ScoreProb
Pro League A Uzbekistan Round 26 2026

Shortan vs BuxDu

Shortan Home · Elo 1,489
Mon 9 Nov
UTC
Not started
BuxDu Away · Elo 1,434
Stadion Guzor, Guzar Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 3 Nov, 08:36 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Shortan win
Shortan winPick
66.8%
Draw
18.4%
BuxDu win
14.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes47.9%
No52.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.559.2%
Under 2.540.8%

How much we know

Shortan history48 matches
BuxDu history15 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 0 h ahead
    3 Nov · 08:36 UTC
  2. Re-published 4 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 08:08 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    9 Nov · 09:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (66.8%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why Shortan are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Shortan are rated 56 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,489 against 1,434. On rating alone Shortan would be expected to take 58% of the points on offer.

  • Shortan score more

    1.15 goals a game over 48 matches for Shortan, against 0.87 over 15 for BuxDu.

  • Shortan concede fewer

    Shortan concede 1.63 a game, BuxDu 2.33.

  • BuxDu games more often go over 2.5 goals

    50% of Shortan matches, against 60% for BuxDu. The model puts this match at 59% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Shortan
BuxDu
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1489.0
ELO
1433.5
48
ELO · Matches
15
1489.0
Current Team ELO
1433.5
1433.5
Current Opponent ELO
1489.0
55.52
Current ELO Difference
-55.52
0.58
Expected score
0.42
48
History Matches
15
-0.01
Residual Mean
-0.21
49.38
Overperformance
40.88
0.20
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.09
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
0.60
1.60
Goals for per game
1.20
1.20
Goals against per game
2.80
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.90
PPG
1.00
1.40
Goals for per game
1.10
1.20
Goals against per game
2.10
60.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.10
1.11
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.83
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.10
1.17
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.70
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.54
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.10
Overall performance9 signals
90
48
Matches
15
1.10
PPG
0.67
29.2%
Win rate
20.0%
22.9%
Draw rate
6.7%
47.9%
Loss rate
73.3%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
86.7%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
60.0%
31.3%
Over 3.5 rate
40.0%
1.51
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.89
Venue performance10 signals
100
24
Matches
7
1.33
PPG
0.00
37.5%
Win rate
0.0%
20.8%
Draw rate
0.0%
41.7%
Loss rate
100.0%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
71.4%
54.2%
Over 2.5 rate
57.1%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
28.6%
1.47
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.18
24
History Matches
7
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.15
Goals for per game
0.87
66.7%
Scoring rate
60.0%
52.1%
BTTS rate
46.7%
1.33
Goals for per game
0.14
79.2%
Scoring rate
14.3%
58.3%
BTTS rate
14.3%
1.50
Goals for per game
0.87
87.5%
Scoring rate
60.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
46.7%
48
History Matches
15
1.15
Goals Mean
0.87
1.14
Goals Std
0.81
66.7%
Scored 1+ rate
60.0%
29.2%
Scored 2+ rate
26.7%
12.5%
Scored 3+ rate
0.0%
1.33
Venue Goals Mean
0.14
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.63
Goals against per game
2.33
77.1%
Conceding rate
86.7%
1.54
Goals against per game
2.71
75.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
1.06
Goals against per game
2.33
56.3%
Conceding rate
86.7%
48
History Matches
15
1.63
Conceded Mean
2.33
1.20
Conceded Std
1.53
54.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
60.0%
25.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
53.3%
1.54
Venue Conceded Mean
2.71
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
22.9%
Clean-sheet rate
13.3%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
20.8%
Failed-to-score rate
85.7%
43.8%
Clean-sheet rate
13.3%
12.5%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
22.9%
Clean-sheet rate
13.3%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
20.8%
Failed-to-score rate
85.7%
22.9%
Clean-sheet rate
13.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
48
History Matches
15
0.96
Result entropy
0.66
1.51
Goal Difference Std
1.89
4.47
Stability score
33.56
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
48
Eligible Matches
14
11
Lead Matches
3
72.7%
Lead Win Rate
66.7%
0.79
Lead Points Retention
0.78
16
Trailing Matches
7
12.5%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
6.3%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
48
Halftime Coverage Matches
14
0.52
First Half Goals For Mean
0.29
0.63
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.79
0.63
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.64
1.00
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.57
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
78.88
Rest days
85.83
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
29
Normal Rest History Matches
12
1.45
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.58
18
Long Rest History Matches
2
0.61
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.50
Competition & season17 signals
170
16
Matches
15
2.06
PPG
0.67
62.5%
Win rate
20.0%
18.8%
Draw rate
6.7%
18.8%
Loss rate
73.3%
68.8%
Over 1.5 rate
86.7%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
60.0%
31.3%
Over 3.5 rate
40.0%
1.32
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.89
16
Current Competition Matches
15
2.06
Current Competition PPG
0.67
0.44
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.47
3
Competition Season Count
1
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
0.75
Portability PPG Std
—
1.50
Portability PPG Range
—
40.07
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
48
Clean History Matches
15
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scorePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO55.52
PPG0.44
GF0.28
GA-0.71
PPG1.40
PPG1.33
PPG1.40
PPG0.90
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches33
Clean-sheet rate9.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.07
History Matches17
Clean-sheet rate25.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.65
History Matches33
Goals Mean0.28
Goals Std0.33
Scored 1+ rate6.7%
Scored 2+ rate2.5%
Scored 3+ rate12.5%
Venue Goals Mean1.19
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std0.28
History Matches33
Conceded Mean-0.71
Conceded Std-0.33
Clean-sheet rate9.6%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.06
Conceded 3+ rate-0.28
Venue Conceded Mean-1.17
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.53
History Matches33
Result entropy0.29
Goal Difference Std-0.38
Stability score-29.10
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.56
Eligible Matches34
Lead Matches8
Lead Win Rate6.1%
Lead Points Retention0.01
Trailing Matches9
Non-loss rate12.5%
Trailing Win Rate6.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches34
First Half Goals For Mean0.24
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.16
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.02
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.57
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG1.40
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.90
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Rest days-6.96
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches17
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.86
Long Rest History Matches16
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.89
Current Team ELO55.52
Current Opponent ELO-55.52
Current ELO Difference111.0
Expected score0.16
History Matches33
Residual Mean0.20
Overperformance8.50
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.29

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Shortan

D
Respublika FA0–0Shortan1 Nov · away
Pick: Shortan 43% · missed
W
Shortan1–0Aral27 Oct · home
Pick: Aral 44% · missed
L
Gazalkent2–1Shortan17 Oct · away
Pick: Gazalkent 47% · hit
D
Metalourg1–1Shortan13 Oct · away
Pick: Metalourg 53% · missed
W
Shortan3–1Jayxun7 Oct · home
Pick: Shortan 58% · hit

BuxDu

L
BuxDu2–3Jayxun2 Nov · home
Pick: Jayxun 38% · hit
W
Pakhtakor II0–3BuxDu25 Oct · away
Pick: Pakhtakor II 39% · missed
L
Yaypan2–1BuxDu13 Oct · away
Pick: Yaypan 56% · hit
L
BuxDu2–6Lochin7 Oct · home
Pick: Lochin 50% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Shortan and BuxDu meet in Pro League A on Monday 9 November 2026, kickoff 09:00 UTC. The match is played at Stadion Guzor, Guzar. ScoreProb published its prediction on 3 Nov, 08:36 UTC: Shortan win 66.8%, draw 18.4%, BuxDu win 14.8%. The pick is Shortan win. Over 2.5 goals: 59.2%. Both teams to score: 47.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.