ScoreProb
Superettan Sweden Round 30 2026

Sandviken vs United Nordic

Sandviken Home · Elo 1,498
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
United Nordic Away · Elo 1,614
Jernvallen, Sandviken Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Sandviken win
Sandviken winPick
41.3%
Draw
25.3%
United Nordic win
33.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes55.1%
No44.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.559.6%
Under 2.540.4%

How much we know

Sandviken history73 matches
United Nordic history56 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 14:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (41.3%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Sandviken are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • United Nordic are rated 117 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,614 against 1,498. On rating alone United Nordic would be expected to take 66% of the points on offer.

  • United Nordic score far more

    1.27 goals a game over 73 matches for Sandviken, against 2.04 over 56 for United Nordic.

  • United Nordic concede fewer

    Sandviken concede 1.63 a game, United Nordic 1.14.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    60% of Sandviken matches, against 55% for United Nordic. The model puts this match at 60% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Sandviken
United Nordic
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1497.6
ELO
1614.2
73
ELO · Matches
56
1497.6
Current Team ELO
1614.2
1614.2
Current Opponent ELO
1497.6
-116.6
Current ELO Difference
116.6
0.34
Expected score
0.66
73
History Matches
56
-0.01
Residual Mean
0.10
49.46
Overperformance
57.29
0.19
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.06
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
1.40
2.00
Goals for per game
1.20
1.00
Goals against per game
1.00
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.70
PPG
1.30
1.90
Goals for per game
1.20
1.50
Goals against per game
1.10
50.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
1.51
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.98
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
1.28
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.94
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
2.29
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
0.94
Overall performance9 signals
90
73
Matches
56
1.27
PPG
1.96
37.0%
Win rate
57.1%
16.4%
Draw rate
25.0%
46.6%
Loss rate
17.9%
75.3%
Over 1.5 rate
85.7%
60.3%
Over 2.5 rate
55.4%
32.9%
Over 3.5 rate
37.5%
1.96
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.84
Venue performance10 signals
100
34
Matches
28
1.47
PPG
1.54
44.1%
Win rate
42.9%
14.7%
Draw rate
25.0%
41.2%
Loss rate
32.1%
76.5%
Over 1.5 rate
85.7%
61.8%
Over 2.5 rate
46.4%
41.2%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
2.12
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.50
34
History Matches
28
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.27
Goals for per game
2.04
65.8%
Scoring rate
89.3%
50.7%
BTTS rate
60.7%
1.62
Goals for per game
1.46
70.6%
Scoring rate
82.1%
55.9%
BTTS rate
60.7%
1.65
Goals for per game
1.55
80.0%
Scoring rate
85.0%
60.0%
BTTS rate
65.0%
73
History Matches
56
1.27
Goals Mean
2.04
1.25
Goals Std
1.45
65.8%
Scored 1+ rate
89.3%
39.7%
Scored 2+ rate
58.9%
12.3%
Scored 3+ rate
32.1%
1.62
Venue Goals Mean
1.46
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.63
Goals against per game
1.14
80.8%
Conceding rate
67.9%
1.59
Goals against per game
1.25
82.4%
Conceding rate
75.0%
1.50
Goals against per game
1.35
80.0%
Conceding rate
70.0%
73
History Matches
56
1.63
Conceded Mean
1.14
1.29
Conceded Std
1.08
45.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
30.4%
24.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
12.5%
1.59
Venue Conceded Mean
1.25
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
19.2%
Clean-sheet rate
32.1%
34.2%
Failed-to-score rate
10.7%
17.6%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
29.4%
Failed-to-score rate
17.9%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
30.0%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
15.0%
19.2%
Clean-sheet rate
32.1%
34.2%
Failed-to-score rate
10.7%
17.6%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
29.4%
Failed-to-score rate
17.9%
19.2%
Clean-sheet rate
32.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
73
History Matches
56
0.93
Result entropy
0.89
1.96
Goal Difference Std
1.84
7.10
Stability score
11.34
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
71
Eligible Matches
56
17
Lead Matches
19
94.1%
Lead Win Rate
84.2%
0.94
Lead Points Retention
0.88
32
Trailing Matches
9
21.9%
Non-loss rate
33.3%
6.3%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
71
Halftime Coverage Matches
56
0.56
First Half Goals For Mean
0.79
0.90
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.46
0.68
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.25
0.73
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.68
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
75.96
Rest days
76.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
5
Short Rest History Matches
0
1.20
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
40
Normal Rest History Matches
34
1.33
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.94
27
Long Rest History Matches
21
1.26
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.95
Competition & season17 signals
170
20
Matches
20
1.30
PPG
1.60
35.0%
Win rate
40.0%
25.0%
Draw rate
40.0%
40.0%
Loss rate
20.0%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
85.0%
65.0%
Over 2.5 rate
45.0%
40.0%
Over 3.5 rate
35.0%
1.85
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.50
20
Current Competition Matches
20
1.30
Current Competition PPG
1.60
0.15
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.20
7
Competition Season Count
3
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.22
Portability PPG Std
0.27
0.62
Portability PPG Range
0.57
69.59
Portability Score
65.18
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
73
Clean History Matches
56
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-116.6
PPG-0.69
GF-0.76
GA0.49
PPG-0.30
PPG-0.07
PPG0.60
PPG0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches17
Clean-sheet rate-0.13
Failed-to-score rate23.5%
History Matches6
Clean-sheet rate-0.07
Failed-to-score rate11.6%
History Matches17
Goals Mean-0.76
Goals Std-0.20
Scored 1+ rate-0.24
Scored 2+ rate-0.19
Scored 3+ rate-0.20
Venue Goals Mean0.15
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std0.53
History Matches17
Conceded Mean0.49
Conceded Std0.21
Clean-sheet rate-0.13
Conceded 2+ rate14.8%
Conceded 3+ rate12.2%
Venue Conceded Mean0.34
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.34
History Matches17
Result entropy0.04
Goal Difference Std0.12
Stability score-4.24
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.21
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.35
Eligible Matches15
Lead Matches-2
Lead Win Rate9.9%
Lead Points Retention0.06
Trailing Matches23
Non-loss rate-0.11
Trailing Win Rate6.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches15
First Half Goals For Mean-0.22
First Half Goals Against Mean0.44
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.57
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.05
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.30
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.05
Competition Season Count4
Eligible Competition Season Count3
Portability PPG Std-0.05
Portability PPG Range0.05
Portability Score4.42
Rest days-0.08
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches5
Normal Rest History Matches6
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.62
Long Rest History Matches6
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.69
Current Team ELO-116.6
Current Opponent ELO116.6
Current ELO Difference-233.2
Expected score-0.32
History Matches17
Residual Mean-0.11
Overperformance-7.83
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.25

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Sandviken

L
Falkenbergs FF2–1Sandviken31 Oct · away
Pick: Falkenbergs FF 55% · hit
W
IFK Varnamo0–1Sandviken24 Oct · away
Pick: IFK Varnamo 39% · missed
D
Sandviken0–0Ostersunds FK17 Oct · home
Pick: Sandviken 46% · missed
D
Sandviken1–1Osters IF30 Aug · home
Pick: Sandviken 47% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

United Nordic

W
United Nordic4–2GIF Sundsvall31 Oct · home
Pick: United Nordic 69% · hit
L
Ostersunds FK4–1United Nordic24 Oct · away
Pick: Ostersunds FK 40% · hit
W
United Nordic2–1Norrby IF18 Oct · home
Pick: United Nordic 49% · hit
L
United Nordic1–3IFK Norrkoping29 Aug · home
Pick: IFK Norrkoping 48% · hit
W
Bollstanäs0–2United Nordic26 Aug · away
Pick: United Nordic 41% · hit

About this match

Sandviken and United Nordic meet in Superettan on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 14:00 UTC. The match is played at Jernvallen, Sandviken. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Sandviken win 41.3%, draw 25.3%, United Nordic win 33.4%. The pick is Sandviken win. Over 2.5 goals: 59.6%. Both teams to score: 55.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.