ScoreProb
J3 League Japan Round 16 2026

Roasso Kumamoto vs Renofa Yamaguchi

Roasso Kumamoto Home · Elo 1,445
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Renofa Yamaguchi Away · Elo 1,454
Egao Kenko Stadium, Kumamoto Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Roasso Kumamoto win
Roasso Kumamoto winPick
43.6%
Draw
27.7%
Renofa Yamaguchi win
28.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes44.9%
No55.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.545.3%
Under 2.554.7%

How much we know

Roasso Kumamoto history70 matches
Renofa Yamaguchi history66 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 19 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 04:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (43.6%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Roasso Kumamoto are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,445 against 1,454. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.01 goals a game over 70 matches for Roasso Kumamoto, against 1.08 over 66 for Renofa Yamaguchi.

  • Defences are close

    Roasso Kumamoto concede 1.37 a game, Renofa Yamaguchi 1.30.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    41% of Roasso Kumamoto matches, against 47% for Renofa Yamaguchi. The model puts this match at 45% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Roasso Kumamoto
Renofa Yamaguchi
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1444.7
ELO
1454.1
70
ELO · Matches
66
1444.7
Current Team ELO
1454.1
1454.1
Current Opponent ELO
1444.7
-9.41
Current ELO Difference
9.41
0.49
Expected score
0.51
70
History Matches
66
-0.05
Residual Mean
-0.04
46.27
Overperformance
47.02
-0.18
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.13
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
0.60
0.40
Goals for per game
0.80
1.00
Goals against per game
1.60
0.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
0.70
PPG
0.90
0.50
Goals for per game
1.20
1.20
Goals against per game
1.40
10.0%
Win rate
20.0%
0.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.08
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
1.08
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.80
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.33
Overall performance9 signals
90
70
Matches
66
1.06
PPG
1.06
27.1%
Win rate
24.2%
24.3%
Draw rate
33.3%
48.6%
Loss rate
42.4%
65.7%
Over 1.5 rate
68.2%
41.4%
Over 2.5 rate
47.0%
24.3%
Over 3.5 rate
24.2%
1.57
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.18
Venue performance10 signals
100
31
Matches
35
1.13
PPG
0.74
32.3%
Win rate
14.3%
16.1%
Draw rate
31.4%
51.6%
Loss rate
54.3%
61.3%
Over 1.5 rate
68.6%
48.4%
Over 2.5 rate
54.3%
29.0%
Over 3.5 rate
31.4%
1.88
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.18
31
History Matches
35
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.01
Goals for per game
1.08
64.3%
Scoring rate
69.7%
48.6%
BTTS rate
57.6%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.00
48.4%
Scoring rate
65.7%
38.7%
BTTS rate
60.0%
0.00
Goals for per game
0.67
0.0%
Scoring rate
66.7%
0.0%
BTTS rate
33.3%
70
History Matches
66
1.01
Goals Mean
1.08
0.95
Goals Std
0.93
64.3%
Scored 1+ rate
69.7%
30.0%
Scored 2+ rate
30.3%
5.7%
Scored 3+ rate
6.1%
1.00
Venue Goals Mean
1.00
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.37
Goals against per game
1.30
75.7%
Conceding rate
80.3%
1.35
Goals against per game
1.57
77.4%
Conceding rate
88.6%
0.33
Goals against per game
1.33
33.3%
Conceding rate
66.7%
70
History Matches
66
1.37
Conceded Mean
1.30
1.24
Conceded Std
0.89
32.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
42.4%
18.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
6.1%
1.35
Venue Conceded Mean
1.57
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
24.3%
Clean-sheet rate
19.7%
35.7%
Failed-to-score rate
30.3%
22.6%
Clean-sheet rate
11.4%
51.6%
Failed-to-score rate
34.3%
66.7%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
100.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
24.3%
Clean-sheet rate
19.7%
35.7%
Failed-to-score rate
30.3%
22.6%
Clean-sheet rate
11.4%
51.6%
Failed-to-score rate
34.3%
24.3%
Clean-sheet rate
19.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
70
History Matches
66
0.95
Result entropy
0.98
1.57
Goal Difference Std
1.18
4.57
Stability score
2.29
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
67
Eligible Matches
66
14
Lead Matches
19
71.4%
Lead Win Rate
47.4%
0.74
Lead Points Retention
0.60
23
Trailing Matches
19
30.4%
Non-loss rate
21.1%
4.3%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
67
Halftime Coverage Matches
66
0.36
First Half Goals For Mean
0.50
0.51
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.50
0.66
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.58
0.79
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.80
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.75
Rest days
77.79
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
2
1.33
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
42
Normal Rest History Matches
42
0.93
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.12
24
Long Rest History Matches
21
1.29
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.10
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
0.67
PPG
1.00
0.0%
Win rate
33.3%
66.7%
Draw rate
0.0%
33.3%
Loss rate
66.7%
0.0%
Over 1.5 rate
33.3%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
0.47
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.25
3
Current Competition Matches
3
0.67
Current Competition PPG
1.00
-0.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.67
8
Competition Season Count
6
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.28
Portability PPG Std
0.19
0.78
Portability PPG Range
0.40
64.15
Portability Score
72.99
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
70
Clean History Matches
66
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-9.41
PPG0.00
GF-0.06
GA0.07
PPG-0.33
PPG0.39
PPG0.00
PPG-0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate4.6%
Failed-to-score rate5.4%
History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate11.2%
Failed-to-score rate17.3%
History Matches4
Goals Mean-0.06
Goals Std0.02
Scored 1+ rate-0.05
Scored 2+ rate0.00
Scored 3+ rate0.00
Venue Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.58
History Matches4
Conceded Mean0.07
Conceded Std0.36
Clean-sheet rate4.6%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.10
Conceded 3+ rate12.5%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.22
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.28
History Matches4
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std0.39
Stability score2.28
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.08
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.23
Eligible Matches1
Lead Matches-5
Lead Win Rate24.1%
Lead Points Retention0.14
Trailing Matches4
Non-loss rate9.4%
Trailing Win Rate4.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches1
First Half Goals For Mean-0.14
First Half Goals Against Mean0.01
Second Half Goals For Mean0.08
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.01
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.33
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.09
Portability PPG Range0.38
Portability Score-8.84
Rest days-0.04
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match1.33
Normal Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.19
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match0.20
Current Team ELO-9.41
Current Opponent ELO9.41
Current ELO Difference-18.82
Expected score-0.03
History Matches4
Residual Mean-0.01
Overperformance-0.75
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.06

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Roasso Kumamoto

D
Kagoshima United1–1Roasso Kumamoto31 Oct · away
Pick: Kagoshima United 54% · missed
W
Roasso Kumamoto2–1FC Gifu25 Oct · home
Pick: FC Gifu 51% · missed
W
Roasso Kumamoto3–0Gainare Tottori21 Oct · home
Pick: Roasso Kumamoto 49% · hit
W
Kamatamare Sanuki0–3Roasso Kumamoto18 Oct · away
Pick: Kamatamare Sanuki 39% · missed
W
Kochi United0–2Roasso Kumamoto30 Aug · away
Pick: Roasso Kumamoto 49% · hit

Renofa Yamaguchi

D
Renofa Yamaguchi1–1Kagoshima United3 Nov · home
Pick: Kagoshima United 48% · missed
L
Renofa Yamaguchi0–2Kitakyushu31 Oct · home
Pick: Renofa Yamaguchi 36% · missed
W
Matsumoto Yamaga0–2Renofa Yamaguchi25 Oct · away
Pick: Matsumoto Yamaga 45% · missed
L
Ehime FC2–1Renofa Yamaguchi21 Oct · away
Pick: Ehime FC 55% · hit
W
Renofa Yamaguchi2–0Kochi United18 Oct · home
Pick: Renofa Yamaguchi 54% · hit

About this match

Roasso Kumamoto and Renofa Yamaguchi meet in J3 League on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 04:00 UTC. The match is played at Egao Kenko Stadium, Kumamoto. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Roasso Kumamoto win 43.6%, draw 27.7%, Renofa Yamaguchi win 28.7%. The pick is Roasso Kumamoto win. Over 2.5 goals: 45.3%. Both teams to score: 44.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.