ScoreProb
Liga MX Femenil Mexico Round 14 2026

Pachuca W vs Puebla W

Pachuca W Home · Elo 1,636
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Puebla W Away · Elo 1,325
Estadio Miguel Hidalgo, Pachuca de Soto Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Pachuca W win
Pachuca W winPick
92.4%
Draw
4.8%
Puebla W win
2.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes39.7%
No60.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.583.6%
Under 2.516.4%

How much we know

Pachuca W history65 matches
Puebla W history43 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 14 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 23:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 80%+ band (92.4%). Picks in that band won 83.3% of the time, and the model said 84.5% on average, over 162 matches. This band has few matches, so treat the figures with care.

Why Pachuca W are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Pachuca W are rated 311 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,636 against 1,325. On rating alone Pachuca W would be expected to take 86% of the points on offer.

  • Pachuca W score far more

    2.49 goals a game over 65 matches for Pachuca W, against 0.58 over 43 for Puebla W.

  • Pachuca W concede fewer

    Pachuca W concede 1.00 a game, Puebla W 2.91.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    65% of Pachuca W matches, against 70% for Puebla W. The model puts this match at 84% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Pachuca W
Puebla W
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1636.3
ELO
1325.4
65
ELO · Matches
43
1636.3
Current Team ELO
1325.4
1325.4
Current Opponent ELO
1636.3
310.9
Current ELO Difference
-310.9
0.86
Expected score
0.14
65
History Matches
43
0.10
Residual Mean
-0.18
57.93
Overperformance
37.52
-0.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.05
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
0.60
2.00
Goals for per game
1.40
0.80
Goals against per game
4.80
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.60
PPG
0.50
1.60
Goals for per game
0.90
1.10
Goals against per game
3.50
50.0%
Win rate
10.0%
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.90
1.11
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.04
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
3.50
1.14
Recent 10 Conceded Std
2.11
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
1.86
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.46
Overall performance9 signals
90
65
Matches
43
2.00
PPG
0.42
60.0%
Win rate
9.3%
20.0%
Draw rate
14.0%
20.0%
Loss rate
76.7%
84.6%
Over 1.5 rate
88.4%
64.6%
Over 2.5 rate
69.8%
44.6%
Over 3.5 rate
41.9%
2.49
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.25
Venue performance10 signals
100
33
Matches
18
2.33
PPG
0.22
72.7%
Win rate
0.0%
15.2%
Draw rate
22.2%
12.1%
Loss rate
77.8%
90.9%
Over 1.5 rate
88.9%
75.8%
Over 2.5 rate
61.1%
57.6%
Over 3.5 rate
44.4%
2.44
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.40
33
History Matches
18
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.49
Goals for per game
0.58
84.6%
Scoring rate
39.5%
50.8%
BTTS rate
37.2%
2.94
Goals for per game
0.28
90.9%
Scoring rate
22.2%
48.5%
BTTS rate
22.2%
1.75
Goals for per game
1.00
75.0%
Scoring rate
75.0%
75.0%
BTTS rate
75.0%
65
History Matches
43
2.49
Goals Mean
0.58
1.97
Goals Std
0.81
84.6%
Scored 1+ rate
39.5%
66.2%
Scored 2+ rate
16.3%
41.5%
Scored 3+ rate
2.3%
2.94
Venue Goals Mean
0.28
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.00
Goals against per game
2.91
63.1%
Conceding rate
93.0%
0.94
Goals against per game
3.28
54.5%
Conceding rate
94.4%
1.00
Goals against per game
5.50
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
65
History Matches
43
1.00
Conceded Mean
2.91
1.08
Conceded Std
1.90
23.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
76.7%
7.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
51.2%
0.94
Venue Conceded Mean
3.28
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
36.9%
Clean-sheet rate
7.0%
15.4%
Failed-to-score rate
60.5%
45.5%
Clean-sheet rate
5.6%
9.1%
Failed-to-score rate
77.8%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
36.9%
Clean-sheet rate
7.0%
15.4%
Failed-to-score rate
60.5%
45.5%
Clean-sheet rate
5.6%
9.1%
Failed-to-score rate
77.8%
36.9%
Clean-sheet rate
7.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
65
History Matches
43
0.86
Result entropy
0.64
2.49
Goal Difference Std
2.25
13.50
Stability score
36.39
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
65
Eligible Matches
43
33
Lead Matches
6
93.9%
Lead Win Rate
33.3%
0.96
Lead Points Retention
0.44
17
Trailing Matches
25
41.2%
Non-loss rate
4.0%
11.8%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
65
Halftime Coverage Matches
43
1.20
First Half Goals For Mean
0.30
0.52
First Half Goals Against Mean
1.49
1.29
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.28
0.48
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.42
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
75.04
Rest days
75.21
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
7
Short Rest History Matches
0
1.57
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
40
Normal Rest History Matches
26
2.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.54
17
Long Rest History Matches
16
2.12
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.25
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
1.75
PPG
0.00
50.0%
Win rate
0.0%
25.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
25.0%
Loss rate
100.0%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
1.30
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.06
4
Current Competition Matches
4
1.75
Current Competition PPG
0.00
0.75
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-4.50
4
Competition Season Count
3
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.18
Portability PPG Std
0.24
0.46
Portability PPG Range
0.56
73.98
Portability Score
67.72
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
65
Clean History Matches
43
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO310.9
PPG1.58
GF1.91
GA-1.91
PPG1.75
PPG2.11
PPG1.40
PPG1.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches22
Clean-sheet rate29.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.45
History Matches15
Clean-sheet rate39.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.69
History Matches22
Goals Mean1.91
Goals Std1.16
Scored 1+ rate45.1%
Scored 2+ rate49.9%
Scored 3+ rate39.2%
Venue Goals Mean2.66
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std0.07
History Matches22
Conceded Mean-1.91
Conceded Std-0.82
Clean-sheet rate29.9%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.54
Conceded 3+ rate-0.43
Venue Conceded Mean-2.34
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-2.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.97
History Matches22
Result entropy0.23
Goal Difference Std0.24
Stability score-22.88
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.60
Eligible Matches22
Lead Matches27
Lead Win Rate60.6%
Lead Points Retention0.52
Trailing Matches-8
Non-loss rate37.2%
Trailing Win Rate11.8%
Halftime Coverage Matches22
First Half Goals For Mean0.90
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.97
Second Half Goals For Mean1.01
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.94
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.75
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean5.25
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std-0.06
Portability PPG Range-0.09
Portability Score6.26
Rest days-0.17
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches7
Normal Rest History Matches14
Normal Rest Points Per Match1.46
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match1.87
Current Team ELO310.9
Current Opponent ELO-310.9
Current ELO Difference621.8
Expected score0.71
History Matches22
Residual Mean0.29
Overperformance20.41
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.02

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Pachuca W

W
Pachuca W5–0Necaxa W24 Oct · home
Pick: Pachuca W 91% · hit
L
América W2–1Pachuca W19 Oct · away
Pick: América W 62% · hit
L
Pachuca W1–2Toluca W5 Oct · home
Pick: Pachuca W 53% · missed
L
Tigres UANL W2–0Pachuca W30 Aug · away
Pick: Tigres UANL W 55% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Puebla W

L
Puebla W1–2Juárez W1 Nov · home
Pick: Juárez W 85% · hit
L
Atlas W2–1Puebla W26 Oct · away
Pick: Atlas W 84% · hit
D
Puebla W1–1Tijuana W17 Oct · home
Pick: Tijuana W 81% · missed
W
Puebla W4–1Necaxa W30 Aug · home
Pick: Necaxa W 46% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Pachuca W and Puebla W meet in Liga MX Femenil on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 23:00 UTC. The match is played at Estadio Miguel Hidalgo, Pachuca de Soto. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Pachuca W win 92.4%, draw 4.8%, Puebla W win 2.8%. The pick is Pachuca W win. Over 2.5 goals: 83.6%. Both teams to score: 39.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.