ScoreProb
Liga III - Serie 2 Romania Group 2 - 12 2026

Olimpic Zărneşti vs ARO Muscelul Câmpulung

Olimpic Zărneşti Home · Elo 1,519
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
ARO Muscelul Câmpulung Away · Elo 1,542
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Olimpic Zărneşti win
Olimpic Zărneşti winPick
44.1%
Draw
20.6%
ARO Muscelul Câmpulung win
35.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes67.4%
No32.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.573.1%
Under 2.526.9%

How much we know

Olimpic Zărneşti history40 matches
ARO Muscelul Câmpulung history31 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (44.1%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Olimpic Zărneşti are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,519 against 1,542. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Olimpic Zărneşti score far more

    2.80 goals a game over 40 matches for Olimpic Zărneşti, against 1.81 over 31 for ARO Muscelul Câmpulung.

  • ARO Muscelul Câmpulung concede fewer

    Olimpic Zărneşti concede 1.90 a game, ARO Muscelul Câmpulung 1.26.

  • Olimpic Zărneşti games more often go over 2.5 goals

    85% of Olimpic Zărneşti matches, against 61% for ARO Muscelul Câmpulung. The model puts this match at 73% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 13 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Olimpic Zărneşti
ARO Muscelul Câmpulung@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1518.7
ELO
1541.5
40
ELO · Matches
31
1518.7
Current Team ELO
1541.5
1541.5
Current Opponent ELO
1518.7
-22.83
Current ELO Difference
22.83
0.47
Expected score
0.53
40
History Matches
31
0.02
Residual Mean
0.07
51.48
Overperformance
54.18
-0.09
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.21
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
2.40
2.40
Goals for per game
3.20
2.40
Goals against per game
1.40
20.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
1.10
PPG
2.30
2.40
Goals for per game
2.80
2.50
Goals against per game
0.90
30.0%
Win rate
70.0%
2.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.80
2.06
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.89
2.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.90
1.28
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.94
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
2.77
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.92
Overall performance9 signals
90
40
Matches
31
1.53
PPG
1.65
42.5%
Win rate
45.2%
25.0%
Draw rate
29.0%
32.5%
Loss rate
25.8%
92.5%
Over 1.5 rate
80.6%
85.0%
Over 2.5 rate
61.3%
67.5%
Over 3.5 rate
45.2%
2.80
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.03
Venue performance10 signals
100
20
Matches
15
1.60
PPG
1.33
50.0%
Win rate
33.3%
10.0%
Draw rate
33.3%
40.0%
Loss rate
33.3%
90.0%
Over 1.5 rate
73.3%
85.0%
Over 2.5 rate
60.0%
70.0%
Over 3.5 rate
40.0%
2.65
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.65
20
History Matches
15
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
2.80
Goals for per game
1.81
85.0%
Scoring rate
77.4%
67.5%
BTTS rate
51.6%
2.95
Goals for per game
1.20
85.0%
Scoring rate
66.7%
70.0%
BTTS rate
46.7%
40
History Matches
31
2.80
Goals Mean
1.81
2.29
Goals Std
1.53
85.0%
Scored 1+ rate
77.4%
72.5%
Scored 2+ rate
51.6%
42.5%
Scored 3+ rate
25.8%
2.95
Venue Goals Mean
1.20
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.90
Goals against per game
1.26
80.0%
Conceding rate
67.7%
1.90
Goals against per game
1.47
80.0%
Conceding rate
66.7%
40
History Matches
31
1.90
Conceded Mean
1.26
1.36
Conceded Std
1.05
65.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
48.4%
27.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
6.5%
1.90
Venue Conceded Mean
1.47
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
32.3%
15.0%
Failed-to-score rate
22.6%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
15.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
32.3%
15.0%
Failed-to-score rate
22.6%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
15.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
32.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
40
History Matches
31
0.98
Result entropy
0.97
2.80
Goal Difference Std
2.03
2.10
Stability score
2.82
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
19
Eligible Matches
19
6
Lead Matches
6
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
83.3%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
0.83
5
Trailing Matches
7
80.0%
Non-loss rate
42.9%
20.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
19
Halftime Coverage Matches
19
0.89
First Half Goals For Mean
0.63
0.84
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.63
1.53
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.63
1.11
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.68
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
86.90
Rest days
100.9
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
26
Normal Rest History Matches
10
1.85
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.00
13
Long Rest History Matches
20
1.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.50
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
6
Competition Season Count
5
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.35
Portability PPG Std
0.33
0.86
Portability PPG Range
0.67
58.77
Portability Score
60.00
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
40
Clean History Matches
31
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-22.83
PPG-0.12
GF0.99
GA0.64
PPG0.27
PPG-1.60
PPG-1.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches9
Clean-sheet rate-0.12
Failed-to-score rate-0.08
History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate-0.13
Failed-to-score rate-0.18
History Matches9
Goals Mean0.99
Goals Std0.76
Scored 1+ rate7.6%
Scored 2+ rate20.9%
Scored 3+ rate16.7%
Venue Goals Mean1.75
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std0.17
History Matches9
Conceded Mean0.64
Conceded Std0.31
Clean-sheet rate-0.12
Conceded 2+ rate16.6%
Conceded 3+ rate21.0%
Venue Conceded Mean0.43
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.34
History Matches9
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std0.77
Stability score-0.72
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.21
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.85
Eligible Matches0
Lead Matches0
Lead Win Rate16.7%
Lead Points Retention0.17
Trailing Matches-2
Non-loss rate37.1%
Trailing Win Rate20.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches0
First Half Goals For Mean0.26
First Half Goals Against Mean0.21
Second Half Goals For Mean0.89
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.42
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.02
Portability PPG Range0.19
Portability Score-1.23
Rest days-14.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches16
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.15
Long Rest History Matches-7
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.50
Current Team ELO-22.83
Current Opponent ELO22.83
Current ELO Difference-45.66
Expected score-0.07
History Matches9
Residual Mean-0.05
Overperformance-2.70
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.30

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Olimpic Zărneşti

L
Olimpic Zărneşti0–3ACS Mediaş 202231 Oct · home
Pick: Olimpic Zărneşti 42% · missed
L
Corona Braşov8–0Olimpic Zărneşti24 Oct · away
Pick: Corona Braşov 45% · hit
W
Olimpic Zărneşti4–1Valenii de Munte17 Oct · home
Pick: Olimpic Zărneşti 60% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

ARO Muscelul Câmpulung

W
Sepsi II1–3ARO Muscelul Câmpulung30 Oct · away
Pick: ARO Muscelul Câmpulung 42% · hit
L
ARO Muscelul Câmpulung1–2Inter Sibiu23 Oct · home
Pick: ARO Muscelul Câmpulung 63% · missed
W
Kids Tâmpa Braşov1–2ARO Muscelul Câmpulung16 Oct · away
Pick: Kids Tâmpa Braşov 44% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Olimpic Zărneşti and ARO Muscelul Câmpulung meet in Liga III - Serie 2 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Olimpic Zărneşti win 44.1%, draw 20.6%, ARO Muscelul Câmpulung win 35.3%. The pick is Olimpic Zărneşti win. Over 2.5 goals: 73.1%. Both teams to score: 67.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.