ScoreProb
Pro League A Uzbekistan Round 26 2026

Pakhtakor II vs Kattaqurgon

Pakhtakor II Home · Elo 1,415
Mon 9 Nov
UTC
Not started
Kattaqurgon Away · Elo 1,531
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 3 Nov, 08:36 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Kattaqurgon win
Pakhtakor II win
10.2%
Draw
13.2%
Kattaqurgon winPick
76.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes45.0%
No55.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.551.4%
Under 2.548.6%

How much we know

Pakhtakor II history15 matches
Kattaqurgon history16 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 0 h ahead
    3 Nov · 08:36 UTC
  2. Re-published 4 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 08:08 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    9 Nov · 09:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 70–79% band (76.6%). Picks in that band won 76.2% of the time, and the model said 73.9% on average, over 583 matches.

Why Kattaqurgon are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Kattaqurgon are rated 116 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,531 against 1,415. On rating alone Kattaqurgon would be expected to take 66% of the points on offer.

  • Kattaqurgon score far more

    0.67 goals a game over 15 matches for Pakhtakor II, against 1.31 over 16 for Kattaqurgon.

  • Kattaqurgon concede fewer

    Pakhtakor II concede 2.47 a game, Kattaqurgon 0.81.

  • Pakhtakor II games more often go over 2.5 goals

    60% of Pakhtakor II matches, against 25% for Kattaqurgon. The model puts this match at 51% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Pakhtakor II
Kattaqurgon
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1414.9
ELO
1531.2
15
ELO · Matches
16
1414.9
Current Team ELO
1531.2
1531.2
Current Opponent ELO
1414.9
-116.3
Current ELO Difference
116.3
0.34
Expected score
0.66
15
History Matches
16
-0.28
Residual Mean
0.09
38.21
Overperformance
54.18
-0.30
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.03
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
1.80
0.80
Goals for per game
1.60
2.80
Goals against per game
1.20
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
0.30
PPG
1.70
0.50
Goals for per game
1.40
2.50
Goals against per game
1.00
10.0%
Win rate
50.0%
0.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
0.67
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.02
2.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.18
0.30
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.34
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.62
Overall performance9 signals
90
15
Matches
16
0.47
PPG
1.88
13.3%
Win rate
56.3%
6.7%
Draw rate
18.8%
80.0%
Loss rate
25.0%
86.7%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
60.0%
Over 2.5 rate
25.0%
26.7%
Over 3.5 rate
6.3%
1.80
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.54
Venue performance10 signals
100
8
Matches
8
0.38
PPG
1.75
12.5%
Win rate
50.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
87.5%
Loss rate
25.0%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
62.5%
75.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.73
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.41
8
History Matches
8
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
0.67
Goals for per game
1.31
40.0%
Scoring rate
75.0%
40.0%
BTTS rate
31.3%
0.50
Goals for per game
1.00
37.5%
Scoring rate
62.5%
37.5%
BTTS rate
12.5%
0.67
Goals for per game
1.31
40.0%
Scoring rate
75.0%
40.0%
BTTS rate
31.3%
15
History Matches
16
0.67
Goals Mean
1.31
1.07
Goals Std
0.92
40.0%
Scored 1+ rate
75.0%
13.3%
Scored 2+ rate
50.0%
6.7%
Scored 3+ rate
6.3%
0.50
Venue Goals Mean
1.00
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
2.47
Goals against per game
0.81
100.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
2.50
Goals against per game
0.50
100.0%
Conceding rate
37.5%
2.47
Goals against per game
0.81
100.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
15
History Matches
16
2.47
Conceded Mean
0.81
1.31
Conceded Std
1.07
73.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
18.8%
40.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
6.3%
2.50
Venue Conceded Mean
0.50
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
60.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
62.5%
62.5%
Failed-to-score rate
37.5%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
60.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
60.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
62.5%
62.5%
Failed-to-score rate
37.5%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
15
History Matches
16
0.57
Result entropy
0.90
1.80
Goal Difference Std
1.54
42.86
Stability score
10.42
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
15
Eligible Matches
16
1
Lead Matches
5
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
80.0%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
0.80
6
Trailing Matches
3
0.0%
Non-loss rate
33.3%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
15
Halftime Coverage Matches
16
0.27
First Half Goals For Mean
0.50
0.80
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.44
0.40
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.81
1.67
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.38
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
85.79
Rest days
79.79
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
10
Normal Rest History Matches
13
0.40
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.77
4
Long Rest History Matches
2
0.75
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Portability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
15
Matches
16
0.47
PPG
1.88
13.3%
Win rate
56.3%
6.7%
Draw rate
18.8%
80.0%
Loss rate
25.0%
86.7%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
60.0%
Over 2.5 rate
25.0%
26.7%
Over 3.5 rate
6.3%
1.80
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.54
15
Current Competition Matches
16
0.47
Current Competition PPG
1.88
-1.80
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.50
1
Competition Season Count
1
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
15
Clean History Matches
16
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scorePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-116.3
PPG-1.41
GF-0.65
GA1.65
PPG-1.41
PPG-1.38
PPG-1.20
PPG-1.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate-0.50
Failed-to-score rate35.0%
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate-0.63
Failed-to-score rate25.0%
History Matches-1
Goals Mean-0.65
Goals Std0.16
Scored 1+ rate-0.35
Scored 2+ rate-0.37
Scored 3+ rate0.4%
Venue Goals Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.35
History Matches-1
Conceded Mean1.65
Conceded Std0.24
Clean-sheet rate-0.50
Conceded 2+ rate54.6%
Conceded 3+ rate33.8%
Venue Conceded Mean2.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.02
History Matches-1
Result entropy-0.32
Goal Difference Std0.26
Stability score32.44
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.64
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.28
Eligible Matches-1
Lead Matches-4
Lead Win Rate20.0%
Lead Points Retention0.20
Trailing Matches3
Non-loss rate-0.33
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-1
First Half Goals For Mean-0.23
First Half Goals Against Mean0.36
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.41
Second Half Goals Against Mean1.29
Current Competition Matches-1
Current Competition PPG-1.41
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-2.30
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Rest days6.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-3
Normal Rest Points Per Match-1.37
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match-1.25
Current Team ELO-116.3
Current Opponent ELO116.3
Current ELO Difference-232.5
Expected score-0.32
History Matches-1
Residual Mean-0.37
Overperformance-15.97
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.33

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Pakhtakor II

L
Olimpik-Mobiuz3–1Pakhtakor II3 Nov · away
Pick: Olimpik-Mobiuz 84% · hit
L
Pakhtakor II0–3BuxDu25 Oct · home
Pick: Pakhtakor II 39% · missed
W
Respublika FA0–2Pakhtakor II21 Oct · away
Pick: Respublika FA 60% · missed
L
Pakhtakor II1–2Aral13 Oct · home
Pick: Aral 87% · hit
L
Gazalkent3–2Pakhtakor II8 Oct · away
Pick: Gazalkent 76% · hit

Kattaqurgon

L
Kattaqurgon1–2Olimpik-Mobiuz29 Oct · home
Pick: Olimpik-Mobiuz 37% · hit
W
Yaypan0–1Kattaqurgon24 Oct · away
Pick: Kattaqurgon 43% · hit
D
Kattaqurgon4–4Lochin18 Oct · home
Pick: Kattaqurgon 43% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Pakhtakor II and Kattaqurgon meet in Pro League A on Monday 9 November 2026, kickoff 09:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 3 Nov, 08:36 UTC: Pakhtakor II win 10.2%, draw 13.2%, Kattaqurgon win 76.6%. The pick is Kattaqurgon win. Over 2.5 goals: 51.4%. Both teams to score: 45.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.