ScoreProb
Liga III - Serie 3 Romania Group 3 - 12 2026

Păuleşti vs Plopeni

Păuleşti Home · Elo 1,466
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Plopeni Away · Elo 1,476
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Păuleşti win
Păuleşti winPick
51.0%
Draw
20.7%
Plopeni win
28.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes53.7%
No46.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.558.2%
Under 2.541.8%

How much we know

Păuleşti history38 matches
Plopeni history34 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (51.0%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Păuleşti are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,466 against 1,476. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Păuleşti score more

    1.63 goals a game over 38 matches for Păuleşti, against 1.35 over 34 for Plopeni.

  • Plopeni concede fewer

    Păuleşti concede 1.55 a game, Plopeni 1.26.

  • Păuleşti games more often go over 2.5 goals

    66% of Păuleşti matches, against 47% for Plopeni. The model puts this match at 58% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 6 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Păuleşti
Plopeni@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1466.3
ELO
1476.2
38
ELO · Matches
34
1466.3
Current Team ELO
1476.2
1476.2
Current Opponent ELO
1466.3
-9.83
Current ELO Difference
9.83
0.49
Expected score
0.51
38
History Matches
34
-0.02
Residual Mean
-0.03
48.40
Overperformance
48.11
-0.13
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.10
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
0.80
2.60
Goals for per game
1.40
2.20
Goals against per game
1.20
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
1.30
1.70
Goals for per game
1.70
2.30
Goals against per game
1.00
30.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.70
1.90
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.79
2.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
0.64
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.77
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
2.06
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.33
Overall performance9 signals
90
38
Matches
34
1.32
PPG
1.32
36.8%
Win rate
38.2%
21.1%
Draw rate
17.6%
42.1%
Loss rate
44.1%
76.3%
Over 1.5 rate
64.7%
65.8%
Over 2.5 rate
47.1%
36.8%
Over 3.5 rate
23.5%
2.32
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.87
Venue performance10 signals
100
23
Matches
16
1.57
PPG
1.31
43.5%
Win rate
37.5%
26.1%
Draw rate
18.8%
30.4%
Loss rate
43.8%
73.9%
Over 1.5 rate
62.5%
65.2%
Over 2.5 rate
43.8%
39.1%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
2.60
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.22
23
History Matches
16
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.63
Goals for per game
1.35
68.4%
Scoring rate
70.6%
55.3%
BTTS rate
47.1%
1.96
Goals for per game
1.31
65.2%
Scoring rate
75.0%
47.8%
BTTS rate
56.3%
38
History Matches
34
1.63
Goals Mean
1.35
1.87
Goals Std
1.37
68.4%
Scored 1+ rate
70.6%
39.5%
Scored 2+ rate
35.3%
21.1%
Scored 3+ rate
14.7%
1.96
Venue Goals Mean
1.31
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.55
Goals against per game
1.26
78.9%
Conceding rate
73.5%
1.39
Goals against per game
1.31
69.6%
Conceding rate
81.3%
38
History Matches
34
1.55
Conceded Mean
1.26
1.12
Conceded Std
1.17
52.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
29.4%
18.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
17.6%
1.39
Venue Conceded Mean
1.31
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
21.1%
Clean-sheet rate
26.5%
31.6%
Failed-to-score rate
29.4%
30.4%
Clean-sheet rate
18.8%
34.8%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
21.1%
Clean-sheet rate
26.5%
31.6%
Failed-to-score rate
29.4%
30.4%
Clean-sheet rate
18.8%
34.8%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
21.1%
Clean-sheet rate
26.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
38
History Matches
34
0.96
Result entropy
0.94
2.32
Goal Difference Std
1.87
3.50
Stability score
5.82
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
27
Eligible Matches
23
8
Lead Matches
3
75.0%
Lead Win Rate
66.7%
0.79
Lead Points Retention
0.78
8
Trailing Matches
9
37.5%
Non-loss rate
22.2%
12.5%
Trailing Win Rate
11.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
27
Halftime Coverage Matches
23
0.81
First Half Goals For Mean
0.43
0.52
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.74
0.81
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.65
0.89
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.70
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
93.90
Rest days
100.9
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
20
Normal Rest History Matches
18
0.85
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.22
17
Long Rest History Matches
15
1.94
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.47
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
4
Competition Season Count
4
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.12
Portability PPG Std
0.41
0.24
Portability PPG Range
0.82
80.70
Portability Score
54.97
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
38
Clean History Matches
34
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-9.83
PPG-0.01
GF0.28
GA0.29
PPG0.25
PPG1.00
PPG-0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate-0.05
Failed-to-score rate2.2%
History Matches7
Clean-sheet rate11.7%
Failed-to-score rate9.8%
History Matches4
Goals Mean0.28
Goals Std0.50
Scored 1+ rate-0.02
Scored 2+ rate4.2%
Scored 3+ rate6.3%
Venue Goals Mean0.64
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Std0.11
History Matches4
Conceded Mean0.29
Conceded Std-0.05
Clean-sheet rate-0.05
Conceded 2+ rate23.2%
Conceded 3+ rate0.8%
Venue Conceded Mean0.08
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.13
History Matches4
Result entropy0.02
Goal Difference Std0.45
Stability score-2.31
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.04
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.27
Eligible Matches4
Lead Matches5
Lead Win Rate8.3%
Lead Points Retention0.01
Trailing Matches-1
Non-loss rate15.3%
Trailing Win Rate1.4%
Halftime Coverage Matches4
First Half Goals For Mean0.38
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.22
Second Half Goals For Mean0.16
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.19
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.29
Portability PPG Range-0.58
Portability Score25.73
Rest days-7.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.37
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match0.47
Current Team ELO-9.83
Current Opponent ELO9.83
Current ELO Difference-19.66
Expected score-0.03
History Matches4
Residual Mean0.01
Overperformance0.29
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.03

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Păuleşti

W
Păuleşti3–2Râmnicu Sărat31 Oct · home
Pick: Păuleşti 64% · hit
L
Pucioasa1–0Păuleşti24 Oct · away
Pick: Pucioasa 39% · hit
L
Păuleşti1–3Voința Crevedia17 Oct · home
Pick: Păuleşti 53% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Plopeni

L
Urban Titu3–1Plopeni30 Oct · away
Pick: Plopeni 42% · missed
L
Plopeni3–5Berca24 Oct · home
Pick: Plopeni 59% · missed
L
Plopeni0–3Flacăra Moreni17 Oct · home
Pick: Flacăra Moreni 48% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Păuleşti and Plopeni meet in Liga III - Serie 3 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Păuleşti win 51.0%, draw 20.7%, Plopeni win 28.3%. The pick is Păuleşti win. Over 2.5 goals: 58.2%. Both teams to score: 53.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.