ScoreProb
Liga 3 Portugal Round 9 2026

Pacos Ferreira vs Trofense

Pacos Ferreira Home · Elo 1,440
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Trofense Away · Elo 1,473
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Pacos Ferreira win
Pacos Ferreira winPick
38.9%
Draw
25.4%
Trofense win
35.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes44.4%
No55.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.541.3%
Under 2.558.7%

How much we know

Pacos Ferreira history62 matches
Trofense history49 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 11 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 20:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (38.9%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Pacos Ferreira are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Trofense are rated 33 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,473 against 1,440. On rating alone Trofense would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • Trofense score more

    0.89 goals a game over 62 matches for Pacos Ferreira, against 1.00 over 49 for Trofense.

  • Trofense concede fewer

    Pacos Ferreira concede 1.31 a game, Trofense 1.00.

  • Pacos Ferreira games more often go over 2.5 goals

    44% of Pacos Ferreira matches, against 29% for Trofense. The model puts this match at 41% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Pacos Ferreira
Trofense
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1439.9
ELO
1473.0
62
ELO · Matches
49
1439.9
Current Team ELO
1473.0
1473.0
Current Opponent ELO
1439.9
-33.02
Current ELO Difference
33.02
0.45
Expected score
0.55
62
History Matches
49
-0.04
Residual Mean
-0.02
46.66
Overperformance
48.51
-0.16
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.09
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.20
PPG
0.80
0.40
Goals for per game
0.40
1.80
Goals against per game
1.40
0.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
0.80
PPG
0.90
1.00
Goals for per game
0.40
1.80
Goals against per game
1.00
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.40
1.18
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.49
1.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
1.08
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.89
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.25
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.20
Overall performance9 signals
90
62
Matches
49
1.06
PPG
1.20
25.8%
Win rate
30.6%
29.0%
Draw rate
28.6%
45.2%
Loss rate
40.8%
62.9%
Over 1.5 rate
59.2%
43.5%
Over 2.5 rate
28.6%
16.1%
Over 3.5 rate
10.2%
1.41
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.48
Venue performance10 signals
100
32
Matches
23
1.19
PPG
1.26
28.1%
Win rate
30.4%
34.4%
Draw rate
34.8%
37.5%
Loss rate
34.8%
59.4%
Over 1.5 rate
56.5%
46.9%
Over 2.5 rate
26.1%
21.9%
Over 3.5 rate
8.7%
1.45
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.21
32
History Matches
23
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
0.89
Goals for per game
1.00
54.8%
Scoring rate
57.1%
43.5%
BTTS rate
40.8%
1.03
Goals for per game
0.83
59.4%
Scoring rate
56.5%
50.0%
BTTS rate
43.5%
0.67
Goals for per game
0.33
66.7%
Scoring rate
33.3%
66.7%
BTTS rate
0.0%
62
History Matches
49
0.89
Goals Mean
1.00
1.02
Goals Std
1.23
54.8%
Scored 1+ rate
57.1%
24.2%
Scored 2+ rate
24.5%
6.5%
Scored 3+ rate
8.2%
1.03
Venue Goals Mean
0.83
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.31
Goals against per game
1.00
69.4%
Conceding rate
73.5%
1.25
Goals against per game
1.04
65.6%
Conceding rate
73.9%
2.33
Goals against per game
1.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
66.7%
62
History Matches
49
1.31
Conceded Mean
1.00
1.16
Conceded Std
0.78
41.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
22.4%
14.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
4.1%
1.25
Venue Conceded Mean
1.04
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
30.6%
Clean-sheet rate
26.5%
45.2%
Failed-to-score rate
42.9%
34.4%
Clean-sheet rate
26.1%
40.6%
Failed-to-score rate
43.5%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
66.7%
30.6%
Clean-sheet rate
26.5%
45.2%
Failed-to-score rate
42.9%
34.4%
Clean-sheet rate
26.1%
40.6%
Failed-to-score rate
43.5%
30.6%
Clean-sheet rate
26.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
62
History Matches
49
0.97
Result entropy
0.99
1.41
Goal Difference Std
1.48
2.82
Stability score
1.14
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
59
Eligible Matches
49
8
Lead Matches
16
50.0%
Lead Win Rate
75.0%
0.54
Lead Points Retention
0.83
20
Trailing Matches
15
15.0%
Non-loss rate
13.3%
5.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
59
Halftime Coverage Matches
49
0.36
First Half Goals For Mean
0.55
0.71
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.51
0.53
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.45
0.61
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.49
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
78.02
Rest days
78.17
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
0
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
28
Normal Rest History Matches
19
1.07
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.58
31
Long Rest History Matches
29
1.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
0.00
PPG
1.00
0.0%
Win rate
33.3%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
100.0%
Loss rate
66.7%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
33.3%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
0.94
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.25
3
Current Competition Matches
3
0.00
Current Competition PPG
1.00
-1.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.67
6
Competition Season Count
5
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.65
Portability PPG Std
0.09
1.80
Portability PPG Range
0.19
43.55
Portability Score
85.17
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
62
Clean History Matches
49
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-33.02
PPG-0.14
GF-0.11
GA0.31
PPG-1.00
PPG-0.07
PPG-0.60
PPG-0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches13
Clean-sheet rate4.1%
Failed-to-score rate2.3%
History Matches9
Clean-sheet rate8.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.03
History Matches13
Goals Mean-0.11
Goals Std-0.21
Scored 1+ rate-0.02
Scored 2+ rate0.00
Scored 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Goals Mean0.21
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std0.69
History Matches13
Conceded Mean0.31
Conceded Std0.38
Clean-sheet rate4.1%
Conceded 2+ rate19.5%
Conceded 3+ rate10.4%
Venue Conceded Mean0.21
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.18
History Matches13
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std-0.08
Stability score1.68
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.07
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.05
Eligible Matches10
Lead Matches-8
Lead Win Rate-0.25
Lead Points Retention-0.29
Trailing Matches5
Non-loss rate1.7%
Trailing Win Rate5.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches10
First Half Goals For Mean-0.20
First Half Goals Against Mean0.20
Second Half Goals For Mean0.08
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.12
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.00
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.56
Portability PPG Range1.61
Portability Score-41.61
Rest days-0.15
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest History Matches9
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.51
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match0.00
Current Team ELO-33.02
Current Opponent ELO33.02
Current ELO Difference-66.03
Expected score-0.09
History Matches13
Residual Mean-0.02
Overperformance-1.84
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.07

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Pacos Ferreira

L
Fafe3–1Pacos Ferreira30 Oct · away
Pick: Fafe 60% · hit
W
Pacos Ferreira1–0Leça23 Oct · home
Pick: Leça 46% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Trofense

L
Trofense0–2AD Marco 0931 Oct · home
Pick: AD Marco 09 38% · hit
L
Paredes4–0Trofense24 Oct · away
Pick: Paredes 56% · hit
L
Varzim5–1Trofense29 Aug · away
Pick: Varzim 51% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Pacos Ferreira and Trofense meet in Liga 3 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 20:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Pacos Ferreira win 38.9%, draw 25.4%, Trofense win 35.7%. The pick is Pacos Ferreira win. Over 2.5 goals: 41.3%. Both teams to score: 44.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.