ScoreProb
Liga MX Femenil Mexico Round 14 2026

Cruz Azul W vs León W

Cruz Azul W Home · Elo 1,554
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
León W Away · Elo 1,474
Estadio Centenario, Cuernavaca Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Cruz Azul W win
Cruz Azul W winPick
42.1%
Draw
16.3%
León W win
41.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes64.0%
No36.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.574.4%
Under 2.525.6%

How much we know

Cruz Azul W history46 matches
León W history35 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 16 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 01:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (42.1%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Cruz Azul W are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Cruz Azul W are rated 80 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,554 against 1,474. On rating alone Cruz Azul W would be expected to take 61% of the points on offer.

  • Cruz Azul W score more

    2.28 goals a game over 46 matches for Cruz Azul W, against 1.63 over 35 for León W.

  • Cruz Azul W concede fewer

    Cruz Azul W concede 1.46 a game, León W 1.91.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    74% of Cruz Azul W matches, against 69% for León W. The model puts this match at 74% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Cruz Azul W
León W
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1554.5
ELO
1474.2
46
ELO · Matches
35
1554.5
Current Team ELO
1474.2
1474.2
Current Opponent ELO
1554.5
80.27
Current ELO Difference
-80.27
0.61
Expected score
0.39
46
History Matches
35
0.08
Residual Mean
-0.05
55.67
Overperformance
46.86
-0.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.15
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
1.20
1.20
Goals for per game
2.60
3.80
Goals against per game
2.40
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
0.90
1.50
Goals for per game
2.20
2.40
Goals against per game
2.30
40.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.20
1.36
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.60
2.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.30
2.84
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.35
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.56
3.78
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.97
Overall performance9 signals
90
46
Matches
35
1.76
PPG
1.26
52.2%
Win rate
37.1%
19.6%
Draw rate
14.3%
28.3%
Loss rate
48.6%
89.1%
Over 1.5 rate
82.9%
73.9%
Over 2.5 rate
68.6%
52.2%
Over 3.5 rate
48.6%
2.74
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.42
Venue performance10 signals
100
29
Matches
20
1.76
PPG
1.40
51.7%
Win rate
45.0%
20.7%
Draw rate
5.0%
27.6%
Loss rate
50.0%
86.2%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
72.4%
Over 2.5 rate
70.0%
44.8%
Over 3.5 rate
45.0%
2.02
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.44
29
History Matches
20
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.28
Goals for per game
1.63
87.0%
Scoring rate
71.4%
56.5%
BTTS rate
62.9%
2.10
Goals for per game
1.70
86.2%
Scoring rate
70.0%
58.6%
BTTS rate
65.0%
1.50
Goals for per game
2.25
50.0%
Scoring rate
75.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
75.0%
46
History Matches
35
2.28
Goals Mean
1.63
1.66
Goals Std
1.48
87.0%
Scored 1+ rate
71.4%
56.5%
Scored 2+ rate
45.7%
41.3%
Scored 3+ rate
28.6%
2.10
Venue Goals Mean
1.70
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.46
Goals against per game
1.91
65.2%
Conceding rate
85.7%
1.17
Goals against per game
2.10
65.5%
Conceding rate
90.0%
3.75
Goals against per game
1.75
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
46
History Matches
35
1.46
Conceded Mean
1.91
1.77
Conceded Std
1.73
39.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
54.3%
19.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
20.0%
1.17
Venue Conceded Mean
2.10
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
34.8%
Clean-sheet rate
14.3%
13.0%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
34.5%
Clean-sheet rate
10.0%
13.8%
Failed-to-score rate
30.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
34.8%
Clean-sheet rate
14.3%
13.0%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
34.5%
Clean-sheet rate
10.0%
13.8%
Failed-to-score rate
30.0%
34.8%
Clean-sheet rate
14.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
46
History Matches
35
0.92
Result entropy
0.91
2.74
Goal Difference Std
2.42
7.54
Stability score
9.29
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
46
Eligible Matches
35
21
Lead Matches
13
90.5%
Lead Win Rate
69.2%
0.92
Lead Points Retention
0.72
11
Trailing Matches
11
27.3%
Non-loss rate
9.1%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
46
Halftime Coverage Matches
35
1.13
First Half Goals For Mean
0.69
0.65
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.74
1.15
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.94
0.80
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.17
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.04
Rest days
76.92
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
1
1.33
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
23
Normal Rest History Matches
21
1.78
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.33
19
Long Rest History Matches
12
1.74
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.33
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
1.50
PPG
1.50
50.0%
Win rate
50.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
75.0%
75.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
4.92
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.66
4
Current Competition Matches
4
1.50
Current Competition PPG
1.50
-2.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.50
3
Competition Season Count
3
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.13
Portability PPG Std
0.16
0.29
Portability PPG Range
0.36
78.94
Portability Score
75.76
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
46
Clean History Matches
35
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO80.27
PPG0.50
GF0.65
GA-0.46
PPG0.00
PPG0.36
PPG0.00
PPG0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches11
Clean-sheet rate20.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.16
History Matches9
Clean-sheet rate24.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.16
History Matches11
Goals Mean0.65
Goals Std0.19
Scored 1+ rate15.5%
Scored 2+ rate10.8%
Scored 3+ rate12.7%
Venue Goals Mean0.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.24
History Matches11
Conceded Mean-0.46
Conceded Std0.04
Clean-sheet rate20.5%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.15
Conceded 3+ rate0.00
Venue Conceded Mean-0.93
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std1.49
History Matches11
Result entropy0.02
Goal Difference Std0.32
Stability score-1.74
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.40
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.81
Eligible Matches11
Lead Matches8
Lead Win Rate21.2%
Lead Points Retention0.20
Trailing Matches0
Non-loss rate18.2%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches11
First Half Goals For Mean0.44
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.09
Second Half Goals For Mean0.21
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.37
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-2.75
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.03
Portability PPG Range-0.08
Portability Score3.18
Rest days-0.88
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Short Rest Points Per Match1.33
Normal Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.45
Long Rest History Matches7
Long Rest Points Per Match0.40
Current Team ELO80.27
Current Opponent ELO-80.27
Current ELO Difference160.5
Expected score0.23
History Matches11
Residual Mean0.13
Overperformance8.81
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.09

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Cruz Azul W

L
Cruz Azul W1–2Toluca W25 Oct · home
Pick: Toluca W 51% · hit
L
Monterrey W1–0Cruz Azul W18 Oct · away
Pick: Monterrey W 73% · hit
W
Necaxa W0–2Cruz Azul W4 Oct · away
Pick: Cruz Azul W 69% · hit
L
Juárez W1–0Cruz Azul W30 Aug · away
Pick: Juárez W 55% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

León W

W
León W1–0Atlético San Luis W3 Nov · home
Pick: León W 51% · hit
W
Santos Laguna W1–2León W27 Oct · away
Pick: León W 51% · hit
D
Atlas W1–1León W23 Oct · away
Pick: Atlas W 43% · missed
W
León W2–0Atlante W20 Oct · home
Pick: León W 64% · hit
L
Toluca W1–0León W29 Aug · away
Pick: Toluca W 65% · hit

About this match

Cruz Azul W and León W meet in Liga MX Femenil on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 01:00 UTC. The match is played at Estadio Centenario, Cuernavaca. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Cruz Azul W win 42.1%, draw 16.3%, León W win 41.6%. The pick is Cruz Azul W win. Over 2.5 goals: 74.4%. Both teams to score: 64.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.