ScoreProb
Liga III - Serie 3 Romania Group 3 - 12 2026

Tunari vs Râmnicu Sărat

Tunari Home · Elo 1,523
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Râmnicu Sărat Away · Elo 1,383
Tunari Stadium Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Tunari win
Tunari winPick
73.8%
Draw
13.9%
Râmnicu Sărat win
12.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes58.3%
No41.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.568.7%
Under 2.531.3%

How much we know

Tunari history48 matches
Râmnicu Sărat history32 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 70–79% band (73.8%). Picks in that band won 76.2% of the time, and the model said 73.9% on average, over 583 matches.

Why Tunari are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Tunari are rated 140 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,523 against 1,383. On rating alone Tunari would be expected to take 69% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.40 goals a game over 48 matches for Tunari, against 1.34 over 32 for Râmnicu Sărat.

  • Tunari concede fewer

    Tunari concede 1.31 a game, Râmnicu Sărat 3.06.

  • Râmnicu Sărat games more often go over 2.5 goals

    56% of Tunari matches, against 81% for Râmnicu Sărat. The model puts this match at 69% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 20 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Tunari
Râmnicu Sărat@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1523.0
ELO
1382.9
48
ELO · Matches
32
1523.0
Current Team ELO
1382.9
1382.9
Current Opponent ELO
1523.0
140.2
Current ELO Difference
-140.2
0.69
Expected score
0.31
48
History Matches
32
0.02
Residual Mean
-0.19
51.46
Overperformance
38.18
0.19
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.00
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
0.80
1.60
Goals for per game
1.60
1.40
Goals against per game
2.00
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
2.00
PPG
0.90
1.70
Goals for per game
1.50
1.20
Goals against per game
2.60
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.12
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.60
0.98
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.74
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.57
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.47
Overall performance9 signals
90
48
Matches
32
1.44
PPG
0.56
39.6%
Win rate
12.5%
25.0%
Draw rate
18.8%
35.4%
Loss rate
68.8%
79.2%
Over 1.5 rate
90.6%
56.3%
Over 2.5 rate
81.3%
29.2%
Over 3.5 rate
59.4%
1.87
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.40
Venue performance10 signals
100
23
Matches
18
1.57
PPG
0.50
47.8%
Win rate
11.1%
13.0%
Draw rate
16.7%
39.1%
Loss rate
72.2%
91.3%
Over 1.5 rate
83.3%
73.9%
Over 2.5 rate
72.2%
39.1%
Over 3.5 rate
55.6%
2.03
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.38
23
History Matches
18
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.40
Goals for per game
1.34
75.0%
Scoring rate
71.9%
54.2%
BTTS rate
68.8%
1.74
Goals for per game
1.22
82.6%
Scoring rate
66.7%
65.2%
BTTS rate
61.1%
48
History Matches
32
1.40
Goals Mean
1.34
1.20
Goals Std
1.16
75.0%
Scored 1+ rate
71.9%
37.5%
Scored 2+ rate
37.5%
18.8%
Scored 3+ rate
21.9%
1.74
Venue Goals Mean
1.22
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.31
Goals against per game
3.06
75.0%
Conceding rate
93.8%
1.48
Goals against per game
3.22
82.6%
Conceding rate
88.9%
48
History Matches
32
1.31
Conceded Mean
3.06
1.10
Conceded Std
1.97
35.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
75.0%
16.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
53.1%
1.48
Venue Conceded Mean
3.22
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
6.3%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
28.1%
17.4%
Clean-sheet rate
11.1%
17.4%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
6.3%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
28.1%
17.4%
Clean-sheet rate
11.1%
17.4%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
6.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
48
History Matches
32
0.98
Result entropy
0.76
1.87
Goal Difference Std
2.40
1.60
Stability score
24.32
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
44
Eligible Matches
22
12
Lead Matches
3
58.3%
Lead Win Rate
33.3%
0.67
Lead Points Retention
0.44
14
Trailing Matches
13
35.7%
Non-loss rate
15.4%
14.3%
Trailing Win Rate
7.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
44
Halftime Coverage Matches
22
0.59
First Half Goals For Mean
0.50
0.61
First Half Goals Against Mean
1.27
0.70
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.77
0.80
Second Half Goals Against Mean
2.09
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
79.90
Rest days
100.9
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
0
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
29
Normal Rest History Matches
14
1.31
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.71
17
Long Rest History Matches
17
1.47
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.47
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
6
Competition Season Count
4
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.54
Portability PPG Std
0.09
1.34
Portability PPG Range
0.17
48.08
Portability Score
85.20
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
48
Clean History Matches
32
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO140.2
PPG0.88
GF0.05
GA-1.75
PPG1.07
PPG1.00
PPG1.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches16
Clean-sheet rate18.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.03
History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate6.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.16
History Matches16
Goals Mean0.05
Goals Std0.04
Scored 1+ rate3.1%
Scored 2+ rate0.0%
Scored 3+ rate-0.03
Venue Goals Mean0.52
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.22
History Matches16
Conceded Mean-1.75
Conceded Std-0.87
Clean-sheet rate18.8%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.40
Conceded 3+ rate-0.36
Venue Conceded Mean-1.74
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.76
History Matches16
Result entropy0.23
Goal Difference Std-0.53
Stability score-22.72
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.07
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.90
Eligible Matches22
Lead Matches9
Lead Win Rate25.0%
Lead Points Retention0.22
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate20.3%
Trailing Win Rate6.6%
Halftime Coverage Matches22
First Half Goals For Mean0.09
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.66
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.07
Second Half Goals Against Mean-1.30
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Portability PPG Std0.45
Portability PPG Range1.16
Portability Score-37.12
Rest days-21.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest History Matches15
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.60
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match1.00
Current Team ELO140.2
Current Opponent ELO-140.2
Current ELO Difference280.3
Expected score0.38
History Matches16
Residual Mean0.21
Overperformance13.28
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.19

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Tunari

W
Tunari7–2Pucioasa31 Oct · home
Pick: Tunari 59% · hit
W
Voința Crevedia0–2Tunari24 Oct · away
Pick: Tunari 48% · hit
W
Tunari4–0Blejoi17 Oct · home
Pick: Tunari 54% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Râmnicu Sărat

L
Păuleşti3–2Râmnicu Sărat31 Oct · away
Pick: Păuleşti 64% · hit
W
Râmnicu Sărat3–2Urban Titu23 Oct · home
Pick: Urban Titu 45% · missed
D
Berca4–4Râmnicu Sărat17 Oct · away
Pick: Râmnicu Sărat 51% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Tunari and Râmnicu Sărat meet in Liga III - Serie 3 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. The match is played at Tunari Stadium. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Tunari win 73.8%, draw 13.9%, Râmnicu Sărat win 12.3%. The pick is Tunari win. Over 2.5 goals: 68.7%. Both teams to score: 58.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.