ScoreProb
3. Lig - Group 3 Türkiye 3. Lig Group 3 - 10 2026

Osmaniyespor vs Adanaspor

Osmaniyespor Home · Elo 1,488
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Adanaspor Away · Elo 1,269
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Osmaniyespor win
Osmaniyespor winPick
74.7%
Draw
13.6%
Adanaspor win
11.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes36.7%
No63.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.569.7%
Under 2.530.3%

How much we know

Osmaniyespor history45 matches
Adanaspor history49 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 1 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 10:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 70–79% band (74.7%). Picks in that band won 76.2% of the time, and the model said 73.9% on average, over 583 matches.

Why Osmaniyespor are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Osmaniyespor are rated 219 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,488 against 1,269. On rating alone Osmaniyespor would be expected to take 78% of the points on offer.

  • Osmaniyespor score far more

    1.40 goals a game over 45 matches for Osmaniyespor, against 0.47 over 49 for Adanaspor.

  • Osmaniyespor concede fewer

    Osmaniyespor concede 1.60 a game, Adanaspor 4.08.

  • Adanaspor games more often go over 2.5 goals

    51% of Osmaniyespor matches, against 82% for Adanaspor. The model puts this match at 70% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 26 Apr 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Osmaniyespor
Adanaspor
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1488.1
ELO
1268.7
45
ELO · Matches
49
1488.1
Current Team ELO
1268.7
1268.7
Current Opponent ELO
1488.1
219.4
Current ELO Difference
-219.4
0.78
Expected score
0.22
45
History Matches
49
-0.01
Residual Mean
-0.23
49.25
Overperformance
33.64
0.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.20
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
0.00
1.80
Goals for per game
0.20
2.20
Goals against per game
4.60
20.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
0.00
1.70
Goals for per game
0.20
1.50
Goals against per game
5.10
40.0%
Win rate
0.0%
1.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.20
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.40
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
5.10
1.12
Recent 10 Conceded Std
2.07
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.00
1.40
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.87
Overall performance9 signals
90
45
Matches
49
1.31
PPG
0.31
35.6%
Win rate
8.2%
24.4%
Draw rate
6.1%
40.0%
Loss rate
85.7%
82.2%
Over 1.5 rate
91.8%
51.1%
Over 2.5 rate
81.6%
31.1%
Over 3.5 rate
59.2%
1.93
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.71
Venue performance10 signals
100
23
Matches
24
1.70
PPG
0.29
47.8%
Win rate
8.3%
26.1%
Draw rate
4.2%
26.1%
Loss rate
87.5%
91.3%
Over 1.5 rate
91.7%
60.9%
Over 2.5 rate
83.3%
34.8%
Over 3.5 rate
62.5%
1.83
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.75
23
History Matches
24
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.40
Goals for per game
0.47
66.7%
Scoring rate
30.6%
53.3%
BTTS rate
26.5%
1.83
Goals for per game
0.42
82.6%
Scoring rate
25.0%
60.9%
BTTS rate
20.8%
45
History Matches
49
1.40
Goals Mean
0.47
1.24
Goals Std
0.84
66.7%
Scored 1+ rate
30.6%
46.7%
Scored 2+ rate
12.2%
22.2%
Scored 3+ rate
2.0%
1.83
Venue Goals Mean
0.42
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.60
Goals against per game
4.08
82.2%
Conceding rate
93.9%
1.52
Goals against per game
4.00
78.3%
Conceding rate
95.8%
45
History Matches
49
1.60
Conceded Mean
4.08
1.48
Conceded Std
2.35
40.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
79.6%
17.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
71.4%
1.52
Venue Conceded Mean
4.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
17.8%
Clean-sheet rate
6.1%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
69.4%
21.7%
Clean-sheet rate
4.2%
17.4%
Failed-to-score rate
75.0%
17.8%
Clean-sheet rate
6.1%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
69.4%
21.7%
Clean-sheet rate
4.2%
17.4%
Failed-to-score rate
75.0%
17.8%
Clean-sheet rate
6.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
45
History Matches
49
0.98
Result entropy
0.46
1.93
Goal Difference Std
2.71
1.83
Stability score
53.79
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
45
Eligible Matches
49
11
Lead Matches
5
90.9%
Lead Win Rate
60.0%
0.94
Lead Points Retention
0.67
16
Trailing Matches
37
31.3%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
12.5%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
45
Halftime Coverage Matches
49
0.53
First Half Goals For Mean
0.16
0.64
First Half Goals Against Mean
1.82
0.87
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.31
0.96
Second Half Goals Against Mean
2.27
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
203.0
Rest days
195.9
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
1
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
31
Normal Rest History Matches
31
1.29
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.26
13
Long Rest History Matches
16
1.38
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.25
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
3
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.13
Portability PPG Std
0.40
0.26
Portability PPG Range
0.79
79.55
Portability Score
55.83
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
45
Clean History Matches
49
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO219.4
PPG1.00
GF0.93
GA-2.48
PPG1.40
PPG0.80
PPG1.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate11.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.36
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate17.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.58
History Matches-4
Goals Mean0.93
Goals Std0.40
Scored 1+ rate36.1%
Scored 2+ rate34.4%
Scored 3+ rate20.2%
Venue Goals Mean1.41
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.50
Recent 10 Goals Std0.50
History Matches-4
Conceded Mean-2.48
Conceded Std-0.87
Clean-sheet rate11.7%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.40
Conceded 3+ rate-0.54
Venue Conceded Mean-2.48
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-3.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.95
History Matches-4
Result entropy0.52
Goal Difference Std-0.78
Stability score-51.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.96
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.47
Eligible Matches-4
Lead Matches6
Lead Win Rate30.9%
Lead Points Retention0.27
Trailing Matches-21
Non-loss rate31.3%
Trailing Win Rate12.5%
Halftime Coverage Matches-4
First Half Goals For Mean0.37
First Half Goals Against Mean-1.17
Second Half Goals For Mean0.56
Second Half Goals Against Mean-1.31
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.27
Portability PPG Range-0.53
Portability Score23.72
Rest days7.04
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest Points Per Match1.03
Long Rest History Matches-3
Long Rest Points Per Match1.13
Current Team ELO219.4
Current Opponent ELO-219.4
Current ELO Difference438.9
Expected score0.56
History Matches-4
Residual Mean0.22
Overperformance15.61
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.22

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Osmaniyespor

W
Ağrı 19702–4Osmaniyespor1 Nov · away
Pick: Ağrı 1970 51% · missed
L
Kırıkkale Büyük Anadolu3–1Osmaniyespor25 Oct · away
Pick: Kırıkkale Büyük Anadolu 52% · hit
W
Osmaniyespor1–0Diyarbekirspor18 Oct · home
Pick: Osmaniyespor 38% · hit
L
Osmaniyespor0–3Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu7 Oct · home
Pick: Osmaniyespor 66% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Adanaspor

D
Adanaspor1–1Kırıkkale Büyük Anadolu30 Oct · home
Pick: Kırıkkale Büyük Anadolu 74% · missed
L
Diyarbekirspor3–1Adanaspor24 Oct · away
Pick: Diyarbekirspor 72% · hit
L
Adanaspor0–3Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu17 Oct · home
Pick: Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu 56% · hit
L
Adanaspor0–2Adana Adaletgucu7 Oct · home
Pick: Adanaspor 60% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Osmaniyespor and Adanaspor meet in 3. Lig - Group 3 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 10:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Osmaniyespor win 74.7%, draw 13.6%, Adanaspor win 11.8%. The pick is Osmaniyespor win. Over 2.5 goals: 69.7%. Both teams to score: 36.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.