ScoreProb
Allsvenskan Sweden Round 28 2026

Orgryte IS vs Vasteras SK FK

Orgryte IS Home · Elo 1,491
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Vasteras SK FK Away · Elo 1,580
Gamla Ullevi, Gothenburg Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Vasteras SK FK win
Orgryte IS win
37.3%
Draw
24.2%
Vasteras SK FK winPick
38.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes55.6%
No44.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.557.8%
Under 2.542.2%

How much we know

Orgryte IS history66 matches
Vasteras SK FK history68 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 7 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 16:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (38.6%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Vasteras SK FK are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Vasteras SK FK are rated 89 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,580 against 1,491. On rating alone Vasteras SK FK would be expected to take 62% of the points on offer.

  • Vasteras SK FK score more

    1.50 goals a game over 66 matches for Orgryte IS, against 1.79 over 68 for Vasteras SK FK.

  • Vasteras SK FK concede fewer

    Orgryte IS concede 1.65 a game, Vasteras SK FK 1.29.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    58% of Orgryte IS matches, against 62% for Vasteras SK FK. The model puts this match at 58% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 25 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Orgryte IS
Vasteras SK FK
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1491.1
ELO
1579.8
66
ELO · Matches
68
1491.1
Current Team ELO
1579.8
1579.8
Current Opponent ELO
1491.1
-88.64
Current ELO Difference
88.64
0.38
Expected score
0.62
66
History Matches
68
-0.01
Residual Mean
0.06
49.28
Overperformance
54.55
-0.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.07
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
1.40
1.80
Goals for per game
0.60
1.80
Goals against per game
2.00
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
1.70
1.50
Goals for per game
1.20
1.90
Goals against per game
1.40
20.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
1.36
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.08
1.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.91
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.62
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.44
Overall performance9 signals
90
66
Matches
68
1.33
PPG
1.76
34.8%
Win rate
52.9%
28.8%
Draw rate
17.6%
36.4%
Loss rate
29.4%
89.4%
Over 1.5 rate
76.5%
57.6%
Over 2.5 rate
61.8%
36.4%
Over 3.5 rate
36.8%
2.18
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.24
Venue performance10 signals
100
32
Matches
33
1.53
PPG
1.55
40.6%
Win rate
48.5%
31.3%
Draw rate
9.1%
28.1%
Loss rate
42.4%
87.5%
Over 1.5 rate
78.8%
56.3%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
40.6%
Over 3.5 rate
36.4%
2.08
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.42
32
History Matches
33
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.50
Goals for per game
1.79
71.2%
Scoring rate
77.9%
53.0%
BTTS rate
45.6%
1.88
Goals for per game
1.48
75.0%
Scoring rate
69.7%
53.1%
BTTS rate
48.5%
1.22
Goals for per game
1.39
66.7%
Scoring rate
66.7%
55.6%
BTTS rate
44.4%
66
History Matches
68
1.50
Goals Mean
1.79
1.37
Goals Std
1.43
71.2%
Scored 1+ rate
77.9%
43.9%
Scored 2+ rate
57.4%
22.7%
Scored 3+ rate
25.0%
1.88
Venue Goals Mean
1.48
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.65
Goals against per game
1.29
75.8%
Conceding rate
64.7%
1.38
Goals against per game
1.67
68.8%
Conceding rate
75.8%
2.28
Goals against per game
1.78
83.3%
Conceding rate
66.7%
66
History Matches
68
1.65
Conceded Mean
1.29
1.44
Conceded Std
1.45
50.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
30.9%
25.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
17.6%
1.38
Venue Conceded Mean
1.67
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
24.2%
Clean-sheet rate
35.3%
28.8%
Failed-to-score rate
22.1%
31.3%
Clean-sheet rate
24.2%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
30.3%
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
24.2%
Clean-sheet rate
35.3%
28.8%
Failed-to-score rate
22.1%
31.3%
Clean-sheet rate
24.2%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
30.3%
24.2%
Clean-sheet rate
35.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
66
History Matches
68
1.00
Result entropy
0.91
2.18
Goal Difference Std
2.24
0.45
Stability score
8.73
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
66
Eligible Matches
68
19
Lead Matches
29
68.4%
Lead Win Rate
86.2%
0.77
Lead Points Retention
0.90
27
Trailing Matches
18
29.6%
Non-loss rate
38.9%
18.5%
Trailing Win Rate
22.2%
Goal timing5 signals
50
66
Halftime Coverage Matches
68
0.67
First Half Goals For Mean
0.88
0.79
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.65
0.83
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.91
0.86
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.65
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
74.00
Rest days
76.19
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
2
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
34
Normal Rest History Matches
41
1.26
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.76
30
Long Rest History Matches
24
1.40
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.63
Competition & season17 signals
170
18
Matches
18
0.78
PPG
1.44
16.7%
Win rate
38.9%
27.8%
Draw rate
27.8%
55.6%
Loss rate
33.3%
94.4%
Over 1.5 rate
72.2%
55.6%
Over 2.5 rate
55.6%
38.9%
Over 3.5 rate
38.9%
2.20
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.09
18
Current Competition Matches
18
0.78
Current Competition PPG
1.44
-1.06
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.39
8
Competition Season Count
7
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.56
Portability PPG Std
0.41
1.87
Portability PPG Range
1.17
47.31
Portability Score
55.20
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
66
Clean History Matches
68
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-88.64
PPG-0.43
GF-0.29
GA0.36
PPG-0.67
PPG-0.01
PPG-0.40
PPG-0.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate-0.11
Failed-to-score rate6.7%
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate7.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.05
History Matches-2
Goals Mean-0.29
Goals Std-0.06
Scored 1+ rate-0.07
Scored 2+ rate-0.13
Scored 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Goals Mean0.39
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std0.28
History Matches-2
Conceded Mean0.36
Conceded Std-0.01
Clean-sheet rate-0.11
Conceded 2+ rate19.1%
Conceded 3+ rate8.1%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.29
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.61
History Matches-2
Result entropy0.08
Goal Difference Std-0.06
Stability score-8.28
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.02
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.82
Eligible Matches-2
Lead Matches-10
Lead Win Rate-0.18
Lead Points Retention-0.12
Trailing Matches9
Non-loss rate-0.09
Trailing Win Rate-0.04
Halftime Coverage Matches-2
First Half Goals For Mean-0.22
First Half Goals Against Mean0.14
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.08
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.22
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.67
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.15
Portability PPG Range0.70
Portability Score-7.89
Rest days-2.19
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match0.00
Normal Rest History Matches-7
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.49
Long Rest History Matches6
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.23
Current Team ELO-88.64
Current Opponent ELO88.64
Current ELO Difference-177.3
Expected score-0.25
History Matches-2
Residual Mean-0.07
Overperformance-5.26
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.11

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Orgryte IS

L
IF Elfsborg2–1Orgryte IS1 Nov · away
Pick: IF Elfsborg 60% · hit
L
Orgryte IS1–2Mjallby AIF29 Oct · home
Pick: Mjallby AIF 45% · hit
D
Djurgardens IF2–2Orgryte IS24 Oct · away
Pick: Djurgardens IF 65% · missed
W
Orgryte IS4–2Gais18 Oct · home
Pick: Gais 44% · missed
L
IFK Goteborg1–0Orgryte IS30 Aug · away
Pick: IFK Goteborg 53% · hit

Vasteras SK FK

W
Vasteras SK FK1–0IF Brommapojkarna1 Nov · home
Pick: Vasteras SK FK 40% · hit
W
Degerfors IF0–3Vasteras SK FK28 Oct · away
Pick: Degerfors IF 37% · missed
L
Vasteras SK FK1–2Halmstad23 Oct · home
Pick: Vasteras SK FK 59% · missed
W
Vasteras SK FK1–0Mjallby AIF18 Oct · home
Pick: Mjallby AIF 42% · missed
W
BK Hacken1–3Vasteras SK FK29 Aug · away
Pick: BK Hacken 54% · missed

About this match

Orgryte IS and Vasteras SK FK meet in Allsvenskan on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 16:30 UTC. The match is played at Gamla Ullevi, Gothenburg. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Orgryte IS win 37.3%, draw 24.2%, Vasteras SK FK win 38.6%. The pick is Vasteras SK FK win. Over 2.5 goals: 57.8%. Both teams to score: 55.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.