2%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
26.7%
2.30
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.77
Venue performance10 signals
100
20
Matches
22
0.95
PPG
1.82
25.0%
Win rate
50.0%
20.0%
Draw rate
31.8%
55.0%
Loss rate
18.2%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
63.6%
60.0%
Over 2.5 rate
45.5%
45.0%
Over 3.5 rate
27.3%
1.91
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.68
20
History Matches
22
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.20
Goals for per game
1.44
60.9%
Scoring rate
75.6%
50.0%
BTTS rate
44.4%
1.30
Goals for per game
1.59
55.0%
Scoring rate
72.7%
45.0%
BTTS rate
40.9%
2.00
Goals for per game
0.67
66.7%
Scoring rate
66.7%
66.7%
BTTS rate
33.3%
46
History Matches
45
1.20
Goals Mean
1.44
1.26
Goals Std
1.34
60.9%
Scored 1+ rate
75.6%
32.6%
Scored 2+ rate
35.6%
19.6%
Scored 3+ rate
20.0%
1.30
Venue Goals Mean
1.59
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
2.13
Goals against per game
1.00
89.1%
Conceding rate
57.8%
1.80
Goals against per game
0.86
90.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
1.67
Goals against per game
1.33
100.0%
Conceding rate
66.7%
46
History Matches
45
2.13
Conceded Mean
1.00
1.65
Conceded Std
1.01
56.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
33.3%
32.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
8.9%
1.80
Venue Conceded Mean
0.86
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
10.9%
Clean-sheet rate
42.2%
39.1%
Failed-to-score rate
24.4%
10.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
45.0%
Failed-to-score rate
27.3%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
10.9%
Clean-sheet rate
42.2%
39.1%
Failed-to-score rate
24.4%
10.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
45.0%
Failed-to-score rate
27.3%
10.9%
Clean-sheet rate
42.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
46
History Matches
45
0.80
Result entropy
0.97
2.30
Goal Difference Std
1.77
19.66
Stability score
2.78
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
46
Eligible Matches
44
8
Lead Matches
13
75.0%
Lead Win Rate
76.9%
0.79
Lead Points Retention
0.82
19
Trailing Matches
10
10.5%
Non-loss rate
10.0%
5.3%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
46
Halftime Coverage Matches
44
0.52
First Half Goals For Mean
0.80
1.07
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.57
0.67
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.68
1.07
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.45
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
76.96
Rest days
76.96
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
27
Normal Rest History Matches
24
0.89
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.63
18
Long Rest History Matches
20
0.89
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.70
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
2.00
PPG
1.00
66.7%
Win rate
33.3%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
33.3%
Loss rate
66.7%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
66.7%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.70
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.25
3
Current Competition Matches
3
2.00
Current Competition PPG
1.00
0.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.67
3
Competition Season Count
3
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.58
Portability PPG Std
0.32
1.31
Portability PPG Range
0.76
46.31
Portability Score
61.08
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
46
Clean History Matches
45
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-110.0
PPG-0.75
GF-0.25
GA1.13
PPG1.00
PPG-0.87
PPG0.60
PPG0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate-0.31
Failed-to-score rate14.7%
History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate-0.40
Failed-to-score rate17.7%
History Matches1
Goals Mean-0.25
Goals Std-0.08
Scored 1+ rate-0.15
Scored 2+ rate-0.03
Scored 3+ rate0.00
Venue Goals Mean-0.29
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std0.26
History Matches1
Conceded Mean1.13
Conceded Std0.64
Clean-sheet rate-0.31
Conceded 2+ rate23.2%
Conceded 3+ rate23.7%
Venue Conceded Mean0.94
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std1.20
History Matches1
Result entropy-0.17
Goal Difference Std0.53
Stability score16.88
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.23
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.96
Eligible Matches2
Lead Matches-5
Lead Win Rate-0.02
Lead Points Retention-0.03
Trailing Matches9
Non-loss rate0.5%
Trailing Win Rate5.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches2
First Half Goals For Mean-0.27
First Half Goals Against Mean0.50
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.01
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.61
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.00
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.26
Portability PPG Range0.55
Portability Score-14.77
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches3
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.74
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.81
Current Team ELO-110.0
Current Opponent ELO110.0
Current ELO Difference-219.9
Expected score-0.31
History Matches1
Residual Mean-0.13
Overperformance-9.08
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.27

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Oleksandria U19

D
LNZ Cherkasy U192–2Oleksandria U1928 Oct · away
Pick: LNZ Cherkasy U19 45% · missed
D
Oleksandria U191–1Shakhtar Donetsk U1921 Oct · home
Pick: Shakhtar Donetsk U19 55% · missed
W
SK Metalurh U190–5Oleksandria U1914 Oct · away
Pick: Oleksandria U19 44% · hit
W
Oleksandria U193–1Livyi Bereh U197 Oct · home
Pick: Oleksandria U19 43% · hit
D
Oleksandria U190–0Obolon' Kyiv U199 Sep · home
Pick: Oleksandria U19 48% · missed

Zhytomyr U19

L
Zhytomyr U190–3Rukh Vynnyky U1928 Oct · home
Pick: Rukh Vynnyky U19 49% · hit
L
Zhytomyr U192–3Veres Rivne U1914 Oct · home
Pick: Veres Rivne U19 39% · hit
L
Karpaty Lviv U192–0Zhytomyr U197 Oct · away
Pick: Karpaty Lviv U19 47% · hit
W
Zhytomyr U192–0Dynamo Kyiv U199 Sep · home
Pick: Dynamo Kyiv U19 64% · missed
L
LNZ Cherkasy U192–0Zhytomyr U1926 Aug · away
Pick: LNZ Cherkasy U19 46% · hit

About this match

Oleksandria U19 and Zhytomyr U19 meet in U19 League on Wednesday 4 November 2026, kickoff 10:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 30 Oct, 08:13 UTC: Oleksandria U19 win 40.5%, draw 23.4%, Zhytomyr U19 win 36.1%. The pick is Oleksandria U19 win. Over 2.5 goals: 59.8%. Both teams to score: 54.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.