ScoreProb
Superettan Sweden Round 30 2026

Ostersunds FK vs Oddevold

Ostersunds FK Home · Elo 1,519
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Oddevold Away · Elo 1,559
Jamtkraft Arena, Ostersund Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Ostersunds FK win
Ostersunds FK winPick
37.0%
Draw
28.2%
Oddevold win
34.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes55.3%
No44.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.551.5%
Under 2.548.5%

How much we know

Ostersunds FK history69 matches
Oddevold history68 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 14:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (37.0%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Ostersunds FK are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Oddevold are rated 40 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,559 against 1,519. On rating alone Oddevold would be expected to take 56% of the points on offer.

  • Oddevold score more

    1.17 goals a game over 69 matches for Ostersunds FK, against 1.65 over 68 for Oddevold.

  • Oddevold concede fewer

    Ostersunds FK concede 1.43 a game, Oddevold 1.28.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    49% of Ostersunds FK matches, against 56% for Oddevold. The model puts this match at 51% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 25 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Ostersunds FK
Oddevold
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1518.8
ELO
1559.2
69
ELO · Matches
68
1518.8
Current Team ELO
1559.2
1559.2
Current Opponent ELO
1518.8
-40.34
Current ELO Difference
40.34
0.44
Expected score
0.56
69
History Matches
68
0.01
Residual Mean
0.04
51.05
Overperformance
52.88
0.09
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.11
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
1.80
1.00
Goals for per game
1.60
0.60
Goals against per game
1.00
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.60
PPG
1.50
1.20
Goals for per game
1.50
1.00
Goals against per game
1.20
40.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
0.75
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.20
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
1.26
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.47
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.33
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.10
Overall performance9 signals
90
69
Matches
68
1.28
PPG
1.54
31.9%
Win rate
41.2%
31.9%
Draw rate
30.9%
36.2%
Loss rate
27.9%
73.9%
Over 1.5 rate
73.5%
49.3%
Over 2.5 rate
55.9%
29.0%
Over 3.5 rate
36.8%
1.77
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.88
Venue performance10 signals
100
34
Matches
36
1.62
PPG
1.61
47.1%
Win rate
41.7%
20.6%
Draw rate
36.1%
32.4%
Loss rate
22.2%
82.4%
Over 1.5 rate
72.2%
64.7%
Over 2.5 rate
44.4%
38.2%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
1.68
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.75
34
History Matches
36
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.17
Goals for per game
1.65
66.7%
Scoring rate
79.4%
50.7%
BTTS rate
55.9%
1.62
Goals for per game
1.67
85.3%
Scoring rate
77.8%
61.8%
BTTS rate
50.0%
1.45
Goals for per game
1.65
80.0%
Scoring rate
85.0%
60.0%
BTTS rate
70.0%
69
History Matches
68
1.17
Goals Mean
1.65
1.05
Goals Std
1.49
66.7%
Scored 1+ rate
79.4%
37.7%
Scored 2+ rate
44.1%
11.6%
Scored 3+ rate
20.6%
1.62
Venue Goals Mean
1.67
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.43
Goals against per game
1.28
71.0%
Conceding rate
64.7%
1.47
Goals against per game
1.08
70.6%
Conceding rate
58.3%
1.10
Goals against per game
1.40
75.0%
Conceding rate
70.0%
69
History Matches
68
1.43
Conceded Mean
1.28
1.39
Conceded Std
1.22
42.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
41.2%
15.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
16.2%
1.47
Venue Conceded Mean
1.08
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
29.0%
Clean-sheet rate
35.3%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
20.6%
29.4%
Clean-sheet rate
41.7%
14.7%
Failed-to-score rate
22.2%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
30.0%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
15.0%
29.0%
Clean-sheet rate
35.3%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
20.6%
29.4%
Clean-sheet rate
41.7%
14.7%
Failed-to-score rate
22.2%
29.0%
Clean-sheet rate
35.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
69
History Matches
68
1.00
Result entropy
0.99
1.77
Goal Difference Std
1.88
0.17
Stability score
1.29
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
66
Eligible Matches
67
13
Lead Matches
24
76.9%
Lead Win Rate
66.7%
0.85
Lead Points Retention
0.75
22
Trailing Matches
14
13.6%
Non-loss rate
35.7%
4.5%
Trailing Win Rate
7.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
66
Halftime Coverage Matches
67
0.45
First Half Goals For Mean
0.70
0.62
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.48
0.68
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.91
0.85
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.81
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
74.88
Rest days
76.13
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
1
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
32
Normal Rest History Matches
39
1.41
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.51
32
Long Rest History Matches
27
1.22
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.56
Competition & season17 signals
170
20
Matches
20
1.70
PPG
1.45
45.0%
Win rate
35.0%
35.0%
Draw rate
40.0%
20.0%
Loss rate
25.0%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
40.0%
Over 2.5 rate
60.0%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
45.0%
1.06
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.30
20
Current Competition Matches
20
1.70
Current Competition PPG
1.45
0.35
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.25
5
Competition Season Count
7
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.38
Portability PPG Std
0.56
1.08
Portability PPG Range
1.83
57.02
Portability Score
47.22
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
69
Clean History Matches
68
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-40.34
PPG-0.27
GF-0.47
GA0.16
PPG0.25
PPG0.01
PPG0.00
PPG0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate-0.06
Failed-to-score rate12.7%
History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate-0.12
Failed-to-score rate-0.08
History Matches1
Goals Mean-0.47
Goals Std-0.44
Scored 1+ rate-0.13
Scored 2+ rate-0.06
Scored 3+ rate-0.09
Venue Goals Mean-0.05
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.46
History Matches1
Conceded Mean0.16
Conceded Std0.17
Clean-sheet rate-0.06
Conceded 2+ rate0.9%
Conceded 3+ rate0.00
Venue Conceded Mean0.39
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.20
History Matches1
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.11
Stability score-1.12
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.14
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.23
Eligible Matches-1
Lead Matches-11
Lead Win Rate10.3%
Lead Points Retention0.10
Trailing Matches8
Non-loss rate-0.22
Trailing Win Rate-0.03
Halftime Coverage Matches-1
First Half Goals For Mean-0.25
First Half Goals Against Mean0.14
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.23
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.04
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.10
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.18
Portability PPG Range-0.76
Portability Score9.79
Rest days-1.25
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches3
Short Rest Points Per Match-2.00
Normal Rest History Matches-7
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.11
Long Rest History Matches5
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.34
Current Team ELO-40.34
Current Opponent ELO40.34
Current ELO Difference-80.68
Expected score-0.12
History Matches1
Residual Mean-0.02
Overperformance-1.83
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.01

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Ostersunds FK

L
IFK Norrkoping3–0Ostersunds FK31 Oct · away
Pick: IFK Norrkoping 57% · hit
W
Ostersunds FK4–1United Nordic24 Oct · home
Pick: Ostersunds FK 40% · hit
D
Sandviken0–0Ostersunds FK17 Oct · away
Pick: Sandviken 46% · missed
D
Landskrona BoIS1–1Ostersunds FK29 Aug · away
Pick: Landskrona BoIS 47% · missed
D
Ostersunds FK0–0Ljungskile SK24 Aug · home
Pick: Ostersunds FK 45% · missed

Oddevold

W
Oddevold2–1IK brage30 Oct · home
Pick: Oddevold 54% · hit
W
Oddevold7–0GIF Sundsvall23 Oct · home
Pick: Oddevold 65% · hit
L
Osters IF3–1Oddevold17 Oct · away
Pick: Osters IF 40% · hit
L
Varbergs BoIS FC3–1Oddevold30 Aug · away
Pick: Varbergs BoIS FC 48% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Ostersunds FK and Oddevold meet in Superettan on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 14:00 UTC. The match is played at Jamtkraft Arena, Ostersund. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Ostersunds FK win 37.0%, draw 28.2%, Oddevold win 34.8%. The pick is Ostersunds FK win. Over 2.5 goals: 51.5%. Both teams to score: 55.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.