ScoreProb
3. Lig - Group 3 Türkiye 3. Lig Group 3 - 10 2026

Yeşilyurt Belediyespor vs Kırşehir Belediyespor

Yeşilyurt Belediyespor Home · Elo 1,538
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Kırşehir Belediyespor Away · Elo 1,448
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Yeşilyurt Belediyespor win
Yeşilyurt Belediyespor winPick
50.6%
Draw
22.0%
Kırşehir Belediyespor win
27.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes53.8%
No46.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.555.2%
Under 2.544.8%

How much we know

Yeşilyurt Belediyespor history37 matches
Kırşehir Belediyespor history45 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 1 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 10:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (50.6%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Yeşilyurt Belediyespor are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Yeşilyurt Belediyespor are rated 89 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,538 against 1,448. On rating alone Yeşilyurt Belediyespor would be expected to take 63% of the points on offer.

  • Yeşilyurt Belediyespor score more

    1.57 goals a game over 37 matches for Yeşilyurt Belediyespor, against 1.04 over 45 for Kırşehir Belediyespor.

  • Yeşilyurt Belediyespor concede fewer

    Yeşilyurt Belediyespor concede 1.22 a game, Kırşehir Belediyespor 1.38.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    46% of Yeşilyurt Belediyespor matches, against 42% for Kırşehir Belediyespor. The model puts this match at 55% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 17 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Yeşilyurt Belediyespor
Kırşehir Belediyespor
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1537.5
ELO
1448.4
37
ELO · Matches
45
1537.5
Current Team ELO
1448.4
1448.4
Current Opponent ELO
1537.5
89.12
Current ELO Difference
-89.12
0.63
Expected score
0.37
37
History Matches
45
0.05
Residual Mean
-0.06
53.06
Overperformance
45.67
0.09
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.12
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
0.80
1.20
Goals for per game
1.60
1.00
Goals against per game
1.60
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.60
PPG
0.90
1.90
Goals for per game
1.20
1.30
Goals against per game
1.30
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
1.70
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.47
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.35
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.43
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.92
Overall performance9 signals
90
37
Matches
45
1.51
PPG
1.04
40.5%
Win rate
22.2%
29.7%
Draw rate
37.8%
29.7%
Loss rate
40.0%
67.6%
Over 1.5 rate
64.4%
45.9%
Over 2.5 rate
42.2%
37.8%
Over 3.5 rate
31.1%
1.60
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.66
Venue performance10 signals
100
18
Matches
24
1.83
PPG
0.79
50.0%
Win rate
16.7%
33.3%
Draw rate
29.2%
16.7%
Loss rate
54.2%
61.1%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
44.4%
Over 2.5 rate
54.2%
38.9%
Over 3.5 rate
45.8%
1.63
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.78
18
History Matches
24
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.57
Goals for per game
1.04
73.0%
Scoring rate
64.4%
54.1%
BTTS rate
48.9%
1.72
Goals for per game
1.08
72.2%
Scoring rate
62.5%
44.4%
BTTS rate
54.2%
37
History Matches
45
1.57
Goals Mean
1.04
1.48
Goals Std
1.11
73.0%
Scored 1+ rate
64.4%
43.2%
Scored 2+ rate
24.4%
21.6%
Scored 3+ rate
8.9%
1.72
Venue Goals Mean
1.08
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.22
Goals against per game
1.38
73.0%
Conceding rate
71.1%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.71
55.6%
Conceding rate
83.3%
37
History Matches
45
1.22
Conceded Mean
1.38
0.96
Conceded Std
1.25
37.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
37.8%
10.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
20.0%
1.00
Venue Conceded Mean
1.71
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
27.0%
Clean-sheet rate
28.9%
27.0%
Failed-to-score rate
35.6%
44.4%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
27.8%
Failed-to-score rate
37.5%
27.0%
Clean-sheet rate
28.9%
27.0%
Failed-to-score rate
35.6%
44.4%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
27.8%
Failed-to-score rate
37.5%
27.0%
Clean-sheet rate
28.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
37
History Matches
45
0.99
Result entropy
0.97
1.60
Goal Difference Std
1.66
1.03
Stability score
2.74
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
37
Eligible Matches
45
14
Lead Matches
12
78.6%
Lead Win Rate
50.0%
0.86
Lead Points Retention
0.61
8
Trailing Matches
19
37.5%
Non-loss rate
26.3%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
37
Halftime Coverage Matches
45
0.76
First Half Goals For Mean
0.44
0.43
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.64
0.81
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.60
0.78
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.73
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
174.8
Rest days
203.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
1
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
25
Normal Rest History Matches
31
1.36
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.13
11
Long Rest History Matches
12
1.73
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.92
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
3
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.52
Portability PPG Std
0.10
1.25
Portability PPG Range
0.20
49.10
Portability Score
83.00
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
37
Clean History Matches
45
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO89.12
PPG0.47
GF0.52
GA-0.16
PPG1.04
PPG0.40
PPG0.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-8
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Failed-to-score rate-0.09
History Matches-6
Clean-sheet rate27.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.10
History Matches-8
Goals Mean0.52
Goals Std0.37
Scored 1+ rate8.5%
Scored 2+ rate18.8%
Scored 3+ rate12.7%
Venue Goals Mean0.64
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std0.23
History Matches-8
Conceded Mean-0.16
Conceded Std-0.29
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Conceded 2+ rate0.1%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.09
Venue Conceded Mean-0.71
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.25
History Matches-8
Result entropy0.02
Goal Difference Std-0.06
Stability score-1.71
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.02
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.49
Eligible Matches-8
Lead Matches2
Lead Win Rate28.6%
Lead Points Retention0.25
Trailing Matches-11
Non-loss rate11.2%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-8
First Half Goals For Mean0.31
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.21
Second Half Goals For Mean0.21
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.05
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.42
Portability PPG Range1.05
Portability Score-33.90
Rest days-28.13
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest History Matches-6
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.23
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.81
Current Team ELO89.12
Current Opponent ELO-89.12
Current ELO Difference178.2
Expected score0.25
History Matches-8
Residual Mean0.11
Overperformance7.39
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.21

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Yeşilyurt Belediyespor

W
Karaman FK1–6Yeşilyurt Belediyespor1 Nov · away
Pick: Yeşilyurt Belediyespor 46% · hit
W
Güzide Gebzespor0–4Yeşilyurt Belediyespor28 Oct · away
Pick: Güzide Gebzespor 49% · missed
W
Yeşilyurt Belediyespor4–0Silifke Belediyespor24 Oct · home
Pick: Silifke Belediyespor 40% · missed
D
Bitlis Özgüzelderespor1–1Yeşilyurt Belediyespor17 Oct · away
Pick: Yeşilyurt Belediyespor 48% · missed
W
Yeşilyurt Belediyespor3–1Gelecek Siirt7 Oct · home
Pick: Yeşilyurt Belediyespor 69% · hit

Kırşehir Belediyespor

D
Kırşehir Belediyespor3–3Karaköprü Belediyespor1 Nov · home
Pick: Karaköprü Belediyespor 38% · missed
W
Adana Adaletgucu0–1Kırşehir Belediyespor23 Oct · away
Pick: Kırşehir Belediyespor 37% · hit
W
Kırşehir Belediyespor4–2Niğde Belediyesispor18 Oct · home
Pick: Niğde Belediyesispor 41% · missed
L
Mazıdağı Fosfatspor1–0Kırşehir Belediyespor7 Oct · away
Pick: Mazıdağı Fosfatspor 52% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Yeşilyurt Belediyespor and Kırşehir Belediyespor meet in 3. Lig - Group 3 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 10:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Yeşilyurt Belediyespor win 50.6%, draw 22.0%, Kırşehir Belediyespor win 27.4%. The pick is Yeşilyurt Belediyespor win. Over 2.5 goals: 55.2%. Both teams to score: 53.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.