ScoreProb
Gamma Ethniki - Group 7 Greece Group 7 - 7 2026

Panargiakos vs Pelopas Kiatou

Panargiakos Home · Elo 1,360
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Pelopas Kiatou Away · Elo 1,474
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Panargiakos win
Panargiakos winPick
43.0%
Draw
32.5%
Pelopas Kiatou win
24.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes46.7%
No53.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.544.3%
Under 2.555.7%

How much we know

Panargiakos history38 matches
Pelopas Kiatou history27 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (43.0%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Panargiakos are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Pelopas Kiatou are rated 114 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,474 against 1,360. On rating alone Pelopas Kiatou would be expected to take 66% of the points on offer.

  • Pelopas Kiatou score more

    0.61 goals a game over 38 matches for Panargiakos, against 0.81 over 27 for Pelopas Kiatou.

  • Defences are close

    Panargiakos concede 1.66 a game, Pelopas Kiatou 1.52.

  • Pelopas Kiatou games more often go over 2.5 goals

    32% of Panargiakos matches, against 44% for Pelopas Kiatou. The model puts this match at 44% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 25 Apr 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Panargiakos
Pelopas Kiatou@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1360.0
ELO
1474.4
38
ELO · Matches
27
1360.0
Current Team ELO
1474.4
1474.4
Current Opponent ELO
1360.0
-114.4
Current ELO Difference
114.4
0.34
Expected score
0.66
38
History Matches
27
-0.19
Residual Mean
-0.05
37.38
Overperformance
47.18
-0.17
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.06
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
0.40
1.00
Goals for per game
0.40
1.40
Goals against per game
1.80
20.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
0.50
PPG
0.90
0.60
Goals for per game
0.70
1.40
Goals against per game
1.50
10.0%
Win rate
20.0%
0.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.70
0.92
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.10
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
0.66
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.75
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
0.87
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.09
Overall performance9 signals
90
38
Matches
27
0.55
PPG
1.15
7.9%
Win rate
33.3%
31.6%
Draw rate
14.8%
60.5%
Loss rate
51.9%
65.8%
Over 1.5 rate
63.0%
31.6%
Over 2.5 rate
44.4%
23.7%
Over 3.5 rate
22.2%
1.36
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.05
Venue performance10 signals
100
17
Matches
14
0.76
PPG
0.93
17.6%
Win rate
28.6%
23.5%
Draw rate
7.1%
58.8%
Loss rate
64.3%
52.9%
Over 1.5 rate
57.1%
29.4%
Over 2.5 rate
42.9%
17.6%
Over 3.5 rate
28.6%
1.37
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.96
17
History Matches
14
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
0.61
Goals for per game
0.81
50.0%
Scoring rate
44.4%
44.7%
BTTS rate
22.2%
0.53
Goals for per game
0.79
41.2%
Scoring rate
35.7%
29.4%
BTTS rate
21.4%
38
History Matches
27
0.61
Goals Mean
0.81
0.71
Goals Std
1.06
50.0%
Scored 1+ rate
44.4%
7.9%
Scored 2+ rate
25.9%
2.6%
Scored 3+ rate
11.1%
0.53
Venue Goals Mean
0.79
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.66
Goals against per game
1.52
86.8%
Conceding rate
66.7%
1.41
Goals against per game
1.64
76.5%
Conceding rate
78.6%
38
History Matches
27
1.66
Conceded Mean
1.52
1.24
Conceded Std
1.52
44.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
37.0%
21.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
29.6%
1.41
Venue Conceded Mean
1.64
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
13.2%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
55.6%
23.5%
Clean-sheet rate
21.4%
58.8%
Failed-to-score rate
64.3%
13.2%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
55.6%
23.5%
Clean-sheet rate
21.4%
58.8%
Failed-to-score rate
64.3%
13.2%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
38
History Matches
27
0.79
Result entropy
0.90
1.36
Goal Difference Std
2.05
20.96
Stability score
9.92
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
38
Eligible Matches
25
5
Lead Matches
6
40.0%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
0.60
Lead Points Retention
1.00
14
Trailing Matches
8
21.4%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
38
Halftime Coverage Matches
25
0.34
First Half Goals For Mean
0.28
0.76
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.52
0.26
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.52
0.89
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.96
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
197.0
Rest days
214.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
1
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
16
Normal Rest History Matches
17
0.25
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.18
21
Long Rest History Matches
8
0.76
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
1
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
0.38
Portability PPG Std
—
0.75
Portability PPG Range
—
57.01
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
38
Clean History Matches
27
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-114.4
PPG-0.60
GF-0.21
GA0.14
PPG-0.16
PPG0.60
PPG-0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches11
Clean-sheet rate-0.20
Failed-to-score rate-0.06
History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate2.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.05
History Matches11
Goals Mean-0.21
Goals Std-0.35
Scored 1+ rate5.6%
Scored 2+ rate-0.18
Scored 3+ rate-0.08
Venue Goals Mean-0.26
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.18
History Matches11
Conceded Mean0.14
Conceded Std-0.28
Clean-sheet rate-0.20
Conceded 2+ rate7.7%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.09
Venue Conceded Mean-0.23
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-1.08
History Matches11
Result entropy-0.11
Goal Difference Std-0.70
Stability score11.04
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.21
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.22
Eligible Matches13
Lead Matches-1
Lead Win Rate-0.60
Lead Points Retention-0.40
Trailing Matches6
Non-loss rate21.4%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches13
First Half Goals For Mean0.06
First Half Goals Against Mean0.24
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.26
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.07
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Rest days-16.96
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.93
Long Rest History Matches13
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.24
Current Team ELO-114.4
Current Opponent ELO114.4
Current ELO Difference-228.9
Expected score-0.32
History Matches11
Residual Mean-0.14
Overperformance-9.80
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.11

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Panargiakos

D
Miltiadis Pyrgos1–1Panargiakos1 Nov · away
Pick: Miltiadis Pyrgos 40% · missed
D
Panargiakos0–0Ermis Kiveriou24 Oct · home
Pick: Panargiakos 61% · missed
D
Korinthos1–1Panargiakos18 Oct · away
Pick: Korinthos 48% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Pelopas Kiatou

W
Pelopas Kiatou3–0Panthyreatikos1 Nov · home
Pick: Pelopas Kiatou 55% · hit
D
Pelopas Kiatou1–1Miltiadis Pyrgos24 Oct · home
Pick: Miltiadis Pyrgos 40% · missed
W
Ermis Kiveriou0–4Pelopas Kiatou18 Oct · away
Pick: Pelopas Kiatou 36% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Panargiakos and Pelopas Kiatou meet in Gamma Ethniki - Group 7 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Panargiakos win 43.0%, draw 32.5%, Pelopas Kiatou win 24.5%. The pick is Panargiakos win. Over 2.5 goals: 44.3%. Both teams to score: 46.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.