ScoreProb
Pro League A Uzbekistan Round 26 2026

Yaypan vs Lochin

Yaypan Home · Elo 1,471
Mon 9 Nov
UTC
Not started
Lochin Away · Elo 1,511
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 3 Nov, 08:36 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Lochin win
Yaypan win
33.2%
Draw
25.2%
Lochin winPick
41.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes55.9%
No44.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.550.3%
Under 2.549.7%

How much we know

Yaypan history16 matches
Lochin history16 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 0 h ahead
    3 Nov · 08:36 UTC
  2. Re-published 4 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 08:08 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    9 Nov · 09:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (41.6%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Lochin are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Lochin are rated 40 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,511 against 1,471. On rating alone Lochin would be expected to take 56% of the points on offer.

  • Lochin score more

    1.13 goals a game over 16 matches for Yaypan, against 1.44 over 16 for Lochin.

  • Lochin concede fewer

    Yaypan concede 1.75 a game, Lochin 1.38.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    63% of Yaypan matches, against 56% for Lochin. The model puts this match at 50% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 26 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Yaypan
Lochin
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1471.0
ELO
1511.0
16
ELO · Matches
16
1471.0
Current Team ELO
1511.0
1511.0
Current Opponent ELO
1471.0
-39.97
Current ELO Difference
39.97
0.44
Expected score
0.56
16
History Matches
16
-0.10
Residual Mean
0.02
45.49
Overperformance
50.95
-0.10
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.00
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
0.80
0.80
Goals for per game
0.80
1.20
Goals against per game
2.00
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.10
PPG
1.50
0.90
Goals for per game
1.50
1.60
Goals against per game
1.40
30.0%
Win rate
40.0%
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
0.54
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.28
1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
1.74
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.50
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.73
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.21
Overall performance9 signals
90
16
Matches
16
1.13
PPG
1.56
31.3%
Win rate
43.8%
18.8%
Draw rate
25.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
31.3%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
87.5%
62.5%
Over 2.5 rate
56.3%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
31.3%
1.80
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.33
Venue performance10 signals
100
7
Matches
9
1.29
PPG
1.44
42.9%
Win rate
44.4%
0.0%
Draw rate
11.1%
57.1%
Loss rate
44.4%
71.4%
Over 1.5 rate
88.9%
57.1%
Over 2.5 rate
55.6%
14.3%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
2.13
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.63
7
History Matches
9
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.13
Goals for per game
1.44
87.5%
Scoring rate
75.0%
68.8%
BTTS rate
43.8%
1.14
Goals for per game
1.22
85.7%
Scoring rate
66.7%
57.1%
BTTS rate
33.3%
1.13
Goals for per game
1.53
87.5%
Scoring rate
80.0%
68.8%
BTTS rate
46.7%
16
History Matches
16
1.13
Goals Mean
1.44
0.60
Goals Std
1.12
87.5%
Scored 1+ rate
75.0%
25.0%
Scored 2+ rate
50.0%
0.0%
Scored 3+ rate
12.5%
1.14
Venue Goals Mean
1.22
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.75
Goals against per game
1.38
75.0%
Conceding rate
56.3%
1.71
Goals against per game
1.78
71.4%
Conceding rate
55.6%
1.75
Goals against per game
1.13
75.0%
Conceding rate
53.3%
16
History Matches
16
1.75
Conceded Mean
1.38
1.68
Conceded Std
1.62
50.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
43.8%
18.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
12.5%
1.71
Venue Conceded Mean
1.78
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
43.8%
12.5%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
44.4%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
46.7%
12.5%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
43.8%
12.5%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
44.4%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
43.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
16
History Matches
16
0.93
Result entropy
0.98
1.80
Goal Difference Std
2.33
6.80
Stability score
2.45
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
15
Eligible Matches
16
2
Lead Matches
5
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
1.00
4
Trailing Matches
6
0.0%
Non-loss rate
16.7%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
16.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
15
Halftime Coverage Matches
16
0.40
First Half Goals For Mean
0.44
0.67
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.63
0.67
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.00
1.13
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.75
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
75.85
Rest days
85.79
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
9
Normal Rest History Matches
11
1.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.18
6
Long Rest History Matches
4
1.50
Long Rest Points Per Match
3.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Portability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
16
Matches
15
1.13
PPG
1.67
31.3%
Win rate
46.7%
18.8%
Draw rate
26.7%
50.0%
Loss rate
26.7%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
86.7%
62.5%
Over 2.5 rate
53.3%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
26.7%
1.80
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.99
16
Current Competition Matches
15
1.13
Current Competition PPG
1.67
-0.63
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.40
1
Competition Season Count
2
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
16
Clean History Matches
16
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scorePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-39.97
PPG-0.44
GF-0.31
GA0.38
PPG-0.54
PPG-0.16
PPG0.20
PPG-0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate-0.19
Failed-to-score rate-0.13
History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate-0.16
Failed-to-score rate-0.19
History Matches0
Goals Mean-0.31
Goals Std-0.52
Scored 1+ rate12.5%
Scored 2+ rate-0.25
Scored 3+ rate-0.13
Venue Goals Mean-0.08
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.75
History Matches0
Conceded Mean0.38
Conceded Std0.06
Clean-sheet rate-0.19
Conceded 2+ rate6.3%
Conceded 3+ rate6.3%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.06
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.25
History Matches0
Result entropy-0.04
Goal Difference Std-0.53
Stability score4.35
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.48
Eligible Matches-1
Lead Matches-3
Lead Win Rate0.0%
Lead Points Retention0.00
Trailing Matches-2
Non-loss rate-0.17
Trailing Win Rate-0.17
Halftime Coverage Matches-1
First Half Goals For Mean-0.04
First Half Goals Against Mean0.04
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.33
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.38
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG-0.54
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.03
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Rest days-9.94
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.18
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match-1.50
Current Team ELO-39.97
Current Opponent ELO39.97
Current ELO Difference-79.93
Expected score-0.11
History Matches0
Residual Mean-0.12
Overperformance-5.46
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.10

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Yaypan

L
FarDu3–2Yaypan1 Nov · away
Pick: FarDu 62% · hit
L
Yaypan0–1Kattaqurgon24 Oct · home
Pick: Kattaqurgon 43% · hit
L
Olimpik-Mobiuz4–2Yaypan20 Oct · away
Pick: Olimpik-Mobiuz 68% · hit
W
Yaypan2–1BuxDu13 Oct · home
Pick: Yaypan 56% · hit
L
Respublika FA2–1Yaypan8 Oct · away
Pick: Respublika FA 43% · hit

Lochin

D
Lochin1–1Metalourg1 Nov · home
Pick: Metalourg 38% · missed
L
Lochin1–2FarDu26 Oct · home
Pick: Lochin 46% · missed
D
Kattaqurgon4–4Lochin18 Oct · away
Pick: Kattaqurgon 43% · missed
W
Lochin2–1Olimpik-Mobiuz12 Oct · home
Pick: Olimpik-Mobiuz 37% · missed
W
BuxDu2–6Lochin7 Oct · away
Pick: Lochin 50% · hit

About this match

Yaypan and Lochin meet in Pro League A on Monday 9 November 2026, kickoff 09:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 3 Nov, 08:36 UTC: Yaypan win 33.2%, draw 25.2%, Lochin win 41.6%. The pick is Lochin win. Over 2.5 goals: 50.3%. Both teams to score: 55.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.