ScoreProb
J3 League Japan Round 16 2026

Parceiro Nagano vs Kamatamare Sanuki

Parceiro Nagano Home · Elo 1,415
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Kamatamare Sanuki Away · Elo 1,423
Nagano U Stadium Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Parceiro Nagano win
Parceiro Nagano winPick
42.1%
Draw
27.2%
Kamatamare Sanuki win
30.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes47.8%
No52.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.544.7%
Under 2.555.3%

How much we know

Parceiro Nagano history64 matches
Kamatamare Sanuki history64 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 20 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 05:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (42.1%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Parceiro Nagano are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,415 against 1,423. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Kamatamare Sanuki score more

    0.80 goals a game over 64 matches for Parceiro Nagano, against 1.00 over 64 for Kamatamare Sanuki.

  • Defences are close

    Parceiro Nagano concede 1.53 a game, Kamatamare Sanuki 1.56.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    41% of Parceiro Nagano matches, against 44% for Kamatamare Sanuki. The model puts this match at 45% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Parceiro Nagano
Kamatamare Sanuki
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1415.3
ELO
1423.3
64
ELO · Matches
64
1415.3
Current Team ELO
1423.3
1423.3
Current Opponent ELO
1415.3
-7.98
Current ELO Difference
7.98
0.49
Expected score
0.51
64
History Matches
64
-0.06
Residual Mean
-0.06
45.16
Overperformance
45.61
0.18
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.12
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
1.20
1.40
Goals for per game
0.80
1.60
Goals against per game
0.80
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.50
PPG
1.40
1.10
Goals for per game
1.20
1.20
Goals against per game
1.20
40.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
0.83
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.98
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
1.47
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.87
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.14
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.26
Overall performance9 signals
90
64
Matches
64
0.95
PPG
1.03
23.4%
Win rate
26.6%
25.0%
Draw rate
23.4%
51.6%
Loss rate
50.0%
62.5%
Over 1.5 rate
68.8%
40.6%
Over 2.5 rate
43.8%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
21.9%
1.65
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.66
Venue performance10 signals
100
32
Matches
32
1.06
PPG
0.84
25.0%
Win rate
18.8%
31.3%
Draw rate
28.1%
43.8%
Loss rate
53.1%
65.6%
Over 1.5 rate
68.8%
43.8%
Over 2.5 rate
37.5%
28.1%
Over 3.5 rate
12.5%
1.48
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.09
32
History Matches
32
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
0.80
Goals for per game
1.00
57.8%
Scoring rate
65.6%
42.2%
BTTS rate
51.6%
0.91
Goals for per game
0.94
71.9%
Scoring rate
65.6%
56.3%
BTTS rate
56.3%
1.33
Goals for per game
1.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
66.7%
33.3%
BTTS rate
66.7%
64
History Matches
64
0.80
Goals Mean
1.00
0.85
Goals Std
0.97
57.8%
Scored 1+ rate
65.6%
17.2%
Scored 2+ rate
23.4%
3.1%
Scored 3+ rate
9.4%
0.91
Venue Goals Mean
0.94
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.53
Goals against per game
1.56
70.3%
Conceding rate
81.3%
1.44
Goals against per game
1.44
71.9%
Conceding rate
87.5%
1.33
Goals against per game
1.00
33.3%
Conceding rate
66.7%
64
History Matches
64
1.53
Conceded Mean
1.56
1.45
Conceded Std
1.36
43.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
37.5%
23.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
20.3%
1.44
Venue Conceded Mean
1.44
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
29.7%
Clean-sheet rate
18.8%
42.2%
Failed-to-score rate
34.4%
28.1%
Clean-sheet rate
12.5%
28.1%
Failed-to-score rate
34.4%
66.7%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
29.7%
Clean-sheet rate
18.8%
42.2%
Failed-to-score rate
34.4%
28.1%
Clean-sheet rate
12.5%
28.1%
Failed-to-score rate
34.4%
29.7%
Clean-sheet rate
18.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
64
History Matches
64
0.94
Result entropy
0.95
1.65
Goal Difference Std
1.66
6.41
Stability score
5.45
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
64
Eligible Matches
64
10
Lead Matches
14
80.0%
Lead Win Rate
64.3%
0.83
Lead Points Retention
0.69
23
Trailing Matches
22
13.0%
Non-loss rate
27.3%
8.7%
Trailing Win Rate
9.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
64
Halftime Coverage Matches
64
0.36
First Half Goals For Mean
0.41
0.70
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.59
0.44
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.59
0.83
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.97
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.79
Rest days
76.79
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
4
1.75
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
36
Normal Rest History Matches
45
0.81
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.96
23
Long Rest History Matches
14
0.96
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.29
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
2.00
PPG
1.33
66.7%
Win rate
33.3%
0.0%
Draw rate
33.3%
33.3%
Loss rate
33.3%
33.3%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
33.3%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.41
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.82
3
Current Competition Matches
3
2.00
Current Competition PPG
1.33
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
6
Competition Season Count
6
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.54
Portability PPG Std
0.14
1.20
Portability PPG Range
0.33
48.10
Portability Score
78.17
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
64
Clean History Matches
64
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-7.98
PPG-0.08
GF-0.20
GA-0.03
PPG0.67
PPG0.22
PPG0.60
PPG0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate10.9%
Failed-to-score rate7.8%
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate15.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.06
History Matches0
Goals Mean-0.20
Goals Std-0.12
Scored 1+ rate-0.08
Scored 2+ rate-0.06
Scored 3+ rate-0.06
Venue Goals Mean-0.03
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.15
History Matches0
Conceded Mean-0.03
Conceded Std0.09
Clean-sheet rate10.9%
Conceded 2+ rate6.3%
Conceded 3+ rate3.1%
Venue Conceded Mean0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.60
History Matches0
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.01
Stability score0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.13
Eligible Matches0
Lead Matches-4
Lead Win Rate15.7%
Lead Points Retention0.14
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate-0.14
Trailing Win Rate0.00
Halftime Coverage Matches0
First Half Goals For Mean-0.05
First Half Goals Against Mean0.11
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.16
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.14
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.00
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.40
Portability PPG Range0.87
Portability Score-30.06
Rest days1.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match0.75
Normal Rest History Matches-9
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.15
Long Rest History Matches9
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.33
Current Team ELO-7.98
Current Opponent ELO7.98
Current ELO Difference-15.95
Expected score-0.02
History Matches0
Residual Mean-0.01
Overperformance-0.46
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.06

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Parceiro Nagano

W
Kanazawa0–2Parceiro Nagano3 Nov · away
Pick: Kanazawa 43% · missed
W
Parceiro Nagano3–1Biwako Shiga31 Oct · home
Pick: Parceiro Nagano 44% · hit
L
Kitakyushu3–1Parceiro Nagano25 Oct · away
Pick: Kitakyushu 46% · hit
L
Parceiro Nagano0–1FC Ryukyu21 Oct · home
Pick: Parceiro Nagano 48% · missed
W
Parceiro Nagano2–1Matsumoto Yamaga18 Oct · home
Pick: Parceiro Nagano 41% · hit

Kamatamare Sanuki

W
Kamatamare Sanuki1–0Matsumoto Yamaga3 Nov · home
Pick: Kamatamare Sanuki 40% · hit
L
Kamatamare Sanuki0–2Nara Club31 Oct · home
Pick: Kamatamare Sanuki 46% · missed
L
Thespakusatsu Gunma1–0Kamatamare Sanuki24 Oct · away
Pick: Kamatamare Sanuki 38% · missed
W
Kamatamare Sanuki3–1Kanazawa21 Oct · home
Pick: Kamatamare Sanuki 40% · hit
L
Kamatamare Sanuki0–3Roasso Kumamoto18 Oct · home
Pick: Kamatamare Sanuki 39% · missed

About this match

Parceiro Nagano and Kamatamare Sanuki meet in J3 League on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 05:00 UTC. The match is played at Nagano U Stadium. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Parceiro Nagano win 42.1%, draw 27.2%, Kamatamare Sanuki win 30.7%. The pick is Parceiro Nagano win. Over 2.5 goals: 44.7%. Both teams to score: 47.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.