ScoreProb
Superettan Sweden Round 30 2026

Orebro SK vs Osters IF

Orebro SK Home · Elo 1,469
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Osters IF Away · Elo 1,510
Behrn Arena Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Orebro SK win
Orebro SK winPick
38.3%
Draw
23.7%
Osters IF win
38.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes59.7%
No40.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.556.7%
Under 2.543.3%

How much we know

Orebro SK history72 matches
Osters IF history70 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 14:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (38.3%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Orebro SK are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Osters IF are rated 41 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,510 against 1,469. On rating alone Osters IF would be expected to take 56% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.44 goals a game over 72 matches for Orebro SK, against 1.41 over 70 for Osters IF.

  • Defences are close

    Orebro SK concede 1.69 a game, Osters IF 1.66.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    63% of Orebro SK matches, against 59% for Osters IF. The model puts this match at 57% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 26 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Orebro SK
Osters IF
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1469.4
ELO
1510.3
72
ELO · Matches
70
1469.4
Current Team ELO
1510.3
1510.3
Current Opponent ELO
1469.4
-40.95
Current ELO Difference
40.95
0.44
Expected score
0.56
72
History Matches
70
-0.02
Residual Mean
0.00
48.53
Overperformance
50.16
0.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.06
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.80
2.20
Goals for per game
1.60
2.20
Goals against per game
0.80
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
1.50
1.80
Goals for per game
1.60
1.90
Goals against per game
1.40
30.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.60
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.43
1.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
1.04
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.11
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.63
1.64
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.09
Overall performance9 signals
90
72
Matches
70
1.04
PPG
1.23
25.0%
Win rate
34.3%
29.2%
Draw rate
20.0%
45.8%
Loss rate
45.7%
81.9%
Over 1.5 rate
78.6%
62.5%
Over 2.5 rate
58.6%
34.7%
Over 3.5 rate
37.1%
1.58
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.15
Venue performance10 signals
100
36
Matches
38
1.25
PPG
1.18
30.6%
Win rate
31.6%
33.3%
Draw rate
23.7%
36.1%
Loss rate
44.7%
77.8%
Over 1.5 rate
84.2%
55.6%
Over 2.5 rate
60.5%
27.8%
Over 3.5 rate
42.1%
1.56
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.42
36
History Matches
38
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.44
Goals for per game
1.41
79.2%
Scoring rate
70.0%
65.3%
BTTS rate
50.0%
1.33
Goals for per game
1.50
75.0%
Scoring rate
68.4%
58.3%
BTTS rate
52.6%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.55
70.0%
Scoring rate
80.0%
60.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
72
History Matches
70
1.44
Goals Mean
1.41
1.19
Goals Std
1.34
79.2%
Scored 1+ rate
70.0%
37.5%
Scored 2+ rate
37.1%
19.4%
Scored 3+ rate
22.9%
1.33
Venue Goals Mean
1.50
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.69
Goals against per game
1.66
77.8%
Conceding rate
75.7%
1.39
Goals against per game
1.79
72.2%
Conceding rate
78.9%
1.60
Goals against per game
1.45
75.0%
Conceding rate
65.0%
72
History Matches
70
1.69
Conceded Mean
1.66
1.30
Conceded Std
1.45
52.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
45.7%
27.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
28.6%
1.39
Venue Conceded Mean
1.79
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
22.2%
Clean-sheet rate
24.3%
20.8%
Failed-to-score rate
30.0%
27.8%
Clean-sheet rate
21.1%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
31.6%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
35.0%
30.0%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
22.2%
Clean-sheet rate
24.3%
20.8%
Failed-to-score rate
30.0%
27.8%
Clean-sheet rate
21.1%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
31.6%
22.2%
Clean-sheet rate
24.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
72
History Matches
70
0.97
Result entropy
0.95
1.58
Goal Difference Std
2.15
3.19
Stability score
4.72
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
70
Eligible Matches
69
21
Lead Matches
15
47.6%
Lead Win Rate
80.0%
0.54
Lead Points Retention
0.84
22
Trailing Matches
22
27.3%
Non-loss rate
22.7%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
4.5%
Goal timing5 signals
50
70
Halftime Coverage Matches
69
0.71
First Half Goals For Mean
0.65
0.64
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.68
0.71
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.78
1.04
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.96
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
73.88
Rest days
73.88
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
2
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.00
38
Normal Rest History Matches
39
1.08
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.41
30
Long Rest History Matches
28
0.93
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.86
Competition & season17 signals
170
20
Matches
20
0.95
PPG
1.60
20.0%
Win rate
50.0%
35.0%
Draw rate
10.0%
45.0%
Loss rate
40.0%
70.0%
Over 1.5 rate
70.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
65.0%
30.0%
Over 3.5 rate
40.0%
1.24
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.92
20
Current Competition Matches
20
0.95
Current Competition PPG
1.60
-0.60
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.10
7
Competition Season Count
7
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.69
Portability PPG Std
0.46
2.13
Portability PPG Range
1.22
42.19
Portability Score
52.24
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
72
Clean History Matches
70
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-40.95
PPG-0.19
GF0.03
GA0.04
PPG-0.65
PPG0.07
PPG-0.40
PPG-0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Failed-to-score rate-0.09
History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate6.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.07
History Matches2
Goals Mean0.03
Goals Std-0.15
Scored 1+ rate9.2%
Scored 2+ rate0.4%
Scored 3+ rate-0.03
Venue Goals Mean-0.17
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.03
History Matches2
Conceded Mean0.04
Conceded Std-0.16
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Conceded 2+ rate7.1%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Conceded Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.07
History Matches2
Result entropy0.02
Goal Difference Std-0.58
Stability score-1.53
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.36
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.45
Eligible Matches1
Lead Matches6
Lead Win Rate-0.32
Lead Points Retention-0.30
Trailing Matches0
Non-loss rate4.5%
Trailing Win Rate-0.05
Halftime Coverage Matches1
First Half Goals For Mean0.06
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.04
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.07
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.09
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.65
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.70
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.23
Portability PPG Range0.90
Portability Score-10.05
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match0.00
Normal Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.33
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match0.08
Current Team ELO-40.95
Current Opponent ELO40.95
Current ELO Difference-81.90
Expected score-0.12
History Matches2
Residual Mean-0.02
Overperformance-1.63
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.02

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Orebro SK

L
Landskrona BoIS2–1Orebro SK2 Nov · away
Pick: Landskrona BoIS 47% · hit
W
Orebro SK1–0Falkenbergs FF26 Oct · home
Pick: Orebro SK 40% · hit
D
IFK Norrkoping2–2Orebro SK20 Oct · away
Pick: IFK Norrkoping 66% · missed
D
Helsingborg1–1Orebro SK1 Sep · away
Pick: Helsingborg 47% · missed
W
Orebro SK2–1Varbergs BoIS FC25 Aug · home
Pick: Varbergs BoIS FC 42% · missed

Osters IF

W
Osters IF3–0Helsingborg2 Nov · home
Pick: Osters IF 51% · hit
W
IK brage4–5Osters IF24 Oct · away
Pick: IK brage 42% · missed
W
Osters IF3–1Oddevold17 Oct · home
Pick: Osters IF 40% · hit
D
Sandviken1–1Osters IF30 Aug · away
Pick: Sandviken 47% · missed
W
Osters IF1–0GIF Sundsvall25 Aug · home
Pick: Osters IF 61% · hit

About this match

Orebro SK and Osters IF meet in Superettan on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 14:00 UTC. The match is played at Behrn Arena. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Orebro SK win 38.3%, draw 23.7%, Osters IF win 38.0%. The pick is Orebro SK win. Over 2.5 goals: 56.7%. Both teams to score: 59.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.