ScoreProb
Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 Spain Group 8 - 10 2026

Palencia CF vs Bembibre

Palencia CF Home · Elo 1,529
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Bembibre Away · Elo 1,448
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Palencia CF win
Palencia CF winPick
62.0%
Draw
19.8%
Bembibre win
18.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes52.8%
No47.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.554.8%
Under 2.545.2%

How much we know

Palencia CF history55 matches
Bembibre history49 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 7 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 16:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (62.0%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why Palencia CF are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Palencia CF are rated 81 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,529 against 1,448. On rating alone Palencia CF would be expected to take 61% of the points on offer.

  • Palencia CF score more

    1.33 goals a game over 55 matches for Palencia CF, against 1.06 over 49 for Bembibre.

  • Palencia CF concede fewer

    Palencia CF concede 1.20 a game, Bembibre 1.47.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    49% of Palencia CF matches, against 51% for Bembibre. The model puts this match at 55% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 8 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Palencia CF
Bembibre
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1529.1
ELO
1448.0
55
ELO · Matches
49
1529.1
Current Team ELO
1448.0
1448.0
Current Opponent ELO
1529.1
81.09
Current ELO Difference
-81.09
0.61
Expected score
0.39
55
History Matches
49
0.03
Residual Mean
-0.05
51.91
Overperformance
46.46
0.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.00
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.20
1.20
Goals for per game
2.40
1.00
Goals against per game
2.40
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
1.00
1.60
Goals for per game
1.70
1.40
Goals against per game
2.20
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.70
1.11
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.10
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.20
0.92
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.25
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.40
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.91
Overall performance9 signals
90
55
Matches
49
1.40
PPG
1.10
40.0%
Win rate
26.5%
20.0%
Draw rate
30.6%
40.0%
Loss rate
42.9%
72.7%
Over 1.5 rate
65.3%
49.1%
Over 2.5 rate
51.0%
21.8%
Over 3.5 rate
34.7%
1.25
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.66
Venue performance10 signals
100
27
Matches
24
1.52
PPG
0.83
44.4%
Win rate
20.8%
18.5%
Draw rate
20.8%
37.0%
Loss rate
58.3%
77.8%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
51.9%
Over 2.5 rate
58.3%
25.9%
Over 3.5 rate
37.5%
1.25
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.51
27
History Matches
24
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.33
Goals for per game
1.06
78.2%
Scoring rate
65.3%
61.8%
BTTS rate
51.0%
1.52
Goals for per game
0.88
81.5%
Scoring rate
58.3%
66.7%
BTTS rate
50.0%
55
History Matches
49
1.33
Goals Mean
1.06
1.03
Goals Std
1.04
78.2%
Scored 1+ rate
65.3%
38.2%
Scored 2+ rate
28.6%
12.7%
Scored 3+ rate
8.2%
1.52
Venue Goals Mean
0.88
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.20
Goals against per game
1.47
78.2%
Conceding rate
73.5%
1.19
Goals against per game
1.83
81.5%
Conceding rate
79.2%
55
History Matches
49
1.20
Conceded Mean
1.47
0.86
Conceded Std
1.30
34.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
40.8%
7.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
20.4%
1.19
Venue Conceded Mean
1.83
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
21.8%
Clean-sheet rate
26.5%
21.8%
Failed-to-score rate
34.7%
18.5%
Clean-sheet rate
20.8%
18.5%
Failed-to-score rate
41.7%
21.8%
Clean-sheet rate
26.5%
21.8%
Failed-to-score rate
34.7%
18.5%
Clean-sheet rate
20.8%
18.5%
Failed-to-score rate
41.7%
21.8%
Clean-sheet rate
26.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
55
History Matches
49
0.96
Result entropy
0.98
1.25
Goal Difference Std
1.66
3.98
Stability score
1.92
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
55
Eligible Matches
49
12
Lead Matches
12
91.7%
Lead Win Rate
83.3%
0.94
Lead Points Retention
0.89
16
Trailing Matches
20
25.0%
Non-loss rate
30.0%
6.3%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
55
Halftime Coverage Matches
49
0.49
First Half Goals For Mean
0.51
0.56
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.80
0.84
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.55
0.64
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.67
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
92.23
Rest days
182.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
1
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
31
Normal Rest History Matches
26
1.32
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.35
23
Long Rest History Matches
21
1.57
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.76
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.64
Portability PPG Std
0.16
1.28
Portability PPG Range
0.31
43.83
Portability Score
76.19
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
55
Clean History Matches
49
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO81.09
PPG0.30
GF0.27
GA-0.27
PPG0.69
PPG0.20
PPG0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches6
Clean-sheet rate-0.05
Failed-to-score rate-0.13
History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Failed-to-score rate-0.23
History Matches6
Goals Mean0.27
Goals Std-0.01
Scored 1+ rate12.9%
Scored 2+ rate9.6%
Scored 3+ rate4.6%
Venue Goals Mean0.64
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.01
History Matches6
Conceded Mean-0.27
Conceded Std-0.43
Clean-sheet rate-0.05
Conceded 2+ rate-0.06
Conceded 3+ rate-0.13
Venue Conceded Mean-0.65
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.33
History Matches6
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std-0.41
Stability score2.06
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.51
Eligible Matches6
Lead Matches0
Lead Win Rate8.3%
Lead Points Retention0.06
Trailing Matches-4
Non-loss rate-0.05
Trailing Win Rate6.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches6
First Half Goals For Mean-0.02
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.23
Second Half Goals For Mean0.29
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.04
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.48
Portability PPG Range0.97
Portability Score-32.36
Rest days-89.77
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest History Matches5
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.02
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match0.80
Current Team ELO81.09
Current Opponent ELO-81.09
Current ELO Difference162.2
Expected score0.23
History Matches6
Residual Mean0.08
Overperformance5.45
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.02

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Palencia CF

L
Cristo Atlético1–0Palencia CF31 Oct · away
Pick: Cristo Atlético 41% · hit
D
Palencia CF1–1Turégano24 Oct · home
Pick: Palencia CF 69% · missed
W
Calasanz de Soria0–1Palencia CF17 Oct · away
Pick: Draw 35% · missed
W
Atlético Astorga0–1Palencia CF29 Aug · away
Pick: Atlético Astorga 41% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Bembibre

D
Bembibre1–1Colegios Diocesanos1 Nov · home
Pick: Bembibre 50% · missed
L
Villaralbo2–0Bembibre24 Oct · away
Pick: Villaralbo 45% · hit
D
Bembibre1–1Arandina17 Oct · home
Pick: Arandina 41% · missed
W
Bembibre2–0La Virgen del Camino4 Oct · home
Pick: Bembibre 37% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Palencia CF and Bembibre meet in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 16:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Palencia CF win 62.0%, draw 19.8%, Bembibre win 18.2%. The pick is Palencia CF win. Over 2.5 goals: 54.8%. Both teams to score: 52.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.