ScoreProb
Serie C - Girone B Italy Girone B - 13 2026

Ostia Mare vs Spezia

Ostia Mare Home · Elo 1,604
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Spezia Away · Elo 1,456
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Ostia Mare win
Ostia Mare winPick
42.0%
Draw
25.1%
Spezia win
32.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes53.1%
No46.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.552.6%
Under 2.547.4%

How much we know

Ostia Mare history54 matches
Spezia history63 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 13:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (42.0%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Ostia Mare are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Ostia Mare are rated 148 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,604 against 1,456. On rating alone Ostia Mare would be expected to take 70% of the points on offer.

  • Ostia Mare score more

    1.65 goals a game over 54 matches for Ostia Mare, against 1.30 over 63 for Spezia.

  • Ostia Mare concede fewer

    Ostia Mare concede 1.04 a game, Spezia 1.41.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    52% of Ostia Mare matches, against 46% for Spezia. The model puts this match at 53% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Ostia Mare
Spezia
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1603.9
ELO
1455.6
54
ELO · Matches
63
1603.9
Current Team ELO
1455.6
1455.6
Current Opponent ELO
1603.9
148.3
Current ELO Difference
-148.3
0.70
Expected score
0.30
54
History Matches
63
0.09
Residual Mean
-0.03
56.79
Overperformance
47.51
-0.17
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.01
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
1.40
0.80
Goals for per game
1.80
2.00
Goals against per game
1.20
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
1.00
0.90
Goals for per game
1.90
1.80
Goals against per game
1.90
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.90
1.04
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.70
1.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.90
1.25
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.04
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.92
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.24
Overall performance9 signals
90
54
Matches
63
1.96
PPG
1.11
57.4%
Win rate
25.4%
24.1%
Draw rate
34.9%
18.5%
Loss rate
39.7%
70.4%
Over 1.5 rate
79.4%
51.9%
Over 2.5 rate
46.0%
35.2%
Over 3.5 rate
31.7%
1.88
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.53
Venue performance10 signals
100
27
Matches
31
1.96
PPG
0.94
55.6%
Win rate
16.1%
29.6%
Draw rate
45.2%
14.8%
Loss rate
38.7%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
77.4%
48.1%
Over 2.5 rate
45.2%
29.6%
Over 3.5 rate
32.3%
1.93
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.42
27
History Matches
31
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.65
Goals for per game
1.30
79.6%
Scoring rate
74.6%
50.0%
BTTS rate
61.9%
1.70
Goals for per game
1.13
74.1%
Scoring rate
74.2%
44.4%
BTTS rate
61.3%
0.00
Goals for per game
1.00
0.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
54
History Matches
63
1.65
Goals Mean
1.30
1.38
Goals Std
1.19
79.6%
Scored 1+ rate
74.6%
48.1%
Scored 2+ rate
34.9%
24.1%
Scored 3+ rate
11.1%
1.70
Venue Goals Mean
1.13
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.04
Goals against per game
1.41
63.0%
Conceding rate
81.0%
0.81
Goals against per game
1.45
59.3%
Conceding rate
77.4%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
54
History Matches
63
1.04
Conceded Mean
1.41
1.12
Conceded Std
1.00
24.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
44.4%
9.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
12.7%
0.81
Venue Conceded Mean
1.45
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
37.0%
Clean-sheet rate
19.0%
20.4%
Failed-to-score rate
25.4%
40.7%
Clean-sheet rate
22.6%
25.9%
Failed-to-score rate
25.8%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
100.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
37.0%
Clean-sheet rate
19.0%
20.4%
Failed-to-score rate
25.4%
40.7%
Clean-sheet rate
22.6%
25.9%
Failed-to-score rate
25.8%
37.0%
Clean-sheet rate
19.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
54
History Matches
63
0.89
Result entropy
0.99
1.88
Goal Difference Std
1.53
11.37
Stability score
1.49
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
54
Eligible Matches
63
20
Lead Matches
11
95.0%
Lead Win Rate
54.5%
0.97
Lead Points Retention
0.70
9
Trailing Matches
22
33.3%
Non-loss rate
27.3%
11.1%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
54
Halftime Coverage Matches
63
0.70
First Half Goals For Mean
0.59
0.44
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.76
0.94
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.71
0.59
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.65
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
75.77
Rest days
75.77
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
3
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
37
Normal Rest History Matches
38
2.11
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.11
14
Long Rest History Matches
21
1.50
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.19
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
0.00
PPG
1.00
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
100.0%
100.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
0.00
Current Competition PPG
1.00
-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
6
Competition Season Count
7
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.34
Portability PPG Std
0.28
0.68
Portability PPG Range
0.55
59.50
Portability Score
64.41
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
54
Clean History Matches
63
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO148.3
PPG0.85
GF0.35
GA-0.38
PPG-1.00
PPG1.03
PPG-0.60
PPG0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-9
Clean-sheet rate18.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.05
History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate18.2%
Failed-to-score rate0.1%
History Matches-9
Goals Mean0.35
Goals Std0.19
Scored 1+ rate5.0%
Scored 2+ rate13.2%
Scored 3+ rate13.0%
Venue Goals Mean0.57
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.66
History Matches-9
Conceded Mean-0.38
Conceded Std0.12
Clean-sheet rate18.0%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.20
Conceded 3+ rate-0.03
Venue Conceded Mean-0.64
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.20
History Matches-9
Result entropy-0.10
Goal Difference Std0.35
Stability score9.88
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.32
Eligible Matches-9
Lead Matches9
Lead Win Rate40.5%
Lead Points Retention0.27
Trailing Matches-13
Non-loss rate6.1%
Trailing Win Rate11.1%
Halftime Coverage Matches-9
First Half Goals For Mean0.12
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.32
Second Half Goals For Mean0.23
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.06
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.00
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.06
Portability PPG Range0.13
Portability Score-4.91
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match2.00
Normal Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest Points Per Match1.00
Long Rest History Matches-7
Long Rest Points Per Match0.31
Current Team ELO148.3
Current Opponent ELO-148.3
Current ELO Difference296.5
Expected score0.40
History Matches-9
Residual Mean0.13
Overperformance9.28
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.16

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Ostia Mare

L
Livorno1–0Ostia Mare1 Nov · away
Pick: Livorno 59% · hit
L
Ostia Mare1–2Vado23 Oct · home
Pick: Vado 44% · hit
L
Pescara2–0Ostia Mare18 Oct · away
Pick: Pescara 56% · hit
D
Latina1–1Ostia Mare4 Oct · away
Pick: Latina 46% · missed
L
Ostia Mare1–2Grosseto29 Aug · home
Pick: Ostia Mare 39% · missed

Spezia

W
Spezia2–1Atalanta II1 Nov · home
Pick: Spezia 47% · hit
W
Spezia2–1Livorno28 Oct · home
Pick: Spezia 50% · hit
D
Spezia1–1Latina24 Oct · home
Pick: Spezia 40% · missed
W
Ravenna0–1Spezia18 Oct · away
Pick: Ravenna 57% · missed
W
Reggiana0–1Spezia4 Oct · away
Pick: Reggiana 37% · missed

About this match

Ostia Mare and Spezia meet in Serie C - Girone B on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 13:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Ostia Mare win 42.0%, draw 25.1%, Spezia win 32.9%. The pick is Ostia Mare win. Over 2.5 goals: 52.6%. Both teams to score: 53.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.